ANALYSIS

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Crude Oil
MCX :May 2017

Bearish
2 May 10:32:34 IST

S1 –  3110.00

S2 -3060.00

R1 – 3190.00

R2 – 3250.00

 

Nickel
MCX :May 2017

Bullish
2 May 10:32:16 IST

S1 – 610.00

S2 – 602.00

R1 – 627.00

R2 – 635.00

Aluminium
MCX :May 2017

Bullish
2 May 10:31:58 IST

S1 – 123.00

S2 – 122.00

R1 – 124.50

R2 – 126.00

Lead
MCX :May 2017

Bullish
2 May 10:31:40 IST

S1 – 145.50

S2 – 144.50

R1 – 148.00

R2 – 149.00

Zinc
MCX :May 2017

Bullish
2 May 10:31:18 IST

S1 – 169.50

S2 – 168.00

R1 – 172.00

R2 – 173.00

Copper
MCX :June 2017

Bullish
2 May 10:30:56 IST

S1 – 377.00

S2 – 374.00

R1 – 383.00

R2 – 386.00

Silver
MCX :May 2017

Sideways
2 May 10:30:34 IST

S1 – 38800.00

S2 – 38500.00

R1 – 39500.00

R2 – 39900.00

GOLD HEDGE
MCX :July 2017

Sideways
2 May 10:30:11 IST

S1 – 25947.00

S2 – 25837.00

R1 – 26220.00

R2 – 26356.00

Gold
MCX :June 2017

Sideways
2 May 10:29:44 IST

S1 – 28500.00

S2 – 28380.00

R1 – 28800.00

R2 – 28950.00

Gold Mini
MCX :May 2017

Bearish
28 Apr 12:05:05 IST

S1 – 28675.00

S2 – 28550.00

R1 – 28900.00

R2 – 29100.00

Silver Mini
MCX :Apr 2017

Bearish
28 Apr 12:04:38 IST

S1 – 39600.00

S2 – 39000.00

R1 – 40500.00

R2 – 41000.00

MCX Gold under fresh selling; Support seen at 28562 – 05 May 2017

Technically Gold market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.24% to settled at 5069 while prices down 220 rupees.

Now MCX Gold is getting support at 28562 and below same could see a test of 28470 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28820, a move above could see prices testing 28986.

Gold on MCX settled down -0.76% at 28653 pressured by rising U.S. stocks and an agreement that averted a U.S. government shutdown, dampening demand for non-interest paying bullion. U.S. Congressional negotiators hammered out a bipartisan agreement on a spending package to keep the federal government funded through Sept. 30, averting a government shutdown.

Gold briefly moved higher after U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in March from a record high, government data showed, while the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing employment index came in at the lowest since October. Many financial markets in Asia and Europe were closed for the May Day holiday.

Tokyo markets will be closed for three days from Wednesday for a string of holidays known as Golden Week, and many investors take additional time off. U.S. President Donald Trump said he was actively considering breaking up big banks, Bloomberg Television reported.

Trump’s comments could give a push to efforts to revive the Depression-era Glass-Steagall law that separated commercial lending from investment banking. Reviving such a law would require an act by Congress. Money managers increased their net long position in COMEX gold contracts for the sixth straight week to April 25, U.S. government data showed.

Trading Ideas:
–Gold trading range for the day is 28470-28986.
–Gold fell after the dollar edged up as U.S. congressional negotiators hammered out a deal on a spending package to keep the federal government funded through September.
–The U.S. economy grew at its weakest pace in three years in the first quarter as consumer spending almost stalled.
–Data showed Swiss gold exports to Hong Kong, China and India rose in March, while Chinese gold production fell in the first quarter.

 

MCX LEVELS March 27, 2017

Silver

MCX :May 2017

Bullish

27 Mar 12:06:59 IST

S1 41500.00

S2 41300.00

R1 41800.00

R2 42100.00

 

Crude Oil

MCX :Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 12:06:22 IST

S1 3120.00

S2 3090.00

R1 3160.00

R2 3190.00

 

Natural Gas

MCX :Mar 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 12:06:00 IST

S1 198.00

S2 195.00

R1 202.00

R2 204.00

 

Copper

MCX :Apr 2017

Bearish

27 Mar 12:05:27 IST

S1 378.00

S2 376.00

R1 381.00

R2 383.00

 

Nickel

MCX :Mar 2017

Bearish

27 Mar 12:05:03 IST

S1 638.00

S2 630.00

R1 645.00

R2652.00

 

Aluminium

MCX :Mar 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 12:04:40 IST

S1 125.00

S2 124.00

R1 127.00

R2 128.00

 

Lead

MCX :Mar 2017

Bearish

27 Mar 12:04:18 IST

S1 152.00

S2 151.00

R1 153.50

R2 154.50

 

Zinc

MCX :Mar 2017

Bearish

27 Mar 12:03:54 IST

S1 183.50

S2 182.50

R1 184.50

R2 185.50

 

Jeera

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:52:14 IST

S1 18048.33

S2 18232.50

R1 17721.68

R2 17537.50

 

Turmeric

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:51:33 IST

S1 6402.52

S2 6464.00

R1 6293.48

R2 6232.00

 

Cardamom

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:50:49 IST

S1 1382.27

S2 1384.81

R1 1378.58

R2 1376.65

 

Coriander

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:50:18 IST

S1 7447.13

S2 7488.54

R1 7387.04

R2 7355.50

 

Soya Bean

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:49:42 IST

S1 2906.63

S2 2930.64

R1 2871.79

R2 2853.50

 

Soybean Oil

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:49:14 IST

645.66

647.92

642.37

640.65

 

Mustard Seed

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:48:47 IST

3977.86

4002.50

3934.15

3909.50

 

Crude Palm Oil

MCX :Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:48:09 IST

515.28

516.60

512.93

511.60

 

Castor

MCX :Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:47:16 IST

4854.34

4923.50

4731.67

4662.50

 

NCDEX LEVELS March 27, 2017

Cotton Seed Oilcake

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:46:43 IST

2191.29

2199.50

2176.72

2168.50

 

Menthol Oil

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:46:09 IST

976.73

979.70

971.47

968.50

 

Guargum

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:45:40 IST

7998.71

8052.50

7903.30

7849.50

 

Sugar M

NCDEX:Mar 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:45:09 IST

3708.76

3717.50

3693.25

3684.50

 

Maize

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:44:33 IST

1418.29

1422.00

1411.71

1408.00

 

Kapas

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:44:02 IST

1066.41

1070.25

1059.59

1055.75

 

Wheat

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:43:35 IST

1664.82

1672.50

1651.19

1643.50

 

Soya Meal

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:24:43 IST

23671.00

23635.00

23782.00

23845.00

 

Guar Seed

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:17:17 IST

3834.00

3815.00

3895.00

3923.00

 

Cotton

MCX :Apr 2017

Sideways

27 Mar 11:16:48 IST

21483.00

21433.00

21594.00

21643.00

 

Gold Mini

MCX :Apr 2017

Bullish

27 Mar 10:49:50 IST

28600.00

28375.00

29000.00

29250.00

 

Silver Mini

MCX :Apr 2017

Bullish

27 Mar 10:49:32 IST

40700.00

39850.00

41650.00

42000.00

 

Barley

NCDEX:Apr 2017

Bullish

27 Mar 10:35:35 IST

1585.00

1575.00

1610.00

1620.00

 

GOLD HEDGE

MCX :March 2017

Bullish

27 Mar 10:21:38 IST

25950.00

25810.00

26180.00

26310.00

 

 EURUSD Weekly Analysis – March 25, 2017

EURUSD is testing the resistance of the price channel on daily chart. As long as the channel resistance holds, the price action from 1.0340 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.1616 (May 3, 2016 high), and another fall towards 1.0000 could be expected after the consolidation. On the upside, a clear break above the channel resistance will indicate that the downtrend had completed at 1.0340 already, then next target would be at 1.1100 area.

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – March 25, 2017 

GBPUSD is forming a sideways consolidation in a trading range between 1.1946 and 1.2774. As long as the pair is below 1.2774 key resistance, the long term downtrend from 1.5016 could be expected to resume and another fall to 1.1500 area to complete the downward movement is possible.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – March 25, 2017 

AUDUSD failed to break above 0.7778 resistance again and pulled back to 0.7600 area, indicating that lengthier consolidation for the uptrend from 0.7158 is needed. However, as long as the pair stays above 0.7490 support, another rise to retest 0.7778 resistance is still possible. On the downside, a breakdown below 0.7490 support will indicate that the uptrend from 0.7158 is complete, then the following downward movement could bring price back to 0.7200 zone.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – March 25, 2017 

USDJPY broke below 111.58 support, indicating that the downtrend from 118.66 has resumed. Further decline could be expected over the next several weeks and next target would be at 105.00 area. Near term resistance is at 113.00, as long as this level holds, the downtrend will continue.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – March 25, 2017

USDCAD stays in a ascending price channel on daily chart, implying that the pair remains in uptrend from 1.2968, and the fall from 1.3534 would possibly be correction of the uptrend. As long as the pair is in the channel, the uptrend could be expected to continue and next target would be at 1.3800 area. Only a clear break below the channel support could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

Russia bans import of Egyptian Vegetables and Fruits

Russia has banned the imports of Fruits and Vegetables from Egypt due to sanitary concerns. The imports of Egyptian plant products will be banned from 22 September 2016, said Rosselkhoznadzor, the state agricultural safety agency.
Russia informed that the ban will continue till the Egypt’s authorities take steps to ensure their safety. Bans on Agricultural imports has been slapped by Russia in the past, amid political or economic disputes with other nations citing sanitary reasons.
The decision was taken by Russia after the change of regulations on Wheat imports by Egypt which has affected the Russian Wheat imports. Egypt had decided to ban any ergot fungus in imported Wheat. Egypt is the biggest buyer of Russian Wheat and Russia is a top export market for Egyptian fruits.
The agriculture ministry of Egypt said that a high level committee has been formed to try and resolve trade standoff with Russia over agricultural commodities. A team will be send by Egypt to Russia at the end of September to discuss the trade standoff, just ahead of the start of its citrus export season, they added.

Gold forecast for the week of September 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

The gold markets fell during the course of the week, testing the $1300 level. With this being the case, the market looks as if it is going to continue to try to drop from here, but I believe that there is a certain amount of support near the $1280 level, so any type of bounce from there would more than likely be an opportunity to go long again. I am bullish of gold for longer-term, but I recognize that volatility is going to be the mainstay of this market in the near term.

 

Silver forecast for the week of September 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

Silver markets initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but then turned back around to form a bit of a negative candle. The $18 level below could be supportive though, so let’s see whether or not there is a supportive candle that we consider going long. If we do break down below the $18 level, at that point time I feel that the market will probably reach down to the $16 level. Ultimately, I prefer to go long if I have a signal to do so, but I have to wait for it to happen.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of September 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil
The WTI Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but turn right back around to fall rather significantly. We are below the $44 level now, and as a result it’s likely that the market should reach towards the $40 level. That’s an area that I believe will offer support, so we could get a bit of a bounce as we grind down there. However, it’s probably be easier to do this on the daily chart, or perhaps even shorter-term charts. Ultimately, this is a market that looks as if it is trying to roll over at this point in time and of course with the IEA suggesting that there is going to be a glut in supply all the way through 2017, that’s yet another reason to think that oil markets will continue to look overly soft going forward.
Brent
Brent markets also trying to rally during the course of the week, but struggled at the $48 handle in order to turn things back around and form a negative candle. I believe that if we break down below the bottom of the range for the week, we should reach down to the $44 level, and then eventually the $40 level. However, I think if we find quite a bit of negative pressure, we will not only test that $40 level, I believe that we will break down even lower than that. Ultimately, we could grind our way all the way down to the $28 level given enough time.
Pay attention to the US dollar of course, because a stronger US dollar will typically work against the value of the Brent market as well as the WTI Crude Oil market. With this being the case, I think that both of these markets will have to be paid attention to, along with the currency issues. With this, I am starting to get more bearish again, but realize we could see quite a bit of volatility in the meantime as we are most certainly in the middle of a consolidation area.

Natural Gas forecast for the week of September 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets rose during the course of the week, testing the $3 level. I believe at this point in time that the $3 level is a massive barrier, but if we break above there the natural gas market should then reach to the $3.40 handle. However, that’s a pretty massive barrier that we have to get over so we need to at least see a daily close above there before I start buying. In the meantime, you have to assume that we are still simply consolidating.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of September 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair fell during the course of the week, breaking the bottom of the shooting star from the previous week that had touched the 0.75 handle. The fact that we have done this, I believe the market is ready to pull back. Pulling back from here makes sense as we have seen quite a bit of bullish pressure. With this being the case though, I think that it’s only matter of time for the buyers return. So having said that I think of this more or less as a sign to step back in wait for support in order to go long yet again. I think it’s going to be choppy, so therefore it’s going to be difficult to deal with from time to time, so therefore you have to look at this market from a very long-term perspective. Because of this, I am much more comfortable buying this market been selling it, and I believe that the “floor” in this market should be the 0.70 level. A break down below there would be a very negative sign and then have me thinking that the New Zealand dollar would breakdown longer term.
At this point in time, sooner or later we will get the right supportive candle to start buying, and therefore I would be willing to jump into this market. If we can break above the 0.75 handle, I think that’s a longer-term buying opportunity as well, perhaps sending the New Zealand dollar towards the 0.80 level. While I don’t necessarily think that the economies around the world are taking off, the New Zealand dollar should still continue to do fairly well if nothing else due to the interest-rate differential between the currencies. Quite a bit of choppiness is coming in my estimation, so having said that some people may be more comfortable trading the short-term charts and simply scalping, but that’s not necessarily my style so I feel that we have to make a decision based upon longer-term charts and simply deal with the nausea that comes.

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of September 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but found enough resistance above the 115 level in order to find sellers. We ended up turning things back around to form a relatively negative candle, and as a result of the query we continue to grind back and forth. If we do break down below the 114 level though, I feel that the market will reach down towards the 111 level. At this point, I believe that it is probably going to be easier to trade this market on short-term charts.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of September 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair initially trying to pull back a little bit during the course of the week, but then broke above the 0.85 handle. Because of this, the market looks as if it is ready to continue going higher, as the British pound continues to get absolutely pummeled over the longer term due to the vote to leave the European Union. With this, I think we will continue to go higher, but more than likely it’s going to be easier to deal with on short-term charts rather than long.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of September 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the week, essentially settling on a neutral candle. This neutral candle tells us just how uninspired this market is at the moment. We have been consolidating between the 100 level on the bottom, and the 105 level on the top. Ultimately, I think sooner or later we will find enough buyers to turn this market back around, especially considering that the Bank of Japan has put a bit of a “line in the sand” near the 100 handle. With this, I’m simply waiting for the right buying opportunity.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of September 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair fell during the course of the week, slicing through the 0.75 handle. The fact that we have broken down there suggests that we could see quite a bit of negativity but at this point in time I think there are more than enough support of areas below that should keep this market difficult to deal with from the longer-term perspective. Ultimately, I think that you will probably have to trade this market off of the short-term charts, or perhaps even sit on the sidelines as the market has to figure itself out.

 

GBP/USD forecast for the week of September 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the week but turned right back around to form a negative candle. It appears that we are going to continue to see some type of consolidation between the 1.35 level above, and the 1.2850 level on the bottom. Now that the volume is starting to pick up after the summer break, I believe that the market is eventually going to break down and reach towards the 1.25 handle. Ultimately, I believe that rallies will continue to be selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion again and again.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of September 19, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week and then fell rather significantly towards the 1.1150 level. A break down below there should send this market looking for the 1.10 level given enough time, but having said that I think that you may be better served to offer short-term charts if you are trying to short the Euro. However, there is a possibly we get a bit of a bounce, so quite frankly it’s always impossible to deal with this market from a longer-term perspective at this point.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – September 18, 2016

USDCAD is facing the resistance of the price channel on daily chart. A clear break above the channel resistance could bring price to 1.3600 zone. Near term support is at 1.3100, a breakdown below this level could trigger another fall to the bottom of the channel.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – September 18, 2016

USDJPY stayed in a trading range between 98.97 and 107.48 for several months. As long as 107.48 resistance holds, the price action in the trading range could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 123.75 (Nov 18, 2015 high), and another fall towards 90.00 is possible after consolidation.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – September 18, 2016

AUDUSD broke below 0.7489 support, indicating that the upward movement from 0.7144 had completed at 0.7755 already. The pair is now in downtrend. Further decline could be expected over the next several weeks, and next target would be at 0.6900 area. Resistance is at 0.7755, only break above this level could trigger another rise to 0.8000 zone.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – September 18, 2016

GBPUSD failed to break above 1.3480 resistance, and stayed in the trading range between 1.2795 and 1.3480. Deeper decline to test 1.2795 support would likely be seen next week, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the downtrend from 1.5016, then next target would be at 1.2000 zone.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – September 18, 2016

EURUSD is facing the support of the price channel on daily chart. A clear break below the channel support will indicate that the upward movement from 1.0911 had completed at 1.1366 already, then the following downward movement could bring price to 1.0600 zone. However, as long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and further rise to 1.2000 area is still possible.

 

Gold Fundamental Analysis – week of August 29, 2016 – Forecast

Gold took a hit after Stanley Fischer spoke after Janet Yellen and indicated that the Fed is considering two rate increases this year. Gold reversed course and lost 1.15% for the week to trade at 1324.95 but remains within its trading range. The dollar rallied, then plunged, and rebounded against other major currencies an hour later as traders worked through the implications of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Yellen said the performance of the U.S. economy and the outlook for inflation are giving the central bank more scope to raise interest rates, yet at the same time said monetary tightening will be gradual. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer shed more light later, saying a rate increase in September is possible.
Gold rose as much as 1.6 percent after Yellen said that while the case for a rate hike has strengthened recently, a gradual increase will be appropriate “over time,” initially easing concerns that the Fed would make a move next month. The gains were all but erased after Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said her remarks leave open the possibility of boosting rates in September. The odds of an interest rate increase in September climbed to 40 percent, from 32 percent on Thursday, according to Fed funds data.

Oil Fundamental Analysis – week of August 29, 2016 – Forecast

Crude Oil ended the week at the bottom of its trading range after a mid-week rally on hopes from the OPEC meeting. Oil will enter the new week at 47.44 with a loss for the week of 2.25% and is a strong buy moving into the week. The deals follow a period of relative quiet as buyers and sellers failed to agree on valuations amid oil’s decline. North America, home to many higher-cost shale drillers, saw the fewest transactions last year since 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Benchmark Brent crude averaged $35.21 a barrel in the first quarter of 2016, the lowest in more than a decade.
More than $11 billion of transactions were announced globally in July as crude’s recovery fueled hopes of a steadier market, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said. That’s the highest monthly total this year and brings the amount since May to $32 billion, triple that of the previous three months. Dealmaking will continue to accelerate as oil prices stabilize, according to the consulting firm.
Oil futures have rallied more than 10 percent since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said it would hold informal talks in Algeria in late September, fueling expectations it could revive a pact on freezing production. Banks from Citigroup Inc. to Bank of America Merrill Lynch see a simpler explanation for the rebound: the global oil oversupply is finally dissipating.
OPEC is unlikely to agree on a freeze next month as the same political rivalry between Gulf members Saudi Arabia and Iran that thwarted a similar initiative in April remains an obstacle, analysts from Citigroup to Commerzbank AG say.
Signals from producers that the group may act are simply “jawboning” to push prices higher, Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

Natural Gas Fundamental Analysis – week of August 29, 2016 – Forecast

Natural Gas soared at the end of the week to trade at 2.894 reversing losses after a smaller inventory than expected. The climbing dollar limited gains with the commodity gaining 12% for the week and is a strong buy into the new week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration early Thursday reported that supplies of the commodity rose 11 billion cubic feet for the week ended August 19. That was slightly below the average rise of 18 billion cubic feet expected by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts.
But “a small figure was largely priced in throughout the week and heading into the report, with several of the most recent estimates even seeing a single-digit as a possibility,” Joseph George, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric reported.
“Strong production figures are weighing on the market as well, and holding off an additional rally on top of what we’ve seen in recent days,” he said. “Even though temperatures are expected to remain warm over the next two weeks, continually elevated supply relative to recent months is helping to counter the additional demand.”
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday that natural-gas stockpiles grew by 11 billion cubic feet last week, less than the 19 bcf expected by forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. That addition is one-sixth of the average addition for that week of the year.
Inventories stand 12% above the five-year average for this time of year, a much smaller surplus compared with several months ago. That improving balance has been the driving force behind gas-price gains in the spring and summer that keep it hovering near one-year highs, said Peter Donovan, broker for Liquidity Energy in New York.
Aug 26 -Sept 1st: High pressure will dominate the southern and eastern US through next week with temperatures mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Although, it’s expected to remain unsettled over the west-central US into the Midwest through the weekend as weather systems bring showers, thunderstorms, and modest cooling. With warm upper level high pressure strengthening east of the Rockies, nat gas demand will remain stronger than normal. Finally, a tropical system over the Bahamas will approach the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Overall, nat gas demand will be MODERATE becoming HIGH.
FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

The Week Ahead – All the Things You Need to Know

On Monday 12:30 GMT US PCE Index will be published. The price index for consumer spending on the month in June of 2016 is expected to rise by 0.1% MoM.
On Monday 23:30 GMT Japan unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.1%.
On Tuesday 09:00 GMT Euro zone Business confidence will be released. Forecast are for a decrease to 0.25 from 0.39.
Germany Inflation rate will also be published on Tuesday at 12:00 GMT. The YoY figure is forecast to hold steady at 0.4%. MoM German inflation rate is expected to fall to 0.2%, a decrease from 0.3% released last month.
On Wednesday 7:55 GMT Germany unemployment rate for August is expected to remain at 6.1%. The unemployment change for August is forecast to fall by 3000 compare to a higher drop of 7000 in July.
Eurozone Unemployment rate will be release on Wednesday 9:00 GMT. Forecasts for EU unemployment rate remain at 10.0%, a minor decrease from last month – 10.1%.
US ADP Unemployment change will be an important indicator for US economy strength. The data will be released on Wednesday at 12:15 GMT and can shed lights on US nonfarm payrolls data that will be released on Friday. US economy will be in the spotlight after Janet Yellen speech last Friday. The takeaway from the speech and the market action indicates that the Fed wants to raise interest rates, but they want everything to be perfect before they do that.
Canadian GDP – On Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, Canadian growth for second quarter is expected to shrink by -0.9% from an increase of 0.6% in previous quarter. The annualized rate for Q2 is also expected to shrink by -1.00% compare to 2.4% last year.
On Thursday 1:00 GMT China manufacturing & non manufacturing PMI will be published. Figure for manufacturing PMI forecast to a slight drop of 49.5 compare to 49.9. Non manufacturing PMI is also expected to drop to 52.7 compare to 53.9. On the same day, figure for China Caixin manufacturing PMI will be published at 1:45 GMT is forecast to decline to 48.9 compare to 50.6.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – The data will come out at 2:00 GMT and expected to rise to 53.2 from 52.6 previously.
On Friday 05:00 GMT Japan Consumer Confidence is forecast to rise to 41.44 from 41.3.
Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment data – US labor is forecast to increase by 190K compare to the high data that was released last month – 255,000. Additionally, unemployment change forecast to remain as previous month at 4.9%. US balance of trade is expected to narrow to 43 billion compare to 44.51 billion.

Oil Prices Fall as Iraq, Iran & Venezuela See New Measures At OPEC Meeting In September

There was an interesting analysis published over the weekend on trends in oil prices. The author determined that oil prices will not exceed $60 per barrel. The article reports that oil prices will not exceed $60 a barrel in the short-term perspective, according to the forecasts of the British economic research and consulting company Capital Economics.
The forecasts, published in analysts’ weekly commodity report, obtained by Trend, show that Brent price will stay at $45 a barrel in the third and fourth quarters of this year, then reaching $50 a barrel in the first quarter and $55 a barrel in the second quarter of the next. In the third quarter of 2016, analysts expect Brent price at $58 a barrel.
Crude Oil started off Monday at 47.10 and Brent oil was unable to remain above the $50 price level. The stronger US dollar might weigh on prices today. Speculators were selling off to book profits paying little attention to OPEC members rhetoric.
Reuters said that Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih that the Kingdom does not believe any significant intervention in the market is necessary “other than to allow the forces of supply and demand to do the work for us.” He said the “market is moving in the right direction” already.
The informal OPEC meeting is expected in late September in Algeria. It is expected that the talks on oil production freeze will be held between OPEC and non-OPEC countries.
In an unexpected announcement Iraq said it is willing to play an active role within OPEC to support oil prices, said on Saturday, without clarifying whether it was prepared to back a possible agreement to freeze output.
“Iraq is seeking to play an active role in order to support oil prices while preserving a share that is proportionate to its reserves,” the minister said during a visit to the southern oil city of Basra, according to oil ministry spokesman Asim Jihad.
At the same time, Iranian Oil Minister Zanganeh said Iran will work with other OPEC members to support oil prices, but it will not move from its goal of restoring output lost due to years of economic sanctions.
“Iran will cooperate with OPEC on improving prices and the state of the crude market, but we expect our right to restore our lost market share to be considered,” Zanganeh said, according to the ministry’s SHANA news service. “Iran had no role in disrupting the stability of the oil market,” he said. “When the instability occurred in the market [in 2014], Iran’s oil exports were less than 1 million barrels per day.”
Recent data shows that Since sanctions were lifted in January, Tehran has doubled oil exports to 2.7 million barrels per day. Its total output has risen from as low as 1 million barrels a day under sanctions to 3.6 million in July, not far from Iran’s pre-sanctions output level of 4 million.
Venezuela said it expects new quotas to stabilize oil markets and strengthen OPEC to be announced at the September meeting. Venezuela’s Maduro was meeting with Iran’s foreign minister and said the two nations agreed to cooperate to boost oil prices.

Gold forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

Gold markets initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support near the 1320 level to turn things around and form a bit of a hammer. I like gold overall, but the couple of proceeding shooting stars tells me that the market is probably going to have a bit of consolidating to do before we can really breakout. Once we get above the 1360 level however, I feel at that point in time the market will continue its longer-term trajectory to the upside. I have no interest in selling.

 

Silver forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

Silver markets fell during the course of the we, crashing through the $19 level but did find a bit of support at the $18.50 level. I still believe that the $18 level below will be a bit of a “floor”, and as a result it’s probably only a matter of time before buyers return. However, we do not have anything on this chart that suggests that you should start buying right now. With that being the case, I am patient, but I do recognize that sooner or later we should get a nice buying opportunity.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil
The WTI Crude Oil market initially fell during the course of the week but have seen quite a bit of strength return as we ended up forming a bit of a hammer. The hammer sits just below the $50 level, so I think that is a major barrier the way going to have to try to overcome in order to continue the upward momentum. However, based upon this candlestick I would say that there is a relatively decent chance that we eventually do. If we do, I feel that $55 will probably be the next move. Pullbacks at this point in time will be difficult to sell, lease from the longer-term perspective. Quite frankly, the oil markets are extraordinarily dangerous at the moment as we have seen such volatility over the last several months.
 
Brent
Brent markets look even stronger, as we have formed a hammer at the extreme highs. I believe that sooner or later we will break out and if we do the market should continue to go higher at that point. I realize that a lot of the strengthen oil is due to a lack of drilling next year, but we have to wonder whether or not demand is going to be there. At this point in time, I feel that the market could very well correct itself violently so I am very cautious when it comes to this particular market. I think that $55 will be the next target speaking logically and thinking of longer and whole numbers, but at this point in time even if we pull back I think I would be hesitant to sell simply because there has been such an impulsive move higher. Quite frankly, this looks like a market that is ready to break out with just the slightest bit of good news and let’s face it, it really wouldn’t take much at this point in time as we have seen such a strong turn around. With this, I believe that $55 will probably be targeted.

Natural Gas forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas markets rose during the course of the week, breaking above the $2.80 level. We have used in the $2.50 level as support, so it makes sense that the large, round, psychologically significant number could be a bit of a “floor” in this market in the short term. However, we have the three dollars’ level just above which of course looms large as well. With this being the case, I believe that it is probably best to trade this market off of the short-term chart, although in general I think where going to see consolidation anyway.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar initially tried to rally during the course of the week be as you can see has turned completely around and ended up forming a shooting star which of course is a very negative sign. Because of that, the market could very well pullback from here and look for the 0.70 level below. A break above the top of the shooting star is of course a very bullish sign, and would have longer-term buyers heading into the marketplace. At this point in time though, it looks like we’re going to continue to grind sideways overall.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair fell during the course of the we, we did find enough support below to turn things back around and form a bit of a hammer. By doing so, the market looks as if it is ready to bounce but I think there is a significant amount of resistance that will have to overcome in order for to do so for any real length of time. Recognize that the 150 level above is psychological resistance, so this point in time am actually looking for short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion in order to start selling.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair fell significantly during the course the week but found enough support at the 0.85 level to suddenly stop. With this being the case, I think that sooner or later the buyers will return and on the first signs of a bounce or supportive candle am willing to go along. After all, the British pound is without a down the least favored currency out of major currencies in the markets right now. Because of this, I believe it’s only a matter of time for this market continues to climb. However, we are a bit overextended so a pullback makes complete sense.

 

USD/CAD forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

At this point in time, it looks as if the US dollars trying to make its final stand against the Canadian dollar. We have had a slightly positive week, and it appears that there is interest somewhere just below the 1.30 level. If we can break above there, I feel that this pair can go much higher but it’s also going to have to get a little bit of help from the oil markets. Remember, as oil goes lower, this pair tends to go higher and vice versa.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USDJPY pair closed weekend trading above 99.9757 levels in order to get a good support base that reinforces the expectations of continuing the bullish bias and providing signals for the price recovery in the upcoming days.

This is supported by stochastic positivity that appears clearly on the daily time frame and seen rising above 58.0 levels.

The pair remains bullish for the moment with pair trading on rebound and that makes the trading settle at the support area that appears in the chart.

Some consolidations would be seen with bullish momentum and further rise is expected from current levels with price action signaling engulfing bar reversal on the new found support area.

With the beginning of the new trend, the first main target is located at 103.9532, pointing that breaking 105.3852 levels besides holding above that level will push the price to resume being bullish with its next target located at 106.3890.

Economic

Consumer Confidence, ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims
ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Prices Paid
Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls, Trade Balance
Unemployment Rate, Jobs/applicants ratio, Overall Household Spending
Large Retailer’s Sales, Retail Trade, Industrial Production, Foreign bond investment
Area of Interest

Strong support at 99.9757 areas and closed above rebound of trend line.
Bullish engulfing bar reversal strongly closing above the support area.
Price action closed above rebound of trend line and oscillator rising above 58.0 levels indicating shift in momentum.
At Flip Area on Daily time frame support levels.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned right back around to form a shooting star. We have formed three of these in a row now, and as a result a looks like we may struggle going forward. However, we have a hammer proceeding these three shooting star so that doesn’t mean that is necessarily going to roll over easily. With this, I think you can have the stick short-term charts, and of course pay attention to the gold markets as they have such a major influence on the Aussie dollar.

 

GBP/USD forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the we, but gave back some of the gains towards the end of the session on Friday. With this being the case, looks as if anytime we rally, there will be sellers willing to step into this market. I believe that the 1.35 level continues to be a bit of a “ceiling” in this market, and therefore have no interest in buying at all. In a short-term selling is probably the best way to play the British pound at the moment, at least until the volume comes back into the marketplace from the holiday season.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of August 29, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned right back around to form a bit of a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a negative sign, so having said that I feel that will probably drift lower. However, I’m not willing to risk any longer-term trades in this market at the moment. I think that this is the domain of short-term traders, especially considering that the volume probably isn’t up to par at the moment. With this, I’m looking for short-term negativity.

 

Gold forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

Gold markets initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned right back around to form a shooting star. This of course is a very negative candle, but I do believe that there is a massive amount of support below, especially near the $1300 level. If we can break above the top of the shooting star for the week, that’s a buying opportunity as well. However, it’s probably easier to trade this market from the daily chart than the weekly chart. Either way though, I have no interest whatsoever in selling.

 

Silver forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

Silver markets initially tried to rally during the course the week but turned right back around to form a bit of a shooting star. Ultimately, this is a market that looks like it is consolidating at the moment, but we have seen quite a bit of bullish pressure below, so it’s very likely that sooner or later we will continue to go long in this market. I have no interest in selling, and believe that the “floor” is somewhere closer to the $18 handle below. Ultimately, I believe the buyers will return.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil
The WTI Crude Oil market initially fell during the course of the week, testing the $39 level below for support. We did in fact find that support, and bounced enough to form a hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign, so we very well could get a bit of a bounce from here. However, there are a lot of concerns about the demand for crude oil, so at this point in time I’m actually expecting some type of exhaustive candle above. With this being the case, I believe that any long position that you take in this market will have to be from the short-term charts. Ultimately, this is a market that is reacting on Friday due to a stronger than anticipated jobs number out of America. However, there are many other issues out there at the moment, so it’s very likely that sellers will return.
Brent
Brent markets initially fell during the course of the week as well, but turned right back around just above the $41 level to form a nice-looking hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign and it’s likely that we could get a bit of a bounce from here. However, the $52 level above should be massively resistive, so I feel it’s only a matter of time before the markets form some type of resistive candle. That resistive candle of course is a selling opportunity, but I also believe break down below the bottom of the hammer would also be a nice selling opportunity. Ultimately, I anticipate that it’s probably easier to trade this market on a shorter-term chart, as I believe that given enough time it’s probably going to be a market that jobs back and forth in a relatively tight market, as we have to figure out what’s going on with several the world economies, but also have to worry about whether or not the US dollar continues to go higher which should of course looks like it will. With this, short-term charts are probably the best way.

Natural Gas forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

Natural Gas markets initially fell during the course of the week but did find a little bit of footing towards the end. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to grind sideways overall, so at this point in time it makes sense that we will simply go sideways. Longer-term traders will probably have to wait for either break above the $3 level to start buying, or break down below the $2.60 level to start selling. In the meantime, short-term trades are probably about as good as this market is going to give.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but turned around to form a fairly exhaustive looking shooting star. Because of this, I believe that the market will continue to bounce around in France drift lower, but I also recognize that the 0.70 level below is massively supportive. With this being the case, I feel that the market will eventually find buyers below, but it’s probably easier to trade this market basically off of the short-term charts, as there is a fairly tight feel that this market currently.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair fell during the course of the week, breaking down to the 112.50 region. This is a market that looks like it is ready to continue going lower, perhaps reaching down to the 111 level given enough time. However, that isn’t much in the way of room on the longer-term charts, so I prefer to short this market off of shorter-term charts, perhaps the daily chart, or even possibly lower time frames than that. Ultimately, I do think we test the 111 level yet again, and an attempt to finally break down.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but eventually bounced enough to form a nice-looking hammer. The hammer touching the 0.85 level of course. If we can break above there, the market should continue to go much higher and it makes sense as the British pound of course is being shunned buying the worlds traders. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to go much higher, as the British pound of course brings in so much uncertainty with the voting to leave the European Union.

 

USD/CAD forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course the week but found quite a bit of support at the 1.30 level. Ultimately, we rally enough to continue the uptrend, and the uptrend line looks very healthy. With this, it appears that the US dollar is getting ready to break out against the Canadian dollar, and quite frankly that makes sense due to the fact that the United States had a fairly strong jobs number while the Canadians actually subtracted jobs from last month. With this, and the fact that oil looks a bit soft, it makes quite a bit of sense we continue to go higher.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week, but bounced enough to form a nice-looking hammer. This of course makes quite a bit of sense as the US jobs report was much stronger than anticipated. In fact, right above the top of the hammer should send this market looking for the 105 handle. Given enough time, it’s very likely that the market will eventually continue to go higher as the 100 level below will attract the Bank of Japan, and possible intervention in this market or at least further quantitative easing.

 

GBP/USD forecast for the week of August 8, 2016, Technical Analysis

The British pound initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but turn right back around to form a bit of a shooting star. By doing so, it looks as if the markets are going to continue to be negative in every time we rally it’s likely that the market will continue to find resistance that we can start falling apart on. Because of this, I’m looking for selling opportunities but I am actually looking for them on short-term charts, as I believe there is far too much support just below to try to hang onto a longer-term selling position.

 

Weekly MCX Market Report on Bullion, Metals and Energy

MCX Comdex was up by 0.90% to 3122.10 point while MCX Metal was up by 0.91% to 4634.83 point, MCX Energy was down by 0.77% to 2261.35 point. MCX Agri was up by 4.08% to 2442.54 point.

 

Bullion

 

Gold Aug 16 contract was down by 2.90% to Rs.30895.00 per 10 gram. Gold Oct 16 contract was down by 2.89% to Rs.31424.00 per 10 gram. Gold Dec 16 contract was down by 3.06% to Rs.31599.00 per 10 gram. Goldguinea July 16 contract was down by 1.99% to Rs.24896.00 per 8 grams while GoldPetal July 16 contract was down by 2.37% to Rs.3085.00 per gram. Silver Sept 16 contract was up by 1.31% to Rs.47509.00 and Silver Dec contract was up by 1.52% to Rs.48745.00 per kg. Silver March 17 contract was up by 1.85% to Rs.49940.00 per kg.

 

Metal

 

Copper Aug 2016 contract was up by 4.53% to Rs.333.50 per kg, Nickel July 16 contract was up by 5.65% to Rs.691.70 per kg, Aluminium July 16 contract was up by 1.49% to Rs.112.10 per kg, Lead July 16 contract was up by 3.64% to Rs.126.70 per kg and Zinc June 16 contract was up by 3.65% to Rs.146.40 per kg.

 

Energy

 

Crude oil July 16 contract was down by 0.56% to Rs.3046.00 per BBL and Crude Oil Mini July 16 was down by 0.59% to Rs.3045.00 per BBL while Natural gas July 16 contract down by 2.14% to Rs.183.20 per MMBTU.

 

Agriculture

 

Cotton July 16 contract was up by 9.74% to Rs.23650.00 per bales while CPO July 16 contract was down by 0.84% to Rs.497.30per 10 kg. Cardamom July 16 contract was down by 1.12% to Rs.806.10 per kg while Mentha Oil July 16 contract was up by 3.08% to Rs.858.90 per kg.

 

 

Gold forecast for the week of July 18, 2016, Technical Analysis

Gold markets fell significantly during the course of the week, testing the $1320 level. I believe that this market has quite a bit of support below though, so if we continue to drop from here I am going to start looking for some type of supportive candle or bounce or other reason to go long. I have no interest whatsoever in selling this market, I believe gold will be one of the better performers over the next several years, especially if we can get above the $1400 level above.

 

Silver forecast for the week of July 18, 2016, Technical Analysis

Silver markets went back and forth during the course of the week, hanging around the $20 level overall. This neutral candle suggests that perhaps we will have to pull back and build up a bit of momentum in order to continue going higher. I think at this point in time, the $18 level should be the “floor” in this market, and as a result I think from a longer-term perspective, you cannot short this market at all. Regardless though, you should think that volatility will be a constant companion

 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – July 4, 2016 Forecast

September Comex High Grade Copper futures finished sharply higher last week as investors reacted positively to lower interest rates and talk of another stimulus from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. There was also speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September if necessary. This move may take place if the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday comes out weaker than expected. The return of market volatility in reaction to the Brexit decision could also influence the Fed on this matter.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum may be shifting to the upside as the market continues to consolidate inside is yearlong range of 1.9660 to 2.3295. Closing over the 50% level or mid-point of this range also indicates a developing upside bias.

The main range is 2.9430 to 1.9660. Its retracement zone at 2.4545 to 2.5610 is the primary upside target.

Based on last week’s close at 2.2170, the nearest support angle comes in at 2.1780. This angle has been guiding the market higher since the bottom at 2.0180 the week-ending June 10. The next support under it is the pivot at 2.1475. This is the trigger point for a break into the next uptrending angle at 2.0980.

The daily chart indicates that taking out last week’s high at 2.2375 could trigger an acceleration to the upside since the next targets are a pair of main tops at 2.3060 and 2.3295, followed by a long-term downtrending angle at 2.3330.

The direction of the market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 2.2375. In order to sustain the developing rally, copper is going to have to get some help from lower interest rates and a weaker dollar since the supply/demand situation is still bearish.

 

Natural Gas forecast for the week of July 18, 2016, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets fell during the course of the week, and as a result we have formed the negative candle that you see on the chart now. The $2.60 level below should be the beginning of significant support leading all the way down to the $2.50 level. Any type of supportive candle in that area means that we should make another attempt to reach and perhaps even break above the $3 handle. On the other hand, if we break below the $2.50 level, I feel that we will continue to go lower as we have on the longer-term.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of July 18, 2016, Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil

 

The WTI Crude Oil market went back and forth during the course of the week, showing support at the $44 level, but the slightly positive candle shows a real lack of conviction. At this point in time, a break down below the $44 level should send this market looking for the $40 level below there. That level of course been broken to the downside is negative as well. Even though this has been a very violent rally over the last couple weeks, when you look at the longer-term perspective, it’s not that impressive. With this, I still believe that we are going to see bearish pressure given enough time, and a break down and daily close below the $44 level is in fact the signal to start selling for the longer term from what I can tell at the moment.

 

Brent

 

Brent markets also rallied a bit during the course of the week, but marginally so. Because of this, I believe it’s only a matter of time before the sellers get involved in this market, perhaps on a break down below the $45 level. If we can break down below there, the $40 level will more than likely be targeted. Keep in mind that the strengthening US dollar will continue to work against the value of Brent markets and several commodity markets in general. I have no interest in buying this market until we break above the $52 level, as it would show a significant breakout above resistance. At that point in time, the market will probably try to reach towards the $60 level. However, I do not think that it’s going to be easy to do such a thing, and as a result I believe that supply increasing will continue to weigh upon the value of this commodity as well. Ultimately, I believe that selling is going to be the easiest thing to do but we need to see a break down from current levels in order to do so at this point in time.

 

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of July 18, 2016, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index went back and forth during the course of the week, dropping down to the 96 level. However, we bounced enough to form a slightly positive candle as we try to break out above the recent resistance at the 96.75 handle. Ultimately, we break above the 97 handle, I believe that we will then go to the 98 handle, the 99 handle, and eventually the 100 level. Pullbacks at this point in time should continue to find buyers below as there is more than enough support to keep pushing this market higher.

 

Turkish Lira in Focus ahead of Upcoming Week

The Turkish Lira plunged as much as 5 per cent on Friday, its biggest fall since October 2008 in a dramatic sell-off as reports of coup attempt by Turkish military came to action. Uncertainty on Friday night sparked a ‘risk on’ sentiment in markets.

 

The Turkish Lira closed Friday’s drop-off, trading at 3.0172 against US Dollar, 5% higher than its previous closing(2.878) and 3.3095 against Euro. The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF lost 2.5 percent closing at $41.60.

 

The coup attempt failed as reports on Saturday released that Erdogan’s regime appears to demolish military force attacks.

 

Forecast for next week could imply that Turkish Lira and Turkish shares market should bounce back close to their previous levels as Erdogan’s regime succeed to get power over the coup attempt.

However, instability will continue in and out of Turkey. The international community will accept Erdoğan as an autocrat holding chaos for now , but in the long term Erdogan’s authoritarianism regime might not be acceptable by international community.

 

Therefore, Turkish economy will continue to suffer and further depreciation of TRY (Turkish Lira) is to be expected. Turkey might see its credit ratings downgraded. The current ratings are: S&P – BB+ (stable), Moody’s – Baa3 (negative), Fitch BBB- (stable).

 

The dramatic coup attempt in Turkey also pushed oil prices higher due to Turkey strategic position and political significant in Oil market. Brent crude was last up 1.86 percent, at $48.25 a barrel after settling up 0.5 percent closing at $47.61.U.S. crude was last up 0.59 percent, at $46.28 per barrel after settling up 0.6 percent, at $45.95.

 

Going forward, stability is the main key for Turkey. The Turkish economy needs capital inflows from abroad and foreign investors need confident in Turkey political stability, otherwise they might withdraw their capital.

 

Gold Traders Breathe A Sign Of Relief

Gold continued its decline to trade at 1329.25 in Asia this morning down by almost 3 bucks. Gold is still up 26 percent this year as the fallout from the Britain’s vote to exit the European Union and the expectation of Japanese and U.K. stimulus boosted the appeal of the metal as a store of value. Lower rates benefit gold because it doesn’t pay interest like competing assets such as bonds or equities. More than $4 trillion has been added to the value of global equities since June 27 as the U.S. economy shows signs of health and speculation mounts that policy makers will boost stimulus to stave off a global slowdown.

 

The U.S. economy shouldn’t sustain much damage from the Brexit vote and may warrant as many as two interest-rate increases before the end of the year, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said Wednesday. Traders are pricing in a 6 percent probability of a rate increase at this month’s policy meeting. Odds of a move in December are 35 percent.

 

Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds rose by 1.1 metric tons to 2,003.1 on Wednesday, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Silver fell 0.4 percent to $20.322 an ounce on the Comex.

 

RBC Capital Markets, meanwhile, has upgraded its gold forecast for 2017 from $1,300/oz to $1,500/oz as fundamental demand for the safe-haven asset remained “steady”. The bank advised investors to buy gold equities on any pullback in market valuations, which it would regard as temporary in the near-to-medium term.

 

RBC based its improved gold price forecast on five key drivers.

First, it said US real interest rates remained low and the next Federal Reserve Bank intervention wasn’t likely until mid-2017.

 

Second, RBC described central banking monetary policy globally as “accommodative”, with an estimated 38% of developed market sovereign bonds – worth some $10.5 trillion – currently yielding negative returns.

 

Third, real interest rates of -0.42% continued to hurt yields. RBC calculated a negative real rate of -1% should mean gold moves to $1,546/oz.

 

Fourth, there was elevated geopolitical risk in the UK-Eurozone post-Brexit vote, with elections approaching in Germany and France fanning the flames; while Chinese, Greek and Italian banks were still a worry.

 

And finally, gold ETF inflows would provide a positive catalyst, while the status quo would simply support current levels.

 

Gold prices dipped this morning on a firmer dollar and surging Asian shares and were set for the first weekly decline since May, after falling to a two-week low in the previous session.

 

Asian shares extended gains to eight-month highs, on track for a solid weekly rise, as better-than-expected economic data from China lifted risk sentiment that was already buoyant after record highs on Wall Street. The U.S. dollar extended its gains and scaled a three-week high against the yen.

 

Inflation Back into Positive Figures for the Euro Area

Euro area inflation has crept away from negative figures for the first time since January this year, as in June inflation was 0.1%, up from minus 0.1% that was recorded in May.

 

The whole of the European Union (EU) also fared better, with prices stable last month, compared to the minus 0.1% figure in May matching the euro area, the latest data is down from the corresponding month a year ago, as inflation in the euro area was 0.2%, and 0.1% for the EU.

 

The biggest influences on the hike in inflation came from restaurants and cafes by 0.11%, rents and tobacco by 0.06%, while fuels for transport at minus 0.41%, heating oil minus 0.16%, and gas minus 0.13 %, had the biggest downward impacts.

 

In June, negative annual rates were observed in thirteen member states, with the lowest annual rates in Cyprus at minus 2%, Bulgaria minus 1.9% and Croatia minus 1.2%, the highest annual rates were recorded in Belgium by 1.8%, Sweden 1.2%, and Malta 1%, in comparison with May 2016, annual inflation fell in two member states, remained stable in eight, and rose in 17.

 

The European Central Bank will find the results encouraging in their ongoing quest to boost inflation, while still below their target of 2%, they will be hoping that the inflationary measures they have introduced, including a minus 0.4% bank deposit rate, and an expansion of the quantitative easing programme of 80 billion euros per month, are working.

 

 

Euro Area International Trade in Goods Surplus at 24.6 billion

 

The euro area achieved a trade in goods excess of 24.6 billion euros for May, according to Eurostat, as exports to the rest of the world totalled 167.4 billion euros, an increase of 2% from the corresponding month last year.

 

While imports from the rest of the world stood at 142.8 billion euros, a fall of 2% compared with the May tally from last year of 146 billion euros.

 

In January to May this year, the euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world was 826.6 billion euros, which was borderline stable compared with January to May in 2015, whereas imports suffered a fall of 3% down to 721.3 billion compared with January to May 2015, as a result the euro area recorded a surplus of 105.3 billion, compared with 85.9 billion in January through to May 2015.

Pound Continues Rise Post Rate Hold

 

The pound has strengthened further against the US dollar, after yesterday’s surprise decision by the Bank of England to hold interest rates at 0.5%, as they were expected to be reduced by 25 basis points.

 

So far today GMT the GBP/USD rate peaked at just over $1.345, having jumped up to $1.34 yesterday, once the central bank’s verdict was announced, against the euro the pound has also gained ground, rising to 1.21 euros.

 

New Prime Minister Theresa May has finalised her government team, with former leadership challenger Michael Gove omitted altogether, euro sceptics Phllip Hammond and Boris Johnson were made Chancellor and Foreign Secretary respectively.

 

FC Exchange said that the next problem facing the Bank of England will be how it goes about dealing with a potential slowdown in the economy post ‘Brexit‘, and also preventing a significant increase in inflation through a weakening pound.

 

They believe Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will await more data and forecasts, before a long term plan is ironed out.

 

U.S. Dollar Index Soars on Upbeat Retail Sales Report

September U.S. Dollar Index futures rallied sharply on Friday after strong U.S. and Chinese economic data drove the Japanese Yen lower. Because of the robust economic reports, the Yen lost its appeal as a safe haven asset.

 

The news drove the USD/JPY to a three-week high, putting the Forex pair in a position to post its biggest weekly gain in 17 years. The dollar rose to 106.31 yen, its highest level since June 24, during the early Asian market hours. After the price surge, investors began squaring positions ahead of the week-end, trying the Forex pair back towards its lows.

 

The dollar also firmed following the release of a stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales report. It showed that retail sales rose 0.6 percent in June, soundly beating the 0.1 percent rise predicted by economists. It was the third straight monthly increase and lifted sales 2.7 percent from a year ago.

 

The jump in retail sales was a positive indication for consumer demand, giving investors another reason to put a Fed rate hike back on the table. After the release of the retail sales report, the Fed Funds futures contract showed investors had increased their bets for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. The chances for a December rate hike rose to 46 percent on Friday, up from about 20 percent as recently as late June.

 

U.S. stock indices opened lower on Friday and stayed inside the overnight range. Traders suspect technically overbought conditions were likely behind the weakness. Additionally, concerns about earnings may have encouraged some investors to lighten up their long positions.

 

The S&P 500 Index was about 0.2 percent lower at the mid-session, led primarily by weaker financial stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was nearly flat at 4 points lower. The NASDAQ traded down about 0.2 percent.

 

August Comex Gold futures were flat at $1331.20. Lower equity prices helped support the market, however, the sharp rise in the U.S. Dollar put a lid on the rally and drove the market back down.

 

September crude oil moved higher after data from top energy consumers in the United States and China boosted the oil demand outlook.

In other economic news, U.S. Consumer prices increased for the fourth straight month in June. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent last month, according to the Labor Department.

 

Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment declined to 89.5 from 93.5 last month. Traders were looking for a reading of 93.7.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell short of the 5.1 estimate by coming in at 0.6. The previous reading was 6.0. The Capacity Utilization Rate was 75.4%, slightly above the estimate of 75.2%. Industrial Production was up 0.6%, also above the forecast of 0.2%. Finally, Business Inventories were up 0.2%, beating the 0.1% estimate.

 

 

December Gold Monthly Technical Analysis for July 2016

December Comex Gold futures closed sharply higher in June at $1320.60, up $103.10 or +4.42%, aided by the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union. We could see a similar surge in July if the British Pound continues to sell-off, the U.S. Dollar weakens because of the possibility of a September rate cut by the Fed and if global equity markets top out or have another steep sell-off.

 

Technically, the main trend is up according to the monthly swing chart. The trend turned for the first time since March 2013 when the market broke out over $1314.00. The rally was strong enough to take out the main top at $1358.40, but fell short of the main top at $1407.00.

 

The short-term range is $1862.70 to $1052.60. Its 50% level at $1457.70 is the primary upside target this month.

 

The main range is $2048.20 to $1052.80. More economic turmoil in July could launch a rally into its retracement zone at $1550.40 to $1667.90. A downtrending angle passes through this zone at $1576.20, making it a valid upside target also.

 

On the downside, the best support is an uptrending angle from the $1052.60 main bottom, moving up at a rate of $32.00 per month. This angle at $1276.60 has guided the market higher since December 2015 so it is very important to the structure of the rally. A failure to hold $1276.60 will signal the presence of sellers and could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at $1164.60.

 

Based on the upside momentum at the end of the month, we could see an extension of the rally in July. The direction of the market will be determined by the direction of the U.S. Dollar and global equity markets. Another steep sell-off in stocks could trigger a steep rise in gold prices, however, a full recovery in the equity markets of the losses sustained following the Brexit sell-off could put a lid on any gains this month.

 

September Comex Silver Monthly Technical Analysis for July 2016

September Comex Silver finished higher in June, closing at $18.62, up $2.58 or +16.08. The rally was fueled by a combination of flight-to-safety buying after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union and growing expectations of monetary stimulus and lower interest rates.

 

Market expectations of low interest rates are likely to be supportive for silver prices in July because they could keep the U.S. Dollar under pressure. The possibility of monetary policy easing in Britain and Japan have helped sentiment. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank would probably need to pump more stimulus in Britain’s economy over the summer after the shock of the June 24 decision by voters to leave the European Union. There are also rumors that the Fed may cut interest rates in September.

 

Technically, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed when the market traded through the previous top at $18.61. The monthly chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside for the rally to continue with the July 10, 2014 main top at $21.73 a possibility.

 

On the downside, the key support angle to watch this month comes in at $18.26. The market has been straddling this angle for several months so crossing back under it will likely trigger a steep break. The next potential downside target is another angle at $16.20.

 

The direction of the market this month is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last month’s high at $18.90. A sustained move under this level will indicate the presence of buyers.

Taking out $18.90 then falling back below this level will indicate the presence of sellers. A close below $18.62 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This will indicate that a short-term top is in.

 

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $18.62 all month. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buyers are still willing to come in at these relatively high price levels or if sellers are taking control.

 

September Crude Oil Monthly Technical Analysis for July 2016

September Crude Oil futures posted a potentially bearish closing price reversal top in June indicating that the selling may be greater than the buying at current price levels. A trade through $46.53 will confirm the chart pattern. This could lead to a 2 to 3 month correction equal to 50% to 61.8% of the last rally.

 

The main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart. However, momentum has been to the upside since the January bottom at $32.85. A trade through $46.53 will confirm the closing price reversal top. A move through $52.73 will negate the reversal top and signal a resumption of the rally.

 

The main range is $91.77 to $32.85. If there is an extension of the rally then its retracement zone at $62.31 to $69.26 becomes the primary upside target.

 

The intermediate range is $65.79 to $32.85. Its retracement zone at $49.32 to $53.21 stopped the rally in June when the market reached a high at $52.73.

 

 

The new short-term range is $32.85 to $52.73. If the reversal top is confirmed and sellers come in with conviction then look for a possible break into its retracement zone at $42.79 to $40.44.

 

Based on the close at $49.01, the direction of the market in July is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the intermediate 50% level at $49.32.

 

A sustained move under $49.32 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the first target an uptrending angle at $44.85. This is followed by the short-term 50% level at $42.79, the short-term Fib level at $40.44 and an uptrending angle at $38.85.

 

A sustained move over $49.32 will indicate the presence of buyers. If buyers can build a support base over this level then look for a rally into the reversal top at $52.73. Overtaking this level will negate the chart pattern and this could trigger a follow-through move into the Fib level at $53.21.

 

A trade through $53.21 will likely lead to an extension into the steep uptrending angle at $56.85. Crossing to the strong side of this angle will put crude oil in an extremely bullish position.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at $49.32 all month. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the bulls are still in control, or if the sellers have regained control. The month should begin with an early downside bias because of the closing price reversal top.

 

NZD/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for July 2016

The NZD/USD closed at .7135 in June, up 0.0374 or +5.53%. The Forex pair posted three major swings in June. The first rally was fueled by a weaker U.S. Dollar. The New Zealand Dollar rallied against the Greenback after it became clear the U.S. Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in June or perhaps July.

 

The second move was down after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. The final rally into the close for the month was fueled by a resurgence in demand for higher risk assets due to the possibility of additional stimulus from the Bank of England and perhaps the People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Japan.

 

There are also rumors circulating that the Fed will cut rates in September. We’ll know more about this with the release of the latest U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on July 8.

 

Basically, we should see an extension of the current rally in July if global interest rates continue to plummet along with the threat of more stimulus. If Brexit becomes an issue because of the U.K.’s decision to delay invoking article 50 then we could see gains capped and the possible start of another sell-off.

 

Technically, the main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart. However, we have to say momentum is up because the Forex pair has been clawing back losses since the .6207 main bottom from August 2015. The market is also trading on the strong side of a major retracement zone at .6863 and .6398.

 

The short-term range is .7743 to .6207. The NZD/USD is currently straddling its retracement zone at .6975 to .7156. Trader reaction to this zone should tell us if the rally is likely to continue.

 

The intermediate range is .8835 to .6207. Its retracement zone at .7521 to .7831 is the primary upside target.

 

Based on June’s close at .7135, the direction of the market this month is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fib level at .7156.

 

A sustained move over .7156 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the first target last month’s high at .7289. This is followed by the intermediate 50% level at .7521.

 

A sustained move under .7156 will signal the presence of sellers. The initial targets are bunched together at .7087, .6975 and .6863. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration into an uptrending angle at .6647.

 

Watch the price action and read the order flow at .7156. Trader reaction to this price should tell us if the rally is going to continue, or if sellers are gaining control. The catalysts for the price action this month will be additional stimulus and continued fallout from Brexit.

 

EUR/JPY Monthly Technical Analysis for July 2016

Flight to safety buying of the Japanese Yen and selling of the Euro because of the Brexit vote, helped drive the EUR/JPY lower in June. The Forex pair closed at 114.577, down 8.672 or -7.04%.

We could see more volatility in July but perhaps to the upside if the Bank of Japan decides to implement another round of stimulus to help the Japanese economy and to weaken the Yen. It seems like it is just a matter of time before the BoJ and the Japanese government decide to attack the Yen in an attempt to drive down its value.

 

The main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart.

The main range is 94.107 to 149.781. Its retracement zone is 121.944 to 115.374. Maintaining a trade on the weak side of this zone will put the EUR/JPY in a bearish position over the long-term.

 

Based on June’s close at 114.577, the direction of the market this month is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at 115.374.

 

A sustained move under 115.374 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a challenge of last month’s low at 109.519. Taking out this low could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next major target angle coming in at 106.107. This is also a trigger point for an extension of the break with 100.107 another target. This angle is the last potential support angle before the 94.107 main bottom.

 

A sustained move over 115.374 will signal the presence of buyers. The first target is a long-term uptrending angle at 118.107. Overcoming this angle will put the EUR/JPY in a strong position with the next target the major 50% level at 121.944.

 

The 50% level at 121.944 is the trigger point for an acceleration into a pair of downtrending angles at 128.047 and 130.781.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 115.374 this month. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buyers or sellers are in control.

 

EUR/GBP Monthly Technical Analysis for July 2016

The Euro rallied sharply against the British Pound in June after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. Shortly before the referendum on June 24, the global markets didn’t think Britain would actually vote to leave the EU so when the shocking news was released, global stocks were hammered and the Sterling was sent sliding against the Euro. The EUR/GBP closed at .8339, up 0.0654 or +8.51%.

 

The fallout from the vote was almost immediate. Prime Minister David Cameron said he would resign and stock markets around the world plunged.

 

An attempt to stabilize the EUR/GBP the last week in June proved to be futile as the Forex pair continued to nudge higher, setting up for a possible extension of the rally in July. The second attempt to breakout to the upside is being fueled by dovish comments from Bank of England chief Mark Carney, who warned that the central bank could enact further monetary easing as soon as August.

 

Carney said the central bank would likely need to further ease monetary policy this summer, leading some to believe the BoE would cut rates this month at its next meeting. He also hinted that other stimulus measures would be considered aside from cutting rates.

 

Recently Carney ruled out negative rates which means the MPC will only have two 25 basis point cuts available, considering the rate currently stands at 0.50%. This implies that the bank may prefer to introduce unconventional measures, such as expanding the quantitative easing program.

 

Despite attempts to prop up the Sterling last week, it looks as if investors are finally coming to the realization that Brexit will happen, putting to rest speculation that political and economic maneuvering might prevent Parliament from following through on the vote. With Carney now talking about further easing in August, the Sterling is likely to continue to feel selling pressure.

 

Technically, the market is being driven by very strong upside momentum. The close near the high of the month should lead to an early follow-through rally in July. The first upside target is a downtrending angle at .8405. Taking out this angle will indicate the presence of buyers. This should create enough upside momentum to drive the market into the next resistance angle at .8610. This is the last potential resistance angle before the high at .8768 and the main top at .8815.

 

The main range is .8815 to .6935. Closing above its retracement zone at .8087 to .7875 is also a sign of strength. Both of these levels are new support along with an uptrending angle at .7895.

Most European officials want Britain to invoke Article 50 to redefine its relationship with the EU but leaders of the leave campaign refused to act. It is being predicted that the longer the U.K. waits, the worse it will be for the Sterling. This means that any further delays could continue to underpin the EUR/GBP.

 

However, it could also mean the Euro could lose ground against the British Pound once the U.K. invokes Article 50.

With uncertainty still exerting pressure on the Sterling, look for the EUR/GBP to continue to push higher in July. Don’t be surprised, however, if profit-taking takes place due to the U.K.’s decision to invoke Article 50.

 

USD/CAD Monthly Technical Analysis for July 2016

The USD/CAD posted an inside move during June, closing at 1.2923, down 0.0169 or -1.29%. The chart pattern suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. At times, the U.S. Dollar found support due to flight to safety buying caused by the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union and resistance due to periodic rallies in crude oil.

 

Stable crude oil prices the past three months has caused a sideways trade. However, the longer the market remains inside this tight range, the greater the possibility of a breakout. On the upside we’ve seen a high in April at 1.3218, in May at 1.3187 and in June at 1.3143.

 

On the downside, the key support has been a major 50% level at 1.2622 and May’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom at 1.2460.

 

Based on the close at 1.2923, the direction of the market is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep downtrending angle at 1.2769 this month. Just a steady opening in July will put the market on the bullish side of this angle. If buyers recognize this, then we could a rally into the April high at 1.3218.

 

Taking out 1.3218 will signal the presence of buyers with the next potential upside target the major Fib level at 1.3464. This is followed closely by a short-term 50% level at 1.3575.

 

A sustained move under the angle at 1.2769 will indicate the presence of sellers. This may create enough downside momentum to trigger a break into the main 50% level at 1.2622, the major uptrending angle at 1.2540 and the closing price reversal bottom at 1.2460. The latter is the trigger point for a possible acceleration to the downside. This could trigger a steep drop into the next main bottom at 1.1919 over the long-run.

 

This month, the USD/CAD is set up for a volatile breakout. The price action indicates that 1.3218 is the key price to watch on the upside. Taking out this level should give the market an upside bias.

 

Crossing under the angle at 1.2769 will give the Forex pair a downside bias.

 

We’re going to have to watch interest rates and oil prices this month because they will be the key market drivers. Lower interest rates and talk of more stimulus could hurt the U.S. Dollar. Higher oil prices will be supportive for the Canadian Dollar. The fundamentals at this time are conflicting so be prepared for a possible two-sided trade once again.

 

USD/JPY Monthly Technical Analysis for July 2016

The USD/JPY plunged in June after the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union triggered a flight to safety rally into the Japanese Yen. The Forex pair finished the month at 103.175, down 7.548 or -6.82%.

 

After the U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen fell to its lowest level since November 2013, the Yen did give up some gains on the back of a gradual recovery in risk appetite.

 

The threat of an intervention also helped weaken the Yen. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he has instructed Finance Minister Taro Aso to watch currency markets “ever more closely” and take steps if necessary, in the wake of Britain’s historic vote to leave the European Union.

 

Abe’s comments at an emergency meeting between the government and the Bank of Japan came as some analysts raised the possibility of the BOJ holding an unscheduled policy review ahead of the regular meeting later in July to offer additional stimulus.

 

 

“Risks and uncertainty remain in financial markets,” Abe said.

“We need to continue to work toward market stability,” he said, signaling Tokyo’s readiness to conduct yen-selling intervention in the market if it deems yen rises as excessive.

 

Aso told reporters, “I was instructed by the prime minister to take various, aggressive responses to ensure stability in financial and currency markets.”

 

The BOJ will be in focus this month. Traders are going to try to figure out if the BOJ will ease or not. This means more volatility especially if the financial and currency markets take another hit like they did on June 25.

 

Technically, the main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart. The trend is not likely to turn up, but we could see a shift in momentum to the upside if a closing price reversal bottom forms.

 

The main range is 75.566 to 125.847. Its retracement zone at 100.707 to 94.773 was tested last month and proved to be support on the initial test of it.

 

Based on the close at 103.175, the direction of the market in July is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term uptrending angle at 104.066.

 

A sustained move over 104.066 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create upside momentum over the near-term. The best upside target is a downtrending angle at 112.847.

 

A sustained move under 104.066 will signal the presence of sellers. This could create enough downside momentum to challenge the major 50% level at 100.707. This level is the trigger point for a steep sell-off once last month’s low at 98.887 is taken out. The next downside target under this low comes in at 94.773. Taking out this level could drive the market into the next uptrending angle at 89.816.

 

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 104.066 this month. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if buyers are coming in to support the USD/JPY or if sellers are maintain control.

 

AUD/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for July 2016

The Australian Dollar had a volatile month in June, but for the most part, traded to the upside before finishing at .7451, up 0.0220 or +3.04%. The AUD/USD moved higher early in the month on greater demand for higher risk assets. Additionally, the market found support after a weak U.S. jobs report the first week in June led to the Fed refraining from hiking interest rates.

 

The AUD/USD broke sharply after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, however, the Forex pair gained back most of the loss into the end of the month as talk of additional stimulus from several central banks encouraged investors to buy higher risk assets. The market also received a boost on speculation the Fed may actually cut interest rates in September.

 

This month’s price action should be dictated by demand for higher-yielding assets once again. If investors continue to pour money in global equity markets and commodity-linked currencies, the Australian Dollar should continue to rally. It could get a boost if Fed officials start to talk about a rate cut. We should know how they feel about that after July 8 with the release of the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report.

 

Another sharp break by the British Pound could shake up the equity markets and send investors into the so-called safer currencies. If this occurs and investors seek shelter in the U.S. Dollar then look for the Aussie to weaken.

 

Technically, the main trend is up according to the monthly swing chart. A trade through .7834 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .6826 will change the main trend to down.

 

The intermediate range is .8162 to .6826. Its retracement zone at .7494 to .7652 is the primary upside target. This zone has been straddled for four months in a row. It is actually acting like a pivot. Therefore a sustained move over its Fibonacci level at .7652 will give the Aussie an upside bias while a move under the 50% level could lead to a downside bias.

 

The short-term range is .6826 to .7834. Its retracement zone at .7330 to .7211 is the primary downside target. This zone has provided support the last two months. Holding over the 50% level at .7330 will give the market an upside bias while trading through the Fib level at .7211 will give the Aussie a downside bias.

 

If investors are confused about direction they may hold the market between the two Fib levels at .7211 and .7652. If there is a big drop-off in volatility and volume then the AUD/USD could become range bound between the two 50% levels at .7330 and .7494.

The key angles on the upside are .7584 and .7786. The first angle at .7584 could act like resistance on the initial test along with the Fib at .7652. However, overtaking .7786 will put the Aussie in a bullish position with the next target the minor top at .7834. This price is a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with .8165 the next major target.

 

The inability to overcome the downtrending angle at .7584 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break into retracement levels at .7494 and .7330. This is followed by an uptrending angle at .7306 and a minor Fib at .7211. This price is the trigger point for an acceleration into two angles at .7066 and .6946. The latter is the last potential support angle before the .6826 main bottom.

 

Based on the close at .7451, the direction of the market this month should be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .7494. This is the major pivot for the month.

 

GBP/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for July 2016

The GBP/USD finished sharply lower in June at 1.3312, down 0.1169 or -8.07%. The trigger for the weakness was the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union. Uncertainty about Brexit is expected to carry over into July so we expect to see further weakness next month.

 

The British Pound is set up for further weakness because of dovish comments from Bank of England governor Mark Carney. In late June, he warned that the central bank could enact further monetary easing as soon as August

 

Carney said the central bank would likely need to further ease monetary policy this summer, leading some to believe the BoE would cut rates this month at its next meeting. He also hinted that other stimulus measures would be considered aside from cutting rates.

 

Recently Carney ruled out negative rates which means the MPC will only have two 25 basis point cuts available, considering the rate currently stands at 0.50%. This implies that the bank may prefer to introduce unconventional measures, such as expanding the quantitative easing program.

 

Most European officials want Britain to invoke Article 50 to redefine its relationship with the EU but leaders of the leave campaign refused to act last month. It is being predicted that the longer the U.K. waits, the worse it will be for the Sterling.

 

Despite attempts to prop up the Sterling late last month, it looks as if investors are finally coming to the realization that Brexit will happen, putting to rest speculation that political and economic maneuvering might prevent Parliament from following through on the vote. With Carney now talking about further easing in August, the Sterling is likely to continue to feel selling pressure. However, we could see a volatile two-sided trade if Article 50 is invoked.

 

Looking at the monthly chart from 1985 to present, one can see that the GBP/USD has had a history of sharp sell-offs, making the current move seem relatively mild. The 31-year range is 1.0520 to 2.1160. Its retracement zone is 1.5318 to 1.4186. Essentially, last month’s steep sell-off occurred when the market took out the Fibonacci level at 1.4186 and a long-term uptrending angle which comes in at 1.4296 this month. These two prices should be considered resistance.

 

Given the current downside momentum, we could see a continuation of the selling with 1.2764 the next target. This price is 15% below last month’s high and represents a target identified by some analysts. If you recall, prior to the referendum, some analysts were predicting a 10% to 15% decline if the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. We already saw the 10% break so the next key target is the 15% level. This is followed closely by another uptrending angle at 1.2414.

 

If economic reports start to show the U.K. economy is weakening because of Brexit and the central bank cuts rates more than 25 basis points then we could see the selling extend beyond the 1.2414 angle. If there is enough downside momentum, we could see a break into the next uptrending angle at 1.1467. This is the last potential support angle before the 1.0520 main bottom.

 

The downside momentum at the end of the month suggests the selling should continue into July with 1.2764 the next major target. We may see a technical bounce on the first test of this level. If there is a short-covering rally and investors are able to overcome the 1985 bottom at 1.3501, we could see a further extension of the move because this will trap bearish investors near the low and they may be forced to cover their short positions aggressively.

 

 

EUR/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for July 2016

The EUR/USD finished lower in June at 1.1104, down 0.0027 or -0.24%. The weakness was fueled by the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union. Initially, the Euro broke sharply as investors fled higher risk assets for so-called safer currencies like the U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen. However, the Euro began to stabilize and actually rally on speculation the Brexit may force the U.S. Federal Reserve to actually cut rates perhaps in September.

 

While a Fed rate hike in July isn’t officially off the table, the U.K. vote to leave the European Union has created enough economic upheaval in the global financial markets to safely say the Fed will not be raising rates in July. Another weak U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on July 8 will also likely seal the deal. Basically, any dovish comments from Fed officials in July will likely help the Euro. Another round of selling pressure against the Sterling or a steep sell-off in the global equity markets will likely underpin the U.S. Dollar.

 

Technically, the main trend is down. The EUR/USD chart shows that a secondary lower top may be forming at 1.1616. We’ll know the strength and importance of this top if the main bottom at 1.0539 is taken out. This move will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

 

The main range, believe it or not was formed in 2015 at 1.0462 to 1.1712. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at 1.1087. Since the main range was formed in August 2015, the market has straddled this pivot price four times. We’ve seen months when the EUR/USD trading below and months when it traded above it.

 

We want to say that a sustained move over 1.1087 will signal the presence of buyers, however, don’t expect an acceleration to the upside until the tops at 1.1616 and 1.1712 are taken out. A sustained move under 1.1087 will give the market a downside bias, however, we aren’t likely to see a sharp break until the two bottoms at 1.0539 and 1.0462 are taken out with conviction.

 

If a rally begins to gain traction over 1.1087 then the next rally is likely to be labored because of potential resistance angles at 1.1296 and 1.1456. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the 1.1616 main top.

 

If there is a sustained move under 1.1087 then the index will have a clear shot at the next uptrending angle at 1.0819. This is followed by 1.0679. This is the last potential support angle before 1.0539 and 1.0462.

 

The focus in July should be on trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1087. Trader reaction to this level will determine the direction of the Euro this month.

 

 

Gold forecast for the week of June 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

Gold went back and forth during the course of the week, showing quite a bit of volatility before finally settling on a slightly positive candle due to concerns over Brexit results. This have a lot to do with the United Kingdom decision to leave the European Union, as people become very concerned about future economic developments. With this being the case, gold should continue to be volatile, and continues to get a bit of demand as a potential safety commodity.

Gold price rose over 100$ on Friday’s session at to 1358$ after the uncertainty that covered the market. Gold is a safe commodity and would be on demand side until current situation in EU would change.

 

Silver forecast for the week of June 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

Silver markets had a positive week, beginning back quite a bit again. Once we get above the $18 level. While this isn’t quite a shooting star, it does suggest that there is a lot of resistance above. We need to clear the top of the range for the week in order to start buying. A break down below $17 should send this market looking for the $16 level next. At this point in time, precious metals do seem to be getting a bit overall in what is almost certainly going to be a low interest rate environment for the foreseeable future.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of June 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil

 

WTI Crude Oil initially rallied during the course of the week but ended up turning right back around to form a bit of a shooting star. It appears that the $50 level is offering quite a bit of resistance level, and the fact that we formed yet another negative looking candle supports the idea that perhaps price will continue decline. A break down below the $44 level should send WTI Crude Oil down to the $40 level. If we can break down below there,next target would be $36 level. Rallies at this point in time will be ignored until we can break above the $52 level which would be a very bullish sign and should send this market into higher prices and perhaps even reaching towards the $60 level.

 

Brent

 

Brent markets made the same candle as WTI Crude Oil, and it looks as if we are going to try to grind down to the $44 level. A break down below this price will send the commodity to the $40 level, and next target would be $36 level. If we can break above the top of the shooting star from a couple of weeks ago, this could send Brent Oil towards the $60 level yet again. This is a market that has been rallying as of late, but quite frankly this bounce isn’t much as we look at the long-term charts and recognize that even though it has been very strong, the reality is that it is barely a blip on the longer-term downtrend. With this, the market could very well start to drift lower.

 

Looking at the market, it appears that the black gold is in a constant situation of volatility, but at the end of the day it’s likely that we will continue to see negative pressure due to the fact that now people are going to be worried about demand with the United Kingdom leaving the European Union, and the ripple of affects that have been felt around the various financial markets.

 

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of June 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

The US candle Index rose during the course of the week, slamming into the 97 level. We did see a significant amount of resistance above there, and as a result we ended up forming a positive weekly candle that showed quite a bit of volatility. Ultimately, the fact that the United Kingdom exited from the European Union now could drive up demand for the US dollar. Because of this, it’s likely that short-term volatility will continue to be very high, and perhaps offer buying opportunities on shorter-term charts.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of June 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair initially rose during the course of the week but found enough resistance above to turn things back around and fall the way back down to the 0.70 level. This of course was due to the volatility in the markets after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. However, we did bounce hard and ended up forming a relatively positive looking candle considering what’s gone on. If we can break above the top of the range for the week, the longer-term buyers should return.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of June 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned right back around and fell apart, especially as it was announced that the UK had decided to leave the European Union. That of course is a very negative sign for the Euro in general and risk assets. This pair is very sensitive to risk appetite in general, so having said that it’s not surprising that this market fell. Rallies will end up being selling opportunities going forward until we can get above the 121 handle.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair initially rallied during the course of the week but struggled at the 0.80 level then turn right back around to form a massive shooting star. Ultimately, we have to look at the hammer from the previous week, so it shows that we are well likely to go back and forth and chop around. With that being the case, I have no interest whatsoever in trading this market from the longer-term perspective right now, and as a result will look to the short-term charts in order to take advantage of opportunities.

 

USD/CAD forecast for the week of June 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair fell initially during the course the week but turned right back around to form a positive candle. However, we could not break above the 1.30 level and hold it, so at this point in time it’s not until we break above that level that I would be willing to buy this market. Ultimately, if we can break down below the range for the previous week, we could then drop down and test the lows again at the 1.24 level. One thing we can count on is quite a bit of volatility though.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of June 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found the resistance above the 105 level to be far too strong to continue going higher. On top of that, you have to keep in mind that this pair is very sensitive to risk appetite, and as the United Kingdom has now voted to leave the European Union, there’s quite a bit of “risk off” trading going on right now. Keep in mind that this pair does tend to go lower when there is a lot of concern out there, as the Japanese yen is considered to be one of the “safest” currencies in the world.

There has been speculation that perhaps the Bank of Japan has gotten involved in the currency markets during the day on Friday, causing this market to bounce significantly. The Swiss National Bank has intervened in the currency markets, so this tends to give a bit more credence to that type of speculation. If we can break above the top of the candle for the week reflecting 106.84, that would be bullish signal, but at this point in time it’s likely going to be a situation where short-term traders will move this market more often than long-term traders.

If we break down below the bottom of the candle for the week, that would continue bearish sentiment, and could very well tempt the Bank of Japan to get involved if it hasn’t happened already. According to developments last week it’s easier to sell the Yen. There will be a lot of volatility over the next several weeks, as we try to figure out what’s the future brings with the breakup of the United Kingdom from the European Union. Ultimately, headlines will continue to move the markets quite drastically, and as a result it’s likely that markets will be hard to navigate for any length of time.However, if we do break out in one direction or the other as far as the range from this week is concerned, that could be a significant move.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of June 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, as we had quite a bit of volatility in general. After the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, it was essentially a “risk off” type of situation. With that being the case, the market ended up forming a slightly positive candle. At this point, looks like we will probably try to grind higher but it will be easier to trade off of shorter-term charts than longer-term ones. With this, long-term trades will probably be almost impossible.

 

GBP/USD forecast for the week of June 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

GBP/USD pair reached 1.49 during last week due to expectations of United Kingdom staying in EU and then fell sharply 6% to 1.368. This was exacerbated by the fact that Britain has voted to leave the European Union, and that creates risk on for financial markets and in particular United Kingdom which comes to result in the value of the British pound. With this, it’s only a matter of time before the market sells off yet again, but you will probably have to look to short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion, and not long-term charts such as the weekly chart.

Some analysts are targeting GBP/USD next level at 1.15-1.20. It would be valuable to follow fundamental news during this week to enhance trading observation.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 27, 2016, Technical Analysis

EUR/USD pair fell during the course of the week, slicing through the 1.10 level at one point during Friday’s trading as the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union. This of course isn’t positive for the Euro, and with that being the case it’s likely that we will continue to see some bearish pressure over the pair. However, there’s a lot of choppiness in the meantime, so short-term charts will probably be valuable in order to get involved in this market. Short-term exhaustive candles should be selling opportunities.

Current developments stands for 1.10 as a pivot point. Next target would be 1.091(lowest price on Friday’s session) and 1.0823. As resistance levels 1.1311 and 1.1426.

 

Gold forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

Gold markets initially rose drastically during the course of the week, slicing through the $1300 level. However, the candle that form for the week was a shooting star, and that of course is a negative sign. With this being the case, it’s likely the gold could pull back a little bit from here and try to build up momentum to continue to go higher. A break above the top of the shooting star would also be a buying opportunity as well, as there is a lot of concern about currencies right now.

 

Silver forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

Silver markets initially rallied during the course of the week, but turned right back around just below the $18 level. By doing so, we ended up forming a shooting star which of course is a very negative sign. That being the case, if we break down below the bottom of the shooting star, we could drop all the way down to the $16 level. That area should be supportive though, so somewhere between here and there I would anticipate the buyers will step back into the market and push this commodity higher. If we break above the $18 level, that would also be reason enough to start going long.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market fell during the course of the week, but turned back around and form something akin to a hammer. However, this market formed a shooting star during the previous week, which of course is bearish. With that being the case, market should continue to show quite a bit of volatility at this point. I believe that the $50 level will continue to have quite a bit of psychological significance in this marketplace. If we can break above the top of the shooting star though, that should send the market towards the $60 level. On the other hand, we can break down below the bottom of the candle during the week but just finished, that would be a selling opportunity at that point in time. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to see quite a bit of pressure in both directions.

 

Brent

Brent markets fell initially during the course of the week but did bounce a little bit towards the end of the week. The week before of course formed a shooting star, which is a very negative sign. If we can break down below the bottom of the weekly candle from this past week, this market should continue to go much lower, perhaps reaching down towards the $44 level. Alternately though, we can break above the top the shooting star from the previous week, I believe that the market could break out to the upside and then eventually reach towards the $60 level, if not the $68 level above.

Ultimately, this is a market that should have quite a bit of volatility and as a result I believe that we need to make a clear move in one direction or the other in order to place a longer-term trade. If we can break above the top of the shooting star from the previous week, that should send the market higher but keep in mind that there is going to be a lot of volatility. On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the candle from this week, the market should fall at that point. Either way, you can expect a lot of of back and forth.

 

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index initially tried to rally during the course of the week but found the area above the 95 handle to be far too resistive to continue going higher. With that being the case, we ended up forming a shooting star that of course is a negative sign. It looks as if the sellers are trying to break this contract down. However, this is probably going to be a very volatile contract on the short-term charts. With that being the case, it’s probably best traded off of shorter-term charts with a downward bias.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair fell significantly during the course of the week, breaking down well below the 120 region. With this, it’s likely that we will continue to go lower after enough time, but I think we need to look to the shorter-term charts in order to place those trades. As we have broken down almost all the way down to the 115 level, I feel that we have cleared a lot of the support now, and very well would see an easier ride lower once we get exhaustion on shorter-term charts.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair initially rallied during the course of the week but struggled at the 0.80 level then turn right back around to form a massive shooting star. Ultimately, we have to look at the hammer from the previous week, so it shows that we are well likely to go back and forth and chop around. With that being the case, I have no interest whatsoever in trading this market from the longer-term perspective right now, and as a result will look to the short-term charts in order to take advantage of opportunities.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support below the 0.70 level to turn things back around and form a hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign, but we need to clear the top of the previous week in order to go long. I have no interest in shorting this market though, because there is so much in the way of support and impulsivity over the last couple of weeks which of course signifies that the market is leaning in one direction.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair fell significantly during the course of the week, breaking down well below the 120 region. With this, it’s likely that we will continue to go lower after enough time, but I think we need to look to the shorter-term charts in order to place those trades. As we have broken down almost all the way down to the 115 level, I feel that we have cleared a lot of the support now, and very well would see an easier ride lower once we get exhaustion on shorter-term charts.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair initially rallied during the course of the week but struggled at the 0.80 level then turn right back around to form a massive shooting star. Ultimately, we have to look at the hammer from the previous week, so it shows that we are well likely to go back and forth and chop around. With that being the case, I have no interest whatsoever in trading this market from the longer-term perspective right now, and as a result will look to the short-term charts in order to take advantage of opportunities.

 

USD/CAD forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found enough resistance above the 1.30 level to keep the market down and form a shooting star. That of course is a very negative sign, but there is a significant amount of support just below in order to keep the market somewhat afloat. With this being the case, it’s going to be very difficult to trade this market from the longer-term time frames at this point. Ultimately, short-term trades will probably be the way to go.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair fell significantly during the course of the week, breaking down below the 105 level. That being the case, the market looks like this significant breakdown could lead to much lower levels. The market will more than likely try to reach down towards the 100 level now, so at this point in time it’s likely that the sellers will continue to push this market going forward. However, I believe that it will be easier to trade off of shorter-term charts at this point in time as the Bank of Japan is most certainly paying attention.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, ending up with a hammer for the candle. However, there is a shooting star from the previous week, so this point in time I believe that this market is essentially going to grind sideways and therefore it’s going to be very difficult to trade this market with any real intention of hanging onto a trade for any real time. Ultimately, I am willing to place a longer-term trade in whatever direction we break out of this range from. In other words, we can break above the top of the shooting star from last week, then likely the market would reach towards the 0.78 handle. On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the hammer, I believe the market would probably reach down towards the 0.7150 level.

Ultimately, this is a market that I believe has broken out significantly and now has tested quite a bit of support below but having said that it’s going to be choppy as there are a lot of reasons the think that the Australian dollar might struggle. Ultimately, the market will probably struggle to find direction due to the fact that we have the Federal Reserve on the USD side that probably cannot raise interest rates anytime soon, but at the same time we have the Australian central bank that has recently cut rates. Gold markets have been volatile, but it’s generally a positive time for gold at the moment. Ultimately, you have to keep in mind that the concerns of global growth will continue to play the Australian dollar, as it is considered to be a growth currency.

Looking at the chart, you can see that the 0.74 level is a bit of a fulcrum when it comes to price and of course pressure in this particular currency pair. With that, I think that it’s going to be easier to trade this off of short-term charts until we get the aforementioned break out of this range.

 

GBP/USD forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support below the 1.41 level to turn things back around and form a hammer. At this point time, it appears that the market is ready to continue consolidating, which of course makes sense considering that we have the referendum vote coming up in a few short days, so therefore longer-term traders will probably be on the sidelines until we get an answer as to whether or not the United Kingdom is ready to leave the European Union.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 20, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week but turned right back around to form a bit of a hammer. The hammer of course is a very bullish sign and if we can break above the top of a, we could very well go to the 1.15 level again. However, I think it’s can be much easier to trade this chart from the shorter-term time frames than anything else. With that being the case, I’m not interested in taking longer-term trades at the moment in this pair.

 

 

 

Iran kicks off Crude exports to Europe

Iran has kicked off its Oil selling bid to recapture the markets they lost on account of economic sanctions. As the era of sanctions has died, Iran has signed deals with European firms to sell Oil.

Seven European companies has struck crude oil purchase deal with Iran, as per reports. Xinhua news agency quoted an Iranian official saying that the country has reached agreements for the sale of nearly 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) with European firms. The report says shipments for the companies have already begun.

As per the report, Iran’s oil exports have reached 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd), from some one million bpd during the sanctions period over the past years, and is expected to hit a total of 2.5 million bpd by the end of summer 2016.

 

Asia’s Oil imports from Saudi to remain steady in July

Saudi Arabi’s crude oil supply to Asia is likely to remain steady in July, Reuters reported today. The world’s top crude exporter’s supply to Asia will remain unchanged from June, as per the report.

Saudi is expected to deliver full contracted volumes of crude oil to at least two Asian term buyer in July, Reuters said quoting industry sources. The OPEC oil giant has supplied full contractual volumes to most Asian buyers since late 2009.

Saudi’s state oil company Saudi Aramco has no made any fresh enquiry for additional crude supply, sources said. Since the firm had offered extra supply to Asian customers last month, lack of fresh enquiries point to probability of steady supply in July.

 

India should be wary of global Oil price uptrend: ASSOCHAM

The party time on driving around on cheap fuel seems to be over, though there is no danger of hard times as yet even though the automobile fuel has witnessed about 20% increase in the recent past, an ASSOCHAM paper has said.

Sharp increase in the retail prices of automobile fuel, particularly diesel, the lifeline of the public transport, will have a cascading impact on the prices of a large number of consumer items, particularly food and beverages, further building the inflationary pressure and making the task of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) difficult in moderating the interest rates, according to the Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM).

While the crude oil prices have shot up by about 20% in the last few months, the auto fuel prices at the filling stations have increased between 12 –18 % in different cities, depending on the level of state levies, adds the ASSOCHAM paper.

It said when the transportation costs go up, typically the entire food basket along with other materials, come under the cascading effect. In the present scenario, the big danger of the rising diesel prices is on the food and food a beverage which, as a group has weight of over 50 per cent in the retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The price of petrol in Delhi has touched Rs 63.2 per litre in June 2016 from Rs 56.61 in the month of March, 2016 with an increase of 11.3%. In Kolkata, it has risen to Rs 66.44 from Rs 62.32 in March 2016 (6.6%), Mumbai to Rs 66.12 from 62.75 (5.3%) and in Chennai Rs 62.47 from Rs 56.08 (11.3%), reveals the ASSOCHAM findings.

“If the crude oil prices further go up, the government should seriously think of rolling back the duties which were imposed when the prices had touched rock bottom,” ASSOCHAM Secretary General Mr D S Rawat said while releasing the paper.

Similarly, the price of diesel in Delhi has also gone up to Rs 53.93 in June 2016 from Rs 46.43 in March, 2016 with an increase of about 16%. In Kolkata, increased to Rs 56.13 from Rs 49.57 in March 2016 (13%), Mumbai to Rs 59.21 from Rs 53.06 per litre (12%) and in Chennai to Rs 55.44 from Rs 47.13 in March 2016 (18%), adds the chamber.

The crude prices shot up from $25 per barrel to $50 per barrel in last six months on the back of pickup in demand from China, India and reduction in stock piles in US.

If the trends of rising prices continue, the profit margins could be hit since the corporate India is not in a position to pass on the rising raw material cost to the consumers even among the industrialized goods.

India currently consumes over four million barrels of oil a day and is on its way to overtake Japan to become the world’s third-largest guzzler, according to the IEA. An increase in the number of vehicles and growth in refining activities are pushing demand higher.

 

Indian Gold bonds debut on bourses at 11.5% premium

India’s sovereign gold bonds debuted in two of the major stock exchanges in the country today. The gold bonds have been listed in BSE and NSE for trading at 11.5% premium to issued price.

The first tranche of the bonds were issued at Rs 2682 today, and the first trade took place for 4 grams at Rs 2986, which is a nearly 11.5% premium, including interest. Annual interest is 2.75%.

The Narendra Modi government has so far issued three tranches of the sovereign gold bonds scheme. The primary objective of the scheme is to control the import of gold and give investors an option to earn returns from gold.

 

Uncertainty Over Brexit Could Send Gold to New Yearly High

Safe haven buying helped drive August Comex Gold to a three-week high on Friday, putting it on track for a second straight weekly rise.

The initial catalysts behind the rally were the weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on June 3 and dovish commentary from Fed Chair Janet Yellen early last week, which dimmed hopes for an imminent rise in U.S. interest rates.

Prices were also supported and driven higher by worries over Britain’s June 23 referendum which will decide whether the UK remains a member of the European Union or leaves. This factor may continue to support gold over the next two weeks.

Basically, traders are no longer worried that the Fed will raise rates on June 15. They are more concerned about the UK referendum, which is likely to help increase demand for gold. If the Fed refrains from raising rates in June and strongly hints that a July rate hike is off the table too, then that should support gold, also because the dollar would weaken.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the weekly chart, but momentum has clearly shifted to the upside. A similar move like we had last week will drive the market through $1308.00, turning the main trend to up. The next objective over this level is $1325.00.

Based on the weekly close at $1276.30, the market will have to grind through a series of downtrending Gann angles before reaching $1308.00. These come in at $1284.00, $1296.00 and $1302.00. All are untested and not expected to provide major resistance if the market is being news driven. They are basically going to be potential profit-taking levels.

On the downside, the key uptrending angles come in at $1265.50, $1257.40 and $1233.50.

The major support or pivot area is the short-term retracement zone at $1267.30 to $1254.70. Holding this zone will be the key to the rally.

This week will be all about momentum and the price action will likely be news driven by the Fed and Brexit. The Fed is likely to pass on a June rate hike, but a July rate hike is still a possibility. If the Fed statement hints that a July hike is off the table then gold should rise further.

If new Brexit polls continue to point towards a UK exit from the European Union then gold should spike higher. If the polls shift back the other way, this may give investors an excuse to book profits, but not necessarily put in a top because of the lingering uncertainty.

 

Silver forecast for the week of June 13, 2016, Technical Analysis

Silver markets broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the top of the hammer from the previous week. This market looks as if it is reaching towards the $18 level, and it would not surprise me at all to see this market reach during this week to that level. It doesn’t mean that it will be the easiest move in the world, I believe that there will be quite a bit of volatility in this market as the US dollar is all over the place right now, and ultimately the US dollar looks very soft. Over the longer term, that is good for the silver markets, and once we can break above the $18 level it will have completed the complete round-trip from the grind lower over the last year and more.

 

At this point in time, I have no interest whatsoever in selling silver, because it is so strong and of course so undervalued. It appears of the US dollar is going to be on its back foot for the longer term, especially considering that the Federal Reserve looks unlikely to raise interest rates in rapid succession as we once believed. That should give us a little bit of help in the silver market, and of course if we get some type of economic strength coming around the global markets, that could drive up demand for silver as an industrial commodity.

 

Given enough time, it’s likely that the market will reach towards the $21 level, but there will be several stops along the way, with the most notable one being the $19 level as it was so supportive during the year 2013 and 2014. Because of this the longer-term outlook for this market is to the upside, but it’s going to be more or less an investment for longer-term traders than anything else in my opinion. Buying on the dips from short-term charts might be the way to go going forward as well, and it certainly seems as there is quite a bit of momentum in this market as we are closing at the top of the range for this week.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of June 13, 2016, Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market initially rallied during the course of the week, reaching towards the $52 handle. However, we found quite a bit of resistance in that area we did up forming a shooting star. The question then remains as to whether or not we can build up momentum to the upside. At this point in time, if we can break down below the $48 level I suspect that we may have seen the highs in this market for the short-term. We could very well find the market dropping down to the $44 level, and possibly even the $40 level. When you look at the longer-term chart, we are still very much in a downtrend, even though this has been an explosive move higher. On the other hand, if we break above the top of the shooting star for the week, this would be a very bullish sign and probably have this market looking for the $60 level.

 

Brent

 

Brent markets initially tried to rally during the course of the week but found the area above the $52 level to be far too resistive. We ended up falling quite a bit from there, breaking down to the $50 level. There is a significant amount of support below, extending all the way down to at least the $44 level, and I suspect the $40 handle. Because of this, the market looks like it is trying to test significant support below, and I believe that we could very well fall from here we break down below the $48 handle.

 

On the other hand, we can break above the top of the shooting star for the week that would be a very bullish sign and could send this market looking for the $60 level, perhaps even the $68 level after that. The market is still very much in a downtrend over the longer term, and we have had a significant move over the last couple of months. With that being the case, a pullback might be necessary regardless of where we end up over the longer term.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of June 13, 2016, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar rose above the 0.7050 level during the course of the week but found enough resistance above there to keep the market somewhat in check. At this point in time, it’s not until we break above the top of the range for the week that we are willing to buy, but would be considering the possibility of a pullback as value. We would have to see in a supportive candle in that scenario though. Keep in mind, the New Zealand dollar tends to follow the overall health and attitude of commodity markets.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of June 13, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair initially rallied during the course of the week to turn right back around to form a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a very negative sign, but now looks as if the 120 level is trying to offer support. If we can break down below the bottom of the range for the week, at that point in time this market could fall apart. As far as buying is concerned we don’t really have any interest in doing so right now because it’s obvious to us that the sellers are most certainly in control.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of June 13, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair initially fell during the course of the week, but then turned right back around to form a bit of a hammer. That of course is a very bullish sign and the fact that the British pound has been beaten up recently due to the fact that they may vote the United Kingdom out of the European Union, it makes sense that we could continue to go higher. A move above the top of the hammer should send this market looking for the 0.80 level, and then possibly higher than that given enough time. If we break down below the bottom of the hammer, that would be a very negative sign.

 

USD/CAD forecast for the week of June 13, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair fell significantly during the course of the week, but did get a bit of a bounce on Friday as well markets pulled back. With this, will have to pay attention to how this market behaves, because it appears that the oil markets may soften up which could drive this pair higher. However, this is probably not going to be a market that’s going to be easy to trade off of longer-term charts, and as a result will more than likely be a short-term back and forth type of situation.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of June 13, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned back around as we ran into quite a bit of resistance. The resulting candle was a bit of a shooting star, so looks like the sellers still have plenty of control in this market. On the other hand, if we can break above the top of the shooting star, the market could very well reach towards the 110 level above as it was previous support and resistance. On the other hand, if we make a fresh, new low, we will more than likely reach towards the 105 level, and a break down below there probably has the market looking for 102.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of June 13, 2016, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the 0.74 level. However, we found enough resistance near the 0.75 level to turn the market back around and form a nice-looking shooting star. The shooting star is exactly where you would want to see it if you are a seller, and as a result I find this very suspicious. I believe that sellers will more than likely be interested in this market if we can break down below the bottom the shooting star for this past week, which would show quite a bit of weakness in that scenario.
Pay attention to the gold markets, they tend to have a pretty significant effect on the Australian dollar, and it should be noted that the gold markets went higher on Friday as the Australian dollar when lower. In other words, this situation will have to sort itself out and eventually they should move in a congruent fashion as they typically do.
The US dollar has been falling rather significantly lately due to the fact that the Federal Reserve seems less likely to have as many interest-rate hikes as once thought. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia recently cut interest rates, so that of course ways upon the Australian dollar itself. With this, if we can break down below the bottom of the shooting star for the week, I believe the market will reach down to the 0.7150 level next. Alternately, a break above the top of the shooting star would be a very bullish sign and the market would more than likely try to reach towards the 0.78 handle above. It would be a very choppy move, but it seems like that’s what we would be aiming for.
If we can break down below the 0.7150 level, that would open the gates too much lower pricing when it comes to the Australian dollar, so that would be something to pay attention to if it happens, but at this point in time it looks like a small move lower is probably the most likely scenario.

GBP/USD forecast for the week of June 13, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair initially rallied during the course of the week, but found enough resistance above the 1.45 level again to turn things around and form a shooting star. In fact, it now looks as if we are going to grind a bit lower, perhaps down to the 1.41 level which was so supportive in the past. Short-term rallies will more than likely continue to be selling opportunities as there are quite a few fears when it comes to whether or not the United Kingdom will leave the European Union soon.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 13, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned right back around to form a resistive candle. With this, looks like we could grind a little bit lower but ultimately we believe that the Euro will probably gain against the US dollar due to the fact that the Federal Reserve is very unlikely to crank up interest-rate hikes in this environment. Yes, there may be one hike, but more than that seems to be very unlikely at this point in time. However, keep your eyes on the EU vote coming out of UK, because that could cause a bit of a problem for the Euro.

 

Gold forecast for the week of May 30, 2016, Technical Analysis

Gold markets fell significantly during the course of the week, breaking down to the $1215 level. We still see quite a bit of support at the $1200 level, so at this point in time it’s very likely that we will see a bit of a bounce at that area if we reach it. However, if we can break down below that Larry a, it’s very likely that the market will continue to go lower. Ultimately, we closed at the bottom of the range, so at this point in time you have to think that there is still quite a bit of bearish pressure though.

 

Silver forecast for the week of May 30, 2016, Technical Analysis

Looking at the silver market, we fell a bit during the course of this week, but we found enough support at the $16 level to keep the market somewhat afloat. Ultimately, this is a market that looks like it’s ready to try to bounce, but it could be a bit of a grind higher. On the other hand, the $16 level been broken to the downside could drop this market down to the $15 handle. On a bounce, we could very well find yourselves going to the $18 handle.

 

 Crude Oil forecast for the week of May 30, 2016, Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil
The WTI Crude Oil market had a very volatile week, but most importantly broke higher so still it appears that we are trying to continue to the upside. The market will of course have quite a bit of psychological resistance at the $50 level, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant number. Ultimately, it looks as if we are going to break higher though, so at this point in time we are buyers of breakouts to the top of the range for the week. A break down below the bottom of the $44 handle would be a sell signal but it is not until we get that particular move that we would be willing to start selling. Because of this, it’s likely that the markets will mainly offer buying opportunities going forward, and if we do break above the $50 level, we believe that the next target will be the $54 level.
Brent
Brent market formed a fairly neutral candle during the course of the week, as the $50 level offered quite a bit of resistance. If we break above the top of the candle for the week, it’s likely that we will try to reach the $54 level. That area has been massively resistive in the past, so a break above there would be more or less an invitation to go much higher. It appears that the markets are trying to form a significant base, but it’s not until we get above the $54 level that we have broken free of massive resistance. Exhaustive candle in this area would be an excellent selling opportunity, but obviously we don’t have that quite yet. With that being the case, we are most certainly interested in the $50 region, and believe that it will dictate where this market goes over the foreseeable future. Because of this, we will be paying quite a bit of attention to this market and believe that the rest of the summer will be dictated by what happens in the next few candles on the weekly chart.

GBP/USD forecast for the week of May 30, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but had a bit of trouble at the 1.47 handle. By doing so, we pulled back and formed a shooting star, and as a result it’s likely that we will pull back slightly from here. However, there is a lot of support underneath that should continue to push this market to the upside. A break above the top of the range for the week should be reason enough to go long, but it might be easier to do off the daily chart.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of May 30, 2016, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair had a somewhat volatile week but we ended up settling on a red candle. That being the case, the market looks as if it going to try to break down a little bit from here, but quite frankly there is support just below, so ultimately it’s more or less going to be a market that we have to deal with on a short-term chart, not a longer-term chart. The negativity will more than likely continue, but we are not looking for any type of massive move at this point.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of May 30, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support below to turn things back around and form a bit of a hammer. The hammer of course is a very bullish sign, and a break above the top of that hammer is a buying opportunity as far as we can see. A break above that level should send this market looking for the 115 level, but expect quite a bit of choppiness and you do have to keep in mind that this pair is highly sensitive to risk appetite.

 

USD/CAD forecast for the week of May 30, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but found enough support below the 1.30 level to form a hammer. The hammer of course is a very bullish sign at this point in time, if we can break above that hammer I believe that the market will continue to go higher. A break above the top the hammer coinciding with the oil markets falling should be a nice signal to start going long as well. Currently, the oil markets are at the $50 level, an area that has massive implications. If we pullback from there, this market will almost have to go higher in reaction. The market had recently been negative, but over the longer term looks as if the uptrend may very well still be intact.
If we can break above here, the next target will probably be the 1.35 level, and then eventually the 1.40 level. Keep in mind though that of course the oil markets will be heavily influential, and they have been rallying quite significantly lately. With that being the case expect quite a bit of volatility, as the market will continue to be influenced by not only the oil market, but the overall strength and weakness of the US dollar going forward as well. Remember, the Federal Reserve is still under the microscope as far as interest rates announcements are concerned, and that of course will influence what the greenback does in general.
This pullback has been rather sharp and steep, so at the very least I believe that a bounce makes a lot of sense at this point in time, and could simply just be corrective. A corrective bounce still can make quite a bit of money for it, so you have to keep in mind that a corrective bounce on a falling we seen recently could have this market going to at least the 1.35 level. Quite frankly, I’m not comfortable selling as we have seen such a significant fight just below. Pay attention to oil, and perhaps even the US Dollar Index along with this chart.

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of May 30, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair fell significantly during the course of the week, and it appears that we are going to continue to fall from here, perhaps reaching down to the 0.75 level. That’s an area that was previously resistive, so would make sense that we should find support in that area. Because of this, we have to prefer shorting the market based upon short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion, simply because it gives us a little bit more room to move at this point in time. Regardless though, we have noticed whatsoever in buying this market at the moment.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of May 30, 2016, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but then turn right back around to crash below the 0.67 handle. It looks as if we are going to grind lower, but the key word here is “grind” so having said that it is difficult to try to place a longer-term trade. It looks as if there is significant downward pressure in this market overall, but at this point in time it’s almost impossible to trade this market from a longer-term perspective as there is so much noise below.

 

PRECIOUS-Gold hits 7-week low as Fed rate hike prospects boost dollar

Gold slipped to a seven-week low on Wednesday as expectations of an early interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve pushed the dollar to a near two-month high.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold XAU= was little changed at $1,226.41 per ounce by 0033 GMT. The metal fell to $1,223 earlier in the session, the lowest since April 7.

* U.S. gold futures GCcv1 dipped 0.2 percent to $1,226.80.

* The dollar stood near a two-month peak against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after robust U.S. housing data supported the case for the Fed to raise rates in the near term. USD/

* New U.S. single-family home sales recorded their biggest gain in 24 years in April, touching a more than eight-year high as purchases increased broadly, a sign of growing confidence in the economy’s prospects. U.S. federal funds futures were flat to slightly lower on Tuesday, suggesting traders saw a higher probability that the Fed would increase short-term interest rates in the coming months. Further interest rate hikes by the U.S. central bank will be “good news” for the world because they will show its largest economy is in good health, though they could pose a challenge for emerging markets, European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said on Tuesday. Euro zone finance ministers agreed with Greece and the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday on a deal that will address Athens’ requests for debt relief, French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.44 percent to 868.66 tonnes on Tuesday, the first decline in a month. GOL/ETF

* For the top stories on metals and other news, click TOP/MTL or GOL

 

Oil prices climb as U.S. crude stocks seen shrinking

Oil futures rose on Wednesday after U.S. industry data suggested a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories last week, although a stronger U.S. dollar curbed gains.

Oil prices were also supported by an overnight surge in U.S. equities and strong U.S. home sales that could point to the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates as early as June.

U.S. crude futures CLc1 had climbed 56 cents to $49.18 a barrel as of 0042 GMT after ending the previous session up 54 cents.

Brent futures LCOc1 rose 50 cents to $49.11 a barrel, having closed 26 cents up previously to snap a four-day slide.

U.S. crude stocks dropped by 5.1 million barrels to 536.8 million last week, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. That was double expectations of analysts polled by Reuters. API/S stocks climbed by 3.6 million barrels, while inventories of distillate fuels, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.9 million barrels, the API data showed.

Investors are awaiting confirmation of the big draw when the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issues official inventory figures on Wednesday.

“U.S. government data are expected to show that oil inventories have retreated from an eight-decade high, putting further upward pressure on prices,” ANZ said in a note.

That came as some crude producers restarted operations on Tuesday in Canada’s energy heartland, where wildfires have knocked out up to around 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of shale production. all of the oil from the tar sands production is shipped to the United States, said New York-based energy consultant Poten.

Oil prices were buoyed by a rise in U.S. stocks, with the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI , the S&P 500 .SPX and the Nasdaq composite .IXIC all closing up.

Oil prices shrugged off the impact from a strong U.S. dollar which hovered close to a 10-week high against the euro in Asian trade on Wednesday, while the dollar index .DXY was also up against a basket of major currencies.

A strong dollar typically makes greenback-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Iraq is pumping about 4.5 million bpd now and is aiming to boost that to 5.5 million to 6 million bpd by 2020, Falah Alamri, head of Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO) said at an Iraq oil conference on Tuesday.

 

 

 

EUR/USD Forecast May 25, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Tuesday, but fell significantly and broke down below the 1.12 level. This signifies that the EUR/USD pair will more than likely try to reach down to the 1.10 level after that. The rallies that appear from time to time in this market should continue to be selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion. At this point in time, the market seems to be very negative, so therefore continuation or rather a break down below the bottom of the candle for the session on Tuesday should be a nice selling opportunity.

 

GBP/USD Forecast May 25, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair broke higher during the day on Tuesday as the 1.45 level has now offered quite a bit of support. In fact, we went much higher and we believe that the market will probably try to grind its way towards the 1.48 level above. Short-term pullbacks could be buying opportunities on signs of strength, and at this point in time we have no interest in shorting this market. The British pound very well could go to the 1.50 level over the longer term, but we need to build up enough momentum to do so.

 

AUD/USD Forecast May 25, 2016, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair fell initially during the course of the day on Tuesday, but found enough support to turn things back around and form a hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign, so we can break above the top of it it’s likely that we will continue to go higher. However, I see a massive amount of resistance near the 0.73 level, and of course the 200 day exponential moving average. Quite frankly, any rally should be a selling opportunity, just as a break down below the bottom of the hammer would be.

 

USD/CAD Forecast May 25, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair went back and forth during the course of the day on Tuesday, as we continue to see quite a bit of volatility. We have an interest rate decision coming out of the Bank of Canada today, so that will of course have a massive effect on the CAD. At this point, as long as we can stay above the 1.30 level, I am a buyer of this pair on supportive candles. On entering, if we break above the 1.32 level, we would be buyers at that point in time as well.

 

PRECIOUS-Gold hits 7-week low as Fed rate hike prospects boost dollar

Gold slipped to a seven-week low on Wednesday as expectations of an early interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve pushed the dollar to a near two-month high.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold XAU= was little changed at $1,226.41 per ounce by 0033 GMT. The metal fell to $1,223 earlier in the session, the lowest since April 7.

* U.S. gold futures GCcv1 dipped 0.2 percent to $1,226.80.

* The dollar stood near a two-month peak against a basket of currencies on Wednesday after robust U.S. housing data supported the case for the Fed to raise rates in the near term. USD/

* New U.S. single-family home sales recorded their biggest gain in 24 years in April, touching a more than eight-year high as purchases increased broadly, a sign of growing confidence in the economy’s prospects. U.S. federal funds futures were flat to slightly lower on Tuesday, suggesting traders saw a higher probability that the Fed would increase short-term interest rates in the coming months. Further interest rate hikes by the U.S. central bank will be “good news” for the world because they will show its largest economy is in good health, though they could pose a challenge for emerging markets, European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said on Tuesday. Euro zone finance ministers agreed with Greece and the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday on a deal that will address Athens’ requests for debt relief, French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.44 percent to 868.66 tonnes on Tuesday, the first decline in a month. GOL/ETF

* For the top stories on metals and other news, click TOP/MTL or GOL

 

Oil prices climb as U.S. crude stocks seen shrinking

Oil futures rose on Wednesday after U.S. industry data suggested a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories last week, although a stronger U.S. dollar curbed gains.

Oil prices were also supported by an overnight surge in U.S. equities and strong U.S. home sales that could point to the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates as early as June.

U.S. crude futures CLc1 had climbed 56 cents to $49.18 a barrel as of 0042 GMT after ending the previous session up 54 cents.

Brent futures LCOc1 rose 50 cents to $49.11 a barrel, having closed 26 cents up previously to snap a four-day slide.

U.S. crude stocks dropped by 5.1 million barrels to 536.8 million last week, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. That was double expectations of analysts polled by Reuters. API/S stocks climbed by 3.6 million barrels, while inventories of distillate fuels, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.9 million barrels, the API data showed.

Investors are awaiting confirmation of the big draw when the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issues official inventory figures on Wednesday.

“U.S. government data are expected to show that oil inventories have retreated from an eight-decade high, putting further upward pressure on prices,” ANZ said in a note.

That came as some crude producers restarted operations on Tuesday in Canada’s energy heartland, where wildfires have knocked out up to around 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of shale production. all of the oil from the tar sands production is shipped to the United States, said New York-based energy consultant Poten.

Oil prices were buoyed by a rise in U.S. stocks, with the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI , the S&P 500 .SPX and the Nasdaq composite .IXIC all closing up.

Oil prices shrugged off the impact from a strong U.S. dollar which hovered close to a 10-week high against the euro in Asian trade on Wednesday, while the dollar index .DXY was also up against a basket of major currencies.

A strong dollar typically makes greenback-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Iraq is pumping about 4.5 million bpd now and is aiming to boost that to 5.5 million to 6 million bpd by 2020, Falah Alamri, head of Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO) said at an Iraq oil conference on Tuesday.

 

 

EUR/USD Forecast May 24, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to go higher on Monday, but turned back around to form a slightly negative candle. The area just below the 1.12 level is massively supportive, and as a result it makes sense that the pair essentially just stopped in this area. The market breaking above the top of the candle for the session on Monday would be reason enough to start buying, so I think that the market moving up there would bring in a lot of buyers. On the other hand, if we break below the 1.1150 level, the market should reach towards the 1.10 handle sooner or later.

 

 

GBP/USD Forecast May 24, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the session on Monday, testing the 1.45 level in a couple of different directions. Ultimately, we will trade in the same direction that we break out of the Monday candle in. In other words, if we can break above the top of the range we are more than willing to start buying, but a move below should send this market even lower. Sell ultimately it’s just a matter of waiting to see what the market does and reacting. Until then, we are on the sidelines.

 

 

AUD/USD Forecast May 24, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair went back and forth on Monday, as we continue to struggle with the 0.73 level. Any rally at this point in time should have to deal with quite a bit of resistance, going all the way to the 0.74 level, and then the 200 day exponential moving average which is pictured on this chart. Any rally is going to be a selling opportunity given enough time in our experience, and a fairly exhaustive candle would be reason enough to start shorting. On the other hand, we could break down below the bottom of the hammer from a couple of sessions ago, which would be very negative as well.

 

USD/CAD Forecast May 24, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair did very little during the course of the day on Monday, as we continue to meander around the 1.31 handle. Quite frankly, it looks a little bit exhausted, so we could very well pullback. The 1.30 level below should continue to be supportive, so a pullback to that area and a supportive candle would be reason enough to start going long. A break above the top of the range for Monday would also be reason enough to start going long in this market. Remember that the oil markets have a massive influence on the value the Canadian dollar.

 

USD/JPY Forecast May 24, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair fell during the day on Monday, as the 110 level has proven to be a bit too resistive. Because of this, it shows that we are going to struggle to get above there. However, there is quite a bit of support below at the 190 handle, so a bounce would necessarily be very surprising either. If we can break down below the 108.50 level, we would more than likely reach down to the 107 level. If we can break above the top of the shooting star from Friday, that would be a very bullish sign as well and could have us buying.

 

 

Gold may trade lower this week on recovery in equity markets

Durable Goods Order, Unemployment Claims and Natural Gas Storage are due on Thursday and we end the week with the preliminary GDP report from the US on Friday.
Precious Metals halted the rally last week consolidating in the range of $1240.0-$1200.0 as US and world markets recovered from their lows. Base Metals continued to move higher after the Chinese markets returned from their week long holiday and supported by stronger growth reports from China.
Energy markets were supported by news of a production freeze between OPEC and non OPEC countries to which the market clearly overreacted as the fundamental situation is unlikely to improve after the agreement between the producing nations.
Gold is likely to trade lower this week on recovering US and world equity markets. Stronger data from the US this week should also push prices lower. Technically, we are a major juncture where a breakout above $1240.0 (Rs.29600.0) would change medium-long term outlook on the yellow metal to positive and call for $1300.0 (Rs.30800.0) and possibly higher levels in the next quarter.
On the downside, a breakdown and close below $1200.0 (Rs.28750.0) should seal Gold’s fate and push it lower to $1150.0-$1140.0 (Rs.27700.0-Rs.27500.0) in the next few weeks. We are negative on Gold in the short term. Silver is also trading with a negative bias and we expect prices to test support at $14.55 (Rs.35500.0) this week. Another key factor affecting precious metals this week is the USDINR which is likely to have formed a top and should start strengthening which will have a negative impact on prices.
Base Metals have also been on a recovery mode since the Chinese market reopened last week. While the supply-demand situation has certainly not improved on paper, recovering manufacturing and industrial activity has been supporting prices previously. Fundamentally, the supply gut seems to be worsening with Lead reporting a 20% increase in stocks over the past week.
Technically, $2.137 (Rs.323.0) is expected to act a strong resistance for prices this week above which the short term outlook turns positive. Failure to break the resistance should see prices return to $2.0 (Rs.310.0-Rs.303.0) this week. Our view is neutral on base metals this week.
Crude Oil has also recovered last week due to the rumors of a ‘production freeze’ between OPEC and non OPEC countries. While the so called production freeze does nothing to improve the current situation of oversupply, the market seems to have over reacted to the entire event and should return to normal over the week.
On the upside, $33.62 (Rs.2325.0) is likely to act as a strong resistance for prices this week. A breakout above the resistance should see prices move higher to $35.0-$38.0 (Rs.2400.0-Rs.2500.0) going ahead whereas failure to break above the resistance should see prices fall back to sub $30.0 (Rs.2050.0) this week. Our view is negative on prices.
We have a very data heavy week ahead with Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales on Tuesday followed by Flash PMI, New Home Sales and Crude Oil inventories on Wednesday. Durable Goods Order, Unemployment Claims and Natural Gas Storage are due on Thursday and we end the week with the preliminary GDP report from the US on Friday.

Production hurdles may hurt Iran’s return to Oil market: Moody’s

Iran will try to increase exports to China, but regional rivalries could hinder this effort, with Saudi Arabia currently China’s largest crude supplier.
Iran’s return to the global oil market will add supply to an oversaturated market, but the country faces challenges in ramping up its production, says Moody’s Investors Service.
While Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed February 16 to freeze their oil output in an attempt to stabilize prices, that deal doesn’t yet include Iran. Moody’s forecasts that Iran will add more than 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the global oil market in 2016, putting more pressure on prices.
However, Iran still faces significant hurdles to boosting its oil production meaningfully beyond those levels, according to the report “Iran’s Ability to Boost Oil Production Faces Technical and Political Hurdles.”
To raise production Iran needs to regain its customer base, attract investment to upgrade its oil fields and successfully navigating a range of political risks.
“Iran will try to increase exports to China, but regional rivalries could hinder this effort, with Saudi Arabia currently China’s largest crude supplier,” said Waheed Sheikh, a Moody’s Associate Analyst. “China will likely maintain its crude import policies rather than risk damaging ties with either country.”
Another hurdle for Iran is its ageing oil infrastructure, which industry experts say requires $150 billion-$200 billion in capital investment to modernize. “Many integrated oil companies are simply unable to invest right now because low oil prices have weakened their earnings and pushed their cash flow deeper in the red,” said Sheikh. “Integrated oil companies will need to cut capital spending through at least 2016.”
In addition, oil companies in the US are prohibited from investing in Iran as the US maintains primary sanctions on the country related to terrorism and ballistic missile development.
Iran’s failure to comply with these sanctions or with the P5+1 nuclear agreement, signed by China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and the US, represents a political risk, as do parliamentary elections set to take place in Iran this month. These elections will decide whether hardline conservatives or reformists come to power, which could influence whether Iran pursues rapprochement with the US.

The Pound Tumbles As UK Referendum Scheduled Effecting Global Markets

The Great British pound fell over 100 points as markets opened on Monday morning after David Cameron called a referendum on June 23rd to determine if the UK would remain in the Eurozone. After weeks of negotiations and several intensive days at the EU Summit last week, Mr. Cameron was able to return to the UK with a deal for “special status” for the UK providing resolutions to the biggest problems between the two partners.

As Mr. Cameron announced the agreement some of his major party members and longtime supporters jumped off the band wagon and called for the UK to exit the European Union.

 

Mr. Cameron announced the deal late on Friday and called for the referendum on Saturday morning. As soon as markets opened this morning the response has been plain and direct. Brexit seems to be more of a reality than a just a dream. The GBP is trading at 1.4284 down 121 points at this writing. The euro is down 20 points at 1.1111.

The breakup of the two trade partners will cause financial problems and stress for both. The Eurozone leaders as well as Mr. Cameron do not want to see the Brit’s exit the Union, but it might be a little too late as voters have made a major shift in the past months as Brexit is now leading in the polls. Immigration and terrorism have scared the English people down to their skivvies and they want to control their borders.

 

In the Asian currency markets, the kiwi gained to an eight-month high against the British pound as divisions in the UK’s ruling Conservative Party raised uncertainty about whether the country will remain in the European Union.

The kiwi touched 46.64 British pence, and was trading at 46.57 pence. The local currency edged up to 0.6634 against the US dollar. The pound slumped after London Mayor Boris Johnson said he was opposed to UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s bid to stay in the EU. However, Mr Johnson, a high profile, charismatic politician, later said he would vote to leave the Union. The chasm highlighted division in the UK’s Conservative Party and uncertainty around the outcome of the vote.

 

“While Cameron will be campaigning for the UK to stay in the EU, a quarter of his Cabinet will be voting the opposite and polls are evenly divided,” BNZ’s Jason Wong said.

This morning the Aussie was trading at 0.7150. The US dollar initially spiked to a nine-day high on Friday night in response to encouraging inflation data, but quickly reversed to a four-day low, supporting the Aussie. The Aussie also gained ground against British sterling following news that London’s Mayor will back the campaign for a British exit from the European Union.

Elsewhere the Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar and the euro as safe haven trades eased a bit while traders worry about the condition of the Japanese economy after the Bank of Japan moved to negative interest rates. The USDJPY is trading at 112.94 and the EURJPY is at 125.49. Japan has joined central banks in the euro area, Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden in introducing a negative rate policy, which is intended to spur bank lending by penalizing them for holding reserves at the central bank.

 

Speaking in parliament this morning, BOJ Governor Kuroda said that while there have been various reactions to the negative rates policy, he expects it will be positive for the economy and lead to an increase in lending.

Since the BOJ’s Jan. 29 move, the benchmark Topix index has plunged more than 7 percent and the yen has strengthened 5.5 percent against the dollar. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Saturday defended the negative-rate policy, saying it was not the cause of the current market turmoil. He blamed the Chinese economy, oil prices and the Federal Reserve’s rate hike and added that the rates individuals earn on deposits wouldn’t turn negative.

 

Gold forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

Gold markets fell significantly during the course of the week, but found enough support just below the $1200 level to bounce and form a hammer. This is a market that is currently sitting on top of a very significant support level, and the fact that we did up forming a hammer suggests to us that we are going to continue going higher. The breakout has been extraordinarily strong, but the fact that we couldn’t even print a solid red candle at this point in time tells us that the uptrend has quite a bit of momentum underneath it. With this, we believe gold markets are in a longer-term uptrend now, and it is essentially a “buy-and-hold” type of market. A lot of money is going to be made by going long hold. In fact, there isn’t even a scenario at this point in time where we feel comfortable shorting this market, as we obviously have made a major move over the last month or so.

 

The $1300 level above of course is the next obvious target, but after that we should go to the $1360 level, and much higher than that. When you look at historical charts, somewhere around the 1000 there was a lot of activity several years ago, so it makes quite a bit of sense that this area that was once massively resistive has now turned out to be massively supportive. Gold has been absolutely slaughtered over the last couple of years and the unwinding of short positions will probably take quite a bit of time to do. This could provide a lot of fuel in the market, and every time this particular commodity falls, you have to start thinking that possibly it’s a value play and is offering cheap asset to start buying.

At this point in time, we don’t even have a target to the upside. This could last quite a while, and because of this we will simply reevaluate the market every week, but at this juncture selling is all but an impossibility, especially on the longer-term charts.

 

Silver forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

Silver markets fell during the course of the week, testing the $15 level below. This is an area that offers a lot of support, and as a result we ended up bouncing enough to form a bit of a hammer. This means that the market should continue to go higher, and if we can break above the $16 level we should go much higher. We have no interest in selling, the market has made a significant move recently and as a result it is a market that should continue to find buyers.

 

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index bounced a bit during the course the week, using 96 as a support level. Ultimately, we think that this market is going to continue to grind its way towards the 100 level, but also recognize that there is quite a bit in the way of concern and noise in the marketplace, meaning that this is going to be very volatile to say the least. Quite frankly, we think it’s going to be easier to trade this market off of the daily charts or even lower time frames than that.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil market initially rallied during the course of the week, but struggled just below the $35 level to turn things back around and form a bit of a shooting star. That being the case, the market looks as if it is going to continue to struggle. It might be a bit difficult from a longer-term perspective, because we are in an area of consolidation. This is an area that we think it’s probably easier traded off of the short-term charts, but anytime this market rallies you have to be thinking sell house there is absolutely no strength in this market, and quite frankly there’s nothing to think that things are going to change anytime soon. With this being the case, we fully anticipate seen this market drop down to the $25 level given enough time.

 

Brent

Brent markets initially tried to rally as well, but found enough resistance of the $35 level to turn things back around and form a shooting star. Because of this, the market looks as if it is ready to continue going back and forth, but it is a somewhat choppy consolidation area that is probably best traded based upon the short-term charts or even the daily charts. It’s difficult to trade the market from all weekly chart at the moment, simply because we don’t have a lot of room to move. However, a move below the $30 level would send this market much lower going forward.

With enough time, the market should then go down to the $25 level, possibly even $20 given enough time. The market breaking to the upside would have to fight quite a bit of downward pressure, and as a result the $40 level could be an excellent place to start shorting as well if we get the right resistive candle or better yet exhaustive one. At this point in time, we don’t really have a scenario in which we are willing to start buying this commodity as there is far too much in the way of supply out there.

 

 

Natural Gas forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets fell quite a bit during the course the week, making fresh, new lows. This is a market that seems very broken, and as a result we feel that every time this market rallies, you have to start selling. The really is no end in sight, but obviously sooner or later value hunters will get involved. The reality is that we are closing at the very bottom of the candle for the week, and that normally means that we are going to see continuation going forward.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but ultimately settled on a hammer. This of course is a somewhat supportive candle, and at this point in time we could very well bounce. However, when we look at the overall totality of the market, we believe that we are in the middle of a larger consolidation area between the 0.64 level on the bottom and the 0.69 level on the top. At this point, we are not willing to put any real money to risk at this juncture, and believe that short-term traders will continue to run the New Zealand dollar.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair fell during the course of the week, touching the 125 level during the session on Friday. Ultimately, it looks like we are going to continue to go lower, and on a move below the 125 level we believe that this market will then reach towards the 122 handle. Any rally at this point time has to be looked at as suspicious, and we would be sellers on signs of exhaustion after a bounce. We have no scenario right now that we are willing to buy this market.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair initially rallied during the course of the week but turned back around as the area above the 0.78 level proved to be a bit too resistive. By doing so, we did up forming a shooting star for the second candle in a row, so with that we believe that the market is probably going to roll over in the short-term. However, there is more than enough support below at the 0.75 handle to keep this market somewhat afloat. With that, we believe that the market will eventually reach the 0.80 handle given enough time.

 

USD/CAD forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair went back and forth during the course of the, showing quite a bit of volatility. We believe that the 1.35 level below is still the support that the market will continue to pay attention to, but eventually we will more than likely break above the 1.40 level. It is at that point in time that we will start buying this market again as it should continue the uptrend towards the 1.45 handle given enough time. We have no interest whatsoever in shorting this market, at least not until we get well below the 1.35 handle.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found enough resistance of the 150 level to turn things around and form a somewhat negative candle. Because of this, we find yourselves below the 113 level and it now looks as if the market is ready to go down to the 110 handle. There is a significant amount of support in that general vicinity though, so we do not think that the market will go much lower than that anytime soon. Keep in mind that this market tends to be very sensitive to risk appetite, so as stock markets ago, so will this pair.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair fell during the beginning of the week, but found enough support below to turn things back around and form a hammer again. This happened the previous week as well, and we are now pressing up against what had previously been the uptrend line. The question now will be whether or not we can find enough momentum to the upside in order to send this market higher. What we will use as a barometer is the shooting star from 2 weeks ago, so we can break above there we are more than willing to start buying the Aussie dollar at that point in time as it would suggest a perhaps we are trying to break out to the upside. On the other hand, a break down below the bottom of the hammer would be a rather negative sign, and a move below the 0.70 level very negative as well.
Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has speculated that the Australian dollar should be closer to the 0.65 handle, so the question then becomes whether or not the chatter out of the central bank will be enough for traders to start shorting again. At this point, it does not look as if the sellers are taking over anytime soon, but we still have the massive amount of resistance above which makes us a little bit cautious. We will wait to see whether or not there is a daily close above that shooting star from a couple of weeks ago in order to start buying. Regardless, we need to see a daily close in order to feel a little bit more confident when it comes to placing money in a market that looks very volatile.
Keep in mind that gold markets are starting to strengthen, and as a result they will quite often move the Australian dollar in the same direction given enough time. At this point, it has been a little bit out of the norm as it appears that the traders in the Forex world are paying more attention to the situation in Asia rather than the gold markets, but over the longer term, correlation between gold and the Australian dollar tends to hold up.

GBP/USD forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair fell significantly during the course of the week, testing the 1.42 level for support. Ultimately, the market looks as if it will continue to go lower but we may get a slight bounce in this general vicinity. Rallies at this point in time should be selling opportunities, as the British pound continues to soften in general. We believe that this market is heading down to the 1.40 level given enough time, and as a result remain very bearish overall and believe that the market will continue to favor the short-sellers.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of February 22, 2016, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair fell quite a bit during the course of the week, testing the 1.1050 level. Ultimately, the market looks as if there could be buyers there, so we are willing to go long on a short-term chart, but at this point in time it’s difficult to make a longer-term trade as there isn’t much in the way of room in order to continue to place a longer-term trade. With that being said, we look to the shorter-term charts in order to place some type of position.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – February 21, 2016

EURUSD remains in uptrend from 1.0517, the fall from 1.1376 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Further rise could be expected after consolidation and next target would be at 1.2000 area. Support levels are at 1.1000 and 1.0700, only break below these levels could trigger another fall towards 1.0000.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – February 21, 2016

GBPUSD is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 1.4080 and 1.4668. As long as 1.4668 resistance holds, the sideways movement could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.5929 (Jun 18, 2015 high), further decline to 1.3700 area is still possible after consolidation. On the other side, a break of 1.4668 resistance will signal completion of the downtrend, then the following upward movement could bring price to 1.6500 area.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – February 21, 2016

AUDUSD stayed in a trading range between 0.6826 and 0.7439 for several months. Key resistance is at 0.7439, as long as this level holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the long term downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high), another fall towards 0.6500 could be expected after consolidation. On the upside, a break of 0.7439 resistance will indicate that the downtrend had completed at 0.6826 already, then the following upward movement could bring price to 0.9000 area.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – February 21, 2016

USDJPY remains in downtrend from 123.75, the rise from 110.97 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend. Resistance is at 115.00, as long as this level holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 105.00 area. Only break above 115.00 resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – February 21, 2016

No changed in our view, USDCAD is in consolidation of the long term uptrend from 0.9406 (Jul 26, 2011 low). Range trading between 1.3400 and 1.4689 is possible over the next several weeks. Support is at 1.3400, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and one more rise to 1.5000 area to complete the long term uptrend would likely be seen.

February Comex Gold: The Question Isn’t If It Will Break $1000 but When?
Gold futures finished lower last week and for the third consecutive year. Investors should brace for another weak year because of the strengthening U.S. Dollar. The Greenback is expected to firm this year because the Fed is on track to continue to raise interest rates. This will make the dollar a very attractive investment for foreign traders.
Gold, on the other hand, is one of the least attractive investments because it doesn’t pay a dividend nor interest. It seems to have also lost its appeal as a safe haven commodity with many investors choosing to use the Forex markets during times of crisis due to its liquidity.
Gold may find some support this year if the equity markets sell off sharply. During this particular time period, investors will use gold as a hedge or a parking spot for their stock market profits.
Technically, the main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart.
The main range is $1192.10 to $1045.40. Its retracement zone at $1118.80 to $1136.00 remains the primary upside target, but the buying from current levels is going to have to be strong enough to take out the long-term downtrending angle at $1096.10 this week before we can anticipate a surge to the upside.
The short-term range is $1045.40 to $1088.30. Its 50% level or pivot at $1066.90 is controlling the near-term direction of the market.
The low at $1045.40 is also a closing price reversal bottom. A trade through $1088.30 will confirm this chart pattern and could trigger an acceleration to the upside. However, a failure at $1045.40 will negate the chart pattern and likely fuel the start of an acceleration to the downside with the next potential target a steep downtrending angle at $1000.10. Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending angle at $1000.10 will put February Comex Gold futures in an extremely bearish position.
This week, watch the price action and read the order flow at $1066.90. Trader reaction to this level will tell us whether the buyers or sellers are in control.

Silver forecast for the week of January 4, 2016, Technical Analysis

Silver markets fell significantly during the course of the week, testing the recent lows yet again. We believe that the market will continue to be very bearish overall, so we are waiting to see whether or not the markets can make a fresh, new low lows to start selling yet again. We believe that rallies that show signs of exhaustion above would also be nice selling opportunities and the US dollar continues to work against the value of the precious metals markets in general, with of course silver being no different than any other one.

 

Nearby Crude Oil Monthly Technical Analysis for January 2016

Nearby crude oil futures prices fell 30% in 2015, one of the worst-performing commodity markets of the year. The decline also marked the second straight annual loss for oil since 1998.
The global oil supply first reached glut status in late 2014, driven by strong production from U.S. shale-oil producers. The market remained oversupplied throughout 2015 as Saudi Arabia and Russia continued to ramp up production. At the end of the year, inventories of crude oil in the U.S. stood near an 80-year high as producers continued to produce at high rates to maximize profits in a low-price environment.
Prices are expected to continue to slide in 2016 since the decline in U.S. crude production has been slower than the market has anticipated. The situation in the U.S. can turn ugly with expectations of more bankruptcies and layoffs.
With the supply and demand situation bearish and not expected to turnaround over the near-term, the only factor that can help put in a temporary bottom or at least lead to a decent short-covering rally will be an outside event. Traders should watch the news for geopolitical events this month especially since things appear to be heating up between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Any direct threat to the supply from the Middle East will be supportive for prices.
Technically, the main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart. There is no downside target at this time with many analysts throwing out prices like $30.00, $25.00 and $20.00. Without a target, traders will have to rely on chart patterns to tell them if the market is bottoming. The best indication that a short-bottom has been reached will be the weekly or monthly closing price reversal bottom chart pattern.
Based on the close at $37.04, the key angle to watch drops in at $36.58. This angle is important because it has provided guidance since the $112.58 top in June 2014. A close over this angle will indicate the presence of buyers. If the market continues to walk down this angle then we can expect crude oil to reach the $20.00 area in May. Crossing to the strong side of this angle and sustaining the move will signal that sellers are lightening up, or that buyers are coming in.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at $36.58 this month. Trader reaction to this angle will tell us if the buyers or sellers are in control.

Nearby Natural Gas Monthly Technical Analysis for January 2016

Nearby Natural Gas futures ended December by posting a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom as forecasts for colder weather the first two weeks of January boosted demand expectations. Weekly inventory data released on December 31 showed that stockpiles of natural gas shrank more than expected the week-ending December 25, helping to support the market.
Going into the new year, the natural gas market remains oversupplied. Stockpiles stand at 3.756 trillion cubic feet, 14% above the five-year average for this time of year. This is why traders should continue to treat any sizable rally as a fresh shorting opportunity.
Technically, the main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart. However, the closing price reversal bottom at $1.734 has temporarily stopped the price slide while shifting momentum slightly to the upside.
A trade through $2.386 will confirm the chart pattern. This could trigger a short-covering rally but gains are likely to be capped because of the bearish fundamentals. If there is a strong enough rally then look for a possible test of a pair of downtrending angles at $3.051 and $3.147. A test of this area will present a great shorting opportunity.
The return of average or above average temperatures will lead to more selling pressure and a possible retest of the reversal bottom at $1.734. Taking out this level will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could fuel a break into at least $1.50.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at $2.386 this month. Trader reaction to this level will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control.

U.S. Dollar Should Trend Higher, but Fed Timing Concerns Could Create Choppy Trade

March U.S. Dollar Index finished the week higher as the year ended. Although the consensus believes the dollar will remain firm in 2016 due to additional rate hikes by the Fed, the market is likely to move higher in spurts rather than straight up. This is because of uncertainty over the timing of the rate hikes.
Just about everyone is on the same page for a June rate hike, but after that date, things get a bit cloudy with some investors calling for anywhere from 1 to 3 additional increases. The dollar is likely to maintain an uptrend throughout the year, but it we could see a two-directional market at times.
Technically, the main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, the trend lost a little upside momentum in early December when the European Central Bank announced a less-than-stellar stimulus package. This tells us that the direction of the dollar in 2016 will be largely determined by the movement in the Euro.
The main range is 93.125 to 100.70. Its retracement zone is 96.91 to 96.02. Despite the recent low at 97.225, the zone remains the primary downside target and best value zone for buyers.
The short-term range is 100.70 to 97.225. Its retracement zone at 98.96 to 99.37 is the primary upside target. The market closed the year within striking distance of this zone so look for buyers to go after this week. Overcoming the zone and sustaining the move will set an early bullish tone.
Based on the close at 98.745, the direction of the market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at 98.96.
A sustained move over 98.96 will signal the presence of buyers. This move could create enough upside momentum to test the Fibonacci level at 99.37. This will be followed closely by a downtrending angle at 99.45. Look for a possible acceleration to the upside if 99.45 is taken out with 100.08 the next likely target.
The inability to overtake 98.96 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could drive the index back into a downtrending angle at 98.20.
The key angle to watch on the downside this week is at 97.88. This angle has provided guidance for 19 weeks so it must hold or the index will collapse into at least 97.225 to 96.91.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at 98.96 this week. Trader reaction to this level will set the tone of the market this week.

EUR/GBP Monthly Technical Analysis for January 2016

The EUR/GBP surged to a two-month high in December after a strong short-covering rally by the Euro and a decline to its lowest level in eight months by the British Pound. The Euro rallied after the European Central Bank announced a stimulus plan on December 3 that was not as strong as investors had expected. The British Pound fell as investors pushed a rate hike deeper into 2016 and on concerns about the referendum in which the U.K. will decide whether to remain a member of the European Union.
Based on the momentum into the end-of-the-month, the tone of the EUR/GBP is expected to remain bullish
 
EUR/GBP Monthly Chart
The main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart, however, momentum is pointing higher. December’s price action created a new secondary higher bottom at .6981. This is the first sign of real buying. It also put the market in a position to challenge the last minor top at .7492. A trade through this level will turn the minor trend to up on the monthly chart.
Based on the close at .7364, the first upside target is the minor top at .7492. This is followed by a long-term uptrending angle at .7615. Overcoming this angle could trigger a further move into the major Fibonacci level at .7783.
The first major downside target is the short-term pivot at .7213. This is followed by a long-term uptrending angle at .7075.
The direction of the EUR/GBP in January will be determined by whether the upside momentum continues. Support and resistance levels are irrelevant this month. It will be all about momentum.

USD/JPY Monthly Technical Analysis for January 2016

The USD/JPY put in a top in December two days after the Fed raised interest rates and after the Bank of Japan merely tweaked its monthly asset-purchase program, suggesting to traders that the central bank may not ease policy as much as expected.
The Bank of Japan set up a program to buy exchange-traded funds, extend the maturity of bonds it owns to around 12 years and increase purchases of risky assets. However, the latter move was minor and did not amount to a significant change to the bank’s stimulus.
The moves by the BoJ hurt the U.S. Dollar against the Japanese Yen, since traders viewed it as an indication that the central bank may be less likely to ease monetary policy further.
Additional weakness was fueled by a sell-off in the U.S. equity markets as investors sold dollars and bought Yen to pay off bank loans. Japanese investors also repatriated money, a traditional year-end move.
Technically, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is pointing lower. The main range is 100.816 to 125.847. Its retracement zone at 113.332 to 110.378 remains the primary downside target should the market go into a full-blown correction.
The short-term range is 125.847 to 116.164. Its 50% level or pivot is 121.006. This price is controlling the short-term direction of the market.
Based on the close at 120.111, the direction of the USD/JPY in January should be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending angle at 120.816.
A sustained move over 120.816 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking the pivot at 121.001 will indicate the buying is getting stronger, but then the Forex pair will run into a pair of downtrending angles at 122.347 and 124.097. The latter is the last potential resistance angle before the 125.847 main top.
A sustained move under 120.816 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a fast move into a downtrending angle at 118.847. The daily chart opens up to the downside under this angle with the next target a long-term uptrending angle at 117.123. This is followed closely by the minor bottom at 116.164.
Watch the price action and order flow at 120.816 this month. This will tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control this month.

AUD/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for January 2016

After posting its low for the year at .6908 in September 2015, the AUD/USD traded sideways-to-higher. The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points at its February meeting and then again at its May meeting, however, at its last meeting in November, it said that it would continue to assess the outlook for the economy, and determine whether the current stance of policy would most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.
At its November meeting, the Board judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged. It also recognized that the economy was likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet and noted that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.
Since the November statement was released, commodity prices led by crude oil and iron ore have continued to deteriorate and the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points on December 16.
By my estimation, falling commodity prices should drive down inflation, which likely means the RBA will cut its benchmark rate once again in early 2016. If inflation fall more than expected then the central bank is likely to cut rates in February. If inflation falls within the RBA’s range then given the stronger-than-expected jobs market data and a recent lift in business confidence, the central bank is likely to wait until May.
The AUD/USD may continue to be underpinned by the RBA’s decision to hold rates steady, however, the strong possibility of a another Fed rate hike in June is likely to keep a lid on any rallies. The general trend of the market throughout 2016 should be lower because the interest rate differential between the two countries is expected to continue to narrow.
Technically, the main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart. The new main range is .8162 to .6908. Its retracement zone at .7535 to .7683 remains the primary upside target this month.
Based on the December 31 close at .7283, the AUD/USD has room to the upside before running into resistance. The first major target is a potential resistance cluster at .7522, .7535 and .7548. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on the first test of this area.
On the downside, the nearest target angle comes in at .7228. This is followed by .7068. This is the last potential support angle before the .6908 main bottom.
We’ll be watching the inflation figures this month to determine if the RBA has to cut as early as February, or wait until May. The first major RBA meeting takes place on February 2. We’ll also be watching the equity markets since their direction will tell us whether there is new demand for higher-yielding assets, or if investors will be more risk adverse during the early part of 2016.

GBP/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for January 2016

The GBP/USD opens up the new year in a weak position. 2016 begins with the interest rate differential in favor of the U.S. Dollar with the U.S. Federal Reserve set to raise rates at least once during the year with June being the early guess, while investors believe the Bank of England will wait until late in the year or perhaps early 2017.
The Forex pair should also see some pressure due to worries about the referendum to decide whether the U.K. remains a member of, or leaves the European Union. At this time, no date has been set for the referendum so expect volatility regarding this issue most of the year.
The British Pound topped in June 2015 when it started to become clear to traders that the BoE didn’t have the all clear signal from the economy to begin hiking rates. Like many of the major economies, the U.K. is battling to keep inflation above its benchmark 2 percent level. This is the story that will concern investors throughout the new year.
Since the U.S. Fed appears to be on a path toward an interest rate hike sometime in June and the referendum up in the air, look for the GBP/USD to trade sideways to lower at least during the first half of the year. Uncertainty over the timing of additional Fed rate hikes could produce periodic counter-trend moves by the British Pound especially if the U.S. economy starts to show signs of weakness.
Technically, the main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart. Based on the close at 1.4733, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the slow-moving uptrending angle at 1.4745.
Taking out 1.4745 will put the GBP/USD in a bearish position to start the year. This move could create enough downside momentum to challenge last year’s low at 1.4565. A failure at 1.4565 will reaffirm the downtrend with an eventual move into the May 2010 bottom at 1.4229 a distinct possibility.
A sustained move over 1.4745 will indicate that buyers are coming in to support the market. This move could create enough upside momentum to challenge the next uptrending angle at 1.5285. This is followed by a downtrending angle at 1.5369. Crossing to the strong side of the downtrending angle at 1.5369 will put the GBP/USD in a bullish position.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.4745 this month. Trader reaction to this angle will tell us whether the short-sellers are still in control, or if buyers have returned.

EUR/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for January 2016

The new year begins with the interest rate differential strongly favoring the U.S. Dollar over the Euro. The Fed just raised rates on December 16 shortly after the European Central Bank announced additional stimulus on December 3. The interest rate spread is expected to widen during 2016 because the Fed is scheduled to raise rates several times with the next coming in June 2016 while the ECB may have to continue to tweak its stimulus program. Because of the higher rates, the U.S. Dollar will continue to be a more attractive investment than the Euro. This should keep the selling pressure on the EUR/USD.
As we start the new year, the spread between the U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes and 2-Year German Bonds suggests the EUR/USD should be valued at about 1.0300. If U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes move to 2.0% then the Euro may drop to parity.
Technically, the main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart. However, the December closing price reversal bottom at 1.0539 has temporarily stopped the recent four month break. A trade through 1.1059 will confirm the potentially bullish chart pattern. This could lead to further short-covering in January, but it shouldn’t lead to a change in trend. This will only occur on a breakout over 1.1712.
The main range is 1.0462 to 1.1712. This makes its 50% level at 1.1087 an important pivot price. This price is essentially controlling the short-term direction of the market.
Based on the December 31 close at 1.0854, the direction of the market early in the month will be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending angle at 1.0912.
A sustained move over 1.0912 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a test of the pivot at 1.1087. Overtaking the pivot will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next target an uptrending angle at 1.1262. This is followed by a downtrending angle at 1.1312.
A sustained move under 1.0912 will signal the presence of sellers. This is followed by uptrending angles at 1.0862 and 1.0793. The daily chart opens up to the downside under 1.0793 with the next target a slow-moving uptrending angle at 1.0662. This is the last potential support angle before the closing price reversal bottom at 1.0539 and the main bottom at 1.0462.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.0912 this month. This price will tell us whether the buyers or sellers are in control.

MCX Gold may track firm Int’l markets

Concerns that demand for non-interest-paying bullion will take a hit from the rate hike continue to cast a shadow, and will likely limit any rally in gold.
Bullion counter may remain on positive path tracking firm international markets. Weakness in dollar index can give support to the prices. Meanwhile movement of local currency rupee can give further direction in MCX.
Gold can move in range of 24800-25300 and Silver can move in range of 33300-34300 in MCX, according to SMC Global. Gold February contract has been trading 0.35 per cent to 25169 level on Monday in MCX(12.11pm)
The metal saw some safe-haven bids on Friday after global equity markets fell sharply as slumping oil prices raised concerns about slower growth, while the dollar slipped against the yen on views the Bank of Japan may not ease policy as much as expected.
Concerns that demand for non-interest-paying bullion will take a hit from the rate hike continue to cast a shadow, and will likely limit any rally in gold. Speculators built a record bearish bet in COMEX gold in the week leading up to a long awaited decision from the Fed to hike U.S. interest rates, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.
SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 2.98 percent to 648.92 tonnes on Friday, the first increase in two months.

Declining acreage, yield may lead to 11% fall in Indian Cotton output: Report

The report finds that cotton acreage has declined by 7.5% as farmers received poor returns from the previous season. Meanwhile, overall yields are likely to reduce by 3.8 per cent.
Low acreage and drastic dip in yields may hurt India’s cotton production this year, as per a report. The report by Edelweiss Agri Research pegs output at 335 lakh bales which indicates a reduction of 11 per cent.
“The cotton production is estimated at 335 lakh bales this year as against 376.6 lakh bales of last year, lower by 11%. Lower production is mainly attributed to lower acreage and drastic reduction in yields in North India due to white foly infection,” according to Edelweiss Agri Research.
The report finds that cotton acreage has declined by 7.5% as farmers received poor returns from the previous season. Meanwhile, overall yields are likely to reduce by 3.8 per cent, the report says.
Meanwhile, world cotton stocks are remaining at very high levels. International prices remain weak. Cotton demand continues to expand at a slow rate as a result of sluggish world economic growth and strong competition from synthetic fibers.

Fed hike and its impact on commodities markets

The lack of direction in precious metals despite the FED move last week could indicate a lack of consensus among traders on which way prices are headed.
FOMC raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade shifting from its lose monetary policy stance to a gradual and calculated tightening of the support as it sees the US economy recover going ahead. The initial reaction from commodities market was a muted one with only a small knee jerk reaction in the market.
The next two days saw Gold fall sharply to $1055.0/oz and then recover in the same manner back to near $1070.0 as traders decided on what the potential impact the FED move could have.
Base Metals remained largely range bound last week but did witness some volatility backed by the FED decision. Oil and Natural Gas prices continued to remain lower pressured further by supply concerns.
The lack of direction in precious metals despite the FED move last week could indicate a lack of consensus among traders on which way prices are headed. The increase in interest rates would mean that bonds and treasuries are more in favor than gold which is non yielding asset.
The fact that markets and treasuries have also somewhat reacted positively to the rate hike should come as negative news for precious metals. Given the situation, we feel the focus will once again shift to macro-economic data from the US which if picks up further should pressure bullions lower. Over the short term, increasing inflation could be positive for prices but that looks farfetched right now as crude oil prices have also been languishing near the lows.
The weekly bias on precious metals is neutral and we expect consolidation at current levels. Support is seen at $1050.0 (Rs.24750.0) and Resistance is expected to come into play at $1084.0 (Rs.25500.0). For Silver, the current range if $13.70-$14.25 (Rs.33000.0-Rs.34300.0).
Copper continues to remain in a large range since mi-November and now is on way to test resistance at $4725.0 (Rs.316.0) above which a daily close could trigger short term rallies in Copper. Failure to do so should see prices come down to sub $4600.0 levels this week. Fundamentally, the production cut from refiners and smelters could provide support for prices, we do not expect any sustainable rallies unless there is a demand pickup from China.
Crude Oil should remain under further downward pressure as prices plunged to a fresh low of $35.56 /barrel in intraday today. The next support is seen at $35.0 (Rs.2340.0) breaking which $30.0/bbl (Rs.2000) is the most likely level this week. Unless, a major supply shock occurs, we don’t know expect any significant or lasting rallies, the weekly trend is clearly negative at the time of writing this.
CFTC Commitment of Traders
Net longs on Gold futures saw a sharp decline of 5967 contracts to 13656 while that for Silver dropped 36% or 5683 contracts to 15577 – this was coupled with a 2.52% gain in OI. Crude Oil long positions saw an increase of 6% or 12637 contracts to 210511 (both longs and shorts decline by 7860 and 20497 contracts). Natural Gas saw shorts decline by 7366 contracts to 205239 while OI gained 2.08% for the week ended December 15.

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – December 20, 2015

EURUSD is now in uptrend from 1.0517, the fall from 1.1059 is likely correction of the uptrend. Further rally could be expected after correction, and next target would be at 1.2000 area. Support levels are at 1.0740 and 1.0517, only break below these levels could trigger another fall towards 1.0000.

 

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – December 20, 2015

GBPUSD’s downward movement from 1.5929 extended to as low as 1.4865. Near term resistance is at the downward trend line on daily chart, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.4700 – 1.4800 area. Key resistance is at 1.5400, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – December 20, 2015

AUDUSD stayed in the trading range between 0.6907 and 0.7439 for several months. As long as 0.7439 resistance holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the long term downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high), another fall towards 0.6500 is still possible after consolidation.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – December 20, 2015

USDJPY is in short term downtrend from 123.75. Deeper decline is still possible next week, and the target would be at 118.00 area. Resistance is at 123.75, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 130.00.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – December 20, 2015

USDCAD’s upward movement from 1.2831 extended to as high as 1.40000. Further rise could be expected after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 1.4500 area. Support is now at 1.3650, as long as this level holds, the uptrend will continue.

 

MCX Gold likely to trade positively

Weaker greenback is likely to give support to the prices.Movement of local currency rupee can give further direction in MCX.
Bullion counter may trade on positive path as Euro zone meeting today to give further direction to the prices. Meanwhile movement of local currency rupee can give further direction in MCX.
Weaker greenback is likely to give support to the prices. Gold (Feb) can move in range of 25400-25900 and Silver (Mar) can move in range of 34500-35400 in MCX, as per SMC Global forecast for Gold price. Gold February contract has been moving 0.12 per cent to 25684 level on Monday in MCX(11.50am).
Data on Friday showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 211,000 last month, and the unemployment rate held at a 7-1/2-year low of 5.0 percent. September and October data was revised to show 35,000 more jobs than previously reported.
Gold fell to multi-year lows last week on expectations of a rate hike as higher rates tend to weigh on non-interest-paying gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding it. Speculators’ short positions in gold are at a record high, according to latest U.S. government data on Friday.
Elsewhere, the richest Hindu temple in the world could soon come to the rescue of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to recycle tonnes of idle gold and cut economy-hurting imports.

How the recent rains affect Indian Turmeric farmers?

The rains in Tamil Nadu may lead to rise in price of turmeric on low output. But not all turmeric farmers are likely to benefit from this.
The recent rains in Tamil Nadu were thought to benefit Turmeric farmers. Prices may rise in next three months on low output. But, as things turned out only those with stocks in warehouses are likely to benefit from this, as per an article in my digital fc.
The southern state of Tamil Nadu has witnessed severe rains. The recently planted turmeric crops have been affected by the heavy rains. Experts say turmeric rhizome in the growing areas will be damaged by the heavy rains and the resultant water logging in the turmeric fields.
This scenario, naturally, leads to a rise in prices from which farmers can benefit. However, most of the farmers have used their turmeric stocks as seeds for the current season. Thus only those who possess ample stocks can benefit from the likely rise in prices.
India is the largest producer and consumer of the yellow spice. The country accounts for about 80 per cent of world turmeric production and 60 per cent of world exports.

Indian agri counters likely to show recovery

Spices bounced back somewhat but some recovery can be expected next week on possibilities of exports picking up.
No strong movement was noted for the Agri counters ahead of the weekend holidays. Markets however likely to recover in coming weeks on expected rise in domestic and export demand.
Chana remained stable while Guar showed some recovery on firmness in Crude oil rates. Spices bounced back somewhat but some recovery can be expected next week on possibilities of exports picking up.
Oil complex showed some dips on weakness in International markets. Oil complex is likely to remain firm on rising domestic demand supported further by firmness in International markets.

Gold forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

Gold markets initially fell during the course of the week but then turned back around to break above the $1080 level. This is a very positive looking candle, but we also recognize that there is a massive amount of resistance at the $1100 level. Because of this, we are not willing to take a longer-term approach at this market quite yet, and with that being the case we will look to shorter-term charts for trading opportunities. Although the candle is very positive looking, when you look at it in the totality of the trend, it doesn’t really mean much yet.

 

Silver forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

Silver markets initially fell during the course of the week but turned back around as buyers stepped in to let the market once we got below the $14 handle. We eventually broke well above the $14.50 level, and it now appears that silver is trying to make a serious rally from here. We believe in buying Silver at the moment, but recognize that $16 above will be very difficult to get through. We think that’s the initial target, but also recognize that you may be looking at a potential “buy-and-hold” type of situation if the US dollar can continue to fall apart. We have no interest in selling at the moment.Silver markets initially fell during the course of the week but turned back around as buyers stepped in to let the market once we got below the $14 handle. We eventually broke well above the $14.50 level, and it now appears that silver is trying to make a serious rally from here. We believe in buying Silver at the moment, but recognize that $16 above will be very difficult to get through. We think that’s the initial target, but also recognize that you may be looking at a potential “buy-and-hold” type of situation if the US dollar can continue to fall apart. We have no interest in selling at the moment.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude
The light sweet crude market initially tried to rally during the course of the week but found the area above the $42 level to be far too resistive. We ended up breaking below the $40 level at one point during the day on Friday, and it now appears that the downward pressure will continue in this market. After all, OPEC has many problems right now, not the least of which is that the members of that cartel cannot agree to cut production. This will continue to flood the market with crude oil, and as long as the supply continues to increase, the reality is that prices will have to drop. Even with the massive turnaround in the US dollar value, we can still see that oil is struggling. If the US dollar strengthens in the next couple of sessions, that should also apply downward pressure on this market.
Brent
The Brent market initially tried to rally during the course of the week as well, but found the $45 level to be far too resistive. Because of this, we ended up turning back around and forming a fairly negative candle. It appears that the $42.50 level below is supportive, but it’s only a matter of time before we break down below there. If we can get below there, the market will more than likely reach towards the $40 level next.
Rallies are selling opportunities as well, as the downward pressure simply continues yet again. Given enough time, we have no doubt that the market will continue to go lower. In fact, we don’t even have a scenario in which we are willing to buy Brent at the moment, and with that being the case we don’t even look for long positions. The longer-term trend is most obviously down, so we think that the market will continue to show the same type of selling opportunities again and again as we have seen recently. The $40 level of course is a large, round, psychologically significant number, so it’s likely that we may find a bit of support there.

Natural Gas forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets went back and forth during the course of the week, ultimately settling on a slightly negative attitude. Although the candle is neutral, we believe that this market still has plenty of downside left in it, and that rallies should be sold off as natural gas simply has far too much in the way of supply. On the other hand, we look at rallies as potential “value” in the US dollar. The ceiling in this market should be somewhere near the $2.50 level above, as we have seen quite significant bearish pressure.

 

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index initially fell during the course of the week but found a little bit of a reprieve on Friday as the 98 handle offered support. This is an area that had seen quite a bit of resistance previously, so we could see a bounce in this general vicinity. It’s going to be a bit difficult to hang onto this trade from a longer-term perspective, so at this point in time we will continue to focus on buying opportunities printed on the daily charts, if not shorter time frames.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, slicing into the 0.6750 area. This is an area that we have been looking at for some time, as it has offered quite a bit of resistance. The question is where we go from here. The market is very negative overall, but we did recently make a “higher lows”, and that means that we could be trying to change the trend. Also, the Australian dollar is starting to perk up a bit and that a lot of times can lead the Kiwi dollar higher. Regardless, we think the 0.70 level above will be massively resistive.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair used to the 130 level as a springboard for the market, and shot towards the 134 level. Ultimately, we think there is resistance just above, so it is difficult to start buying at this point. If we get a resistant candle here, it would be fairly easy to sell, but as far as buying is concerned we would need to see short-term pullbacks at the very least even consider doing so. Given enough time, we feel that the market will have to make a decision but right now this is going to be very difficult to trade from a longer-term trader’s perspective.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support at the 0.70 level to turn things around. We ended up searching quite a bit higher, but quite frankly we think that the downtrend is still very much intact, and we believe that selling pressure above should continue to weigh upon this market. We do not have the resistive candle needed in order to start selling, so having said that we are simply going to wait on the sidelines as we believe there is so much danger for a pullback.

 

USD/CAD forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but turned back around to form a bit of a hammer. This hammer was preceded by another hammer during the previous week, so it looks like we are continuing to try to build momentum to break out to the upside. The 1.35 level above continues to be massive resistance, and the psychological barrier. If we can get above that level, it becomes more of a buy-and-hold type of situation. We like buying pullbacks as well, as there is more than enough support below.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair went back and forth during the course the week, eventually forming a rather neutral looking candle. We have been stuck in a fairly tight range lately, and we didn’t break out of this week either. With this, we do believe in the uptrend now, but at this point in time don’t have a signal to start buying. We certainly wouldn’t sell though, as we believe the 120 level should essentially be the floor in this market. Eventually, will break above the 125 handle, and then go much higher.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the top of the shooting star from the previous week. This is a very bullish sign and should send this market looking towards the 0.75 level over the next couple of weeks. We are not looking for any type of explosive move to the upside, just a simple grind. The real question will be whether or not we can get above the 0.75 handle, which we think will be where the market makes a longer-term decision.

 

GBP/USD forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair initially broke down during the course of the week, driving well below the 1.50 level. This of course is a psychologically significant number, so it would attract quite a bit of attention. Having said that, we turned back around to form a bit of a hammer and it now looks as if the British pound will continue to trying to gain value. If we can break above the top of the hammer, the market will try as hard as possible to break above the 1.52 level, and more importantly the hammer from 2 weeks ago.
On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the hammer that is a very negative sign and the market should then reach towards the 1.45 handle. The US dollar had been strengthening overall due to the fact that the Federal Reserve will probably have to raise interest rates this next meeting, and perhaps even the next one after that. We got a little bit of a “knee-jerk reaction” against the US dollar as the European Central Bank did not add as much stimulus as once anticipated. This had a bit of a “knock on effect” in this market, and of course brought the value of the British pound up.
The one thing that you can count on in this market is probably going to be volatility. Given enough time, the markets will eventually make a steady decision, but in the meantime we have our levels and we are paying attention to in order to place longer-term trades. The volatility will be difficult to deal with, but given enough time it should provide us with a nice trading opportunity.
We believe that the actual “floor” in the market is closer to the 1.45 level, so we could get a rally and then a continued downward move. If we break above the top of the shooting star from 2 weeks ago though, at that point in time we think the market probably reaches towards the 1.550 level, and then the 1.58 handle.

EUR/USD forecast for the week of December 7, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week as the European Central Bank shot the market by doing much less stimulus than originally anticipated. This was an interesting move, as we slammed into the bottom of the uptrend line that had formed the previous ascending triangle. The fact that we fail there suggests that perhaps the “knee-jerk reaction” of the ECB disappointment may be running out of steam already. After all, we not only have the uptrend line, but we also have the 1.10 large, round, psychologically significant number just above there. At this point in time, this particular we might be crucial as to what happens next in the EUR/USD pair, but we also recognize that we may have to look to shorter-term.
The longer-term outlook for this particular currency pair will be interesting because it is essentially a battle between 2 central banks. After all, the European Central bank disappointment was still added stimulus, so having said that the market is starting to believe that perhaps the situation in Europe is getting better. However, the ECB is nowhere near raising interest rates while the Federal Reserve almost looks assured to. After all, the jobs number on Friday was 211,000 added last month, and that of course is a very positive sign. There were also upward revisions of previous months so it’s very likely that the Federal Reserve will not only have to raise interest rates at the next meeting, but they could possibly give us hands as to a longer-term rate hike cycle as well.
At the end of the day, it is interest-rate differential that allows for the Forex markets to trend. It most certainly is favoring the US dollar still, and at this point in time we will have to wait to see whether or not we get the right resistive candle in this area to start selling. We think it could happen, but we also recognize that if we break above the uptrend line and maybe even perhaps the 1.11 level, the market could very well sir reaching towards the 1.15 handle again.

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – December 6, 2015

Being contained by 1.0462 (Mar 13 low) support, EURUSD rebounded strongly to 1.0981, indicating that the downward movement from 1.1713 had completed. Further rally could be expected over the next several weeks, and the target would be at 1.2000 area.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – December 6, 2015

GBPUSD is in a descending wedge pattern on daily chart. Further decline would likely be seen over the next several weeks, and the target would be at 1.4700 – 1.4800 area. Near term resistance is at the upper border of wedge, and the key resistance is at 1.5400, only break above this level could bring price back to 1.6500 zone.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – December 6, 2015

AUDUSD is facing 0.7439 resistance again, a break of this level will indicate that the downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high) had completed at 0.6907 already, then the following upward movement could bring price to 0.8000 zone. However, as long as 0.7439 resistance holds, the sideways movement in a range between 0.6907 and 0.7439 could be expected to continue.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – December 6, 2015

No changed in our view, USDJPY remains in short term uptrend from 118.16, the fall from 123.75 is treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Further rise to test 125.85 resistance is possible, a break of this level will signal resumption of the long term uptrend from 75.57 (Oct 31, 2011 low), then next target would be at 135.00 area. Near term support is at 122.00, only break below this level will indicate that the short term uptrend had completed at 123,75 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back to 118.00 zone.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – December 6, 2015

USDCAD is testing 1.3456 resistance, a break of this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.1919 has resumed, then next target would be at 1.4000 area. Near term support is at 1.3200, only break below this level could trigger another fall to 1.2500 zone.

 

Mixed trend persist over Indian agri markets

Chana continued to trade firm but prospects of rains in growing states of Rajasthan and MP in coming days could help keep sentiments down in the short term.
Mixed trend was noted for the Agri commodities as Spices found some support at the lower levels with expected pick up in exports in coming weeks.
Chana continued to trade firm but prospects of rains in growing states of Rajasthan and MP in coming days could help keep sentiments down in the short term. Guar however persisted with the downward trend as Fundamentals remained weak.
Oil complex traded sideways with International markets remaining closed as Kapas, Cocud and Cotton rates firmed up in the domestic and the International markets.

Will RBI cut rates on Tuesday?

Since RBI had announced a 50 basis point cut at its last meeting , market participants are not expecting a rate cut on Tuesday’s meeting.
Reserve Bank of India Governor(RBI) Raghuram Rajan will announce the Fifth Bi-monthly policy statement for 2015-16 on Tuesday. ‘Will RBI cut rates tomorrow’ is the hot question on everyone’s mind now.
WIll RBI cut rates on Tuesday’s meeting? Since RBI had announced a 50 basis point cut at its last meeting , market participants are not expecting a cut on Tuesday’s meeting.
Aditi Nayar, an economist at ICRA, told Reuters that barring an unexpectedly feeble GDP data print on Monday, RBI is likely to hold rates unchanged in the December 1st policy review.
Arundhati Bhattacharya,chairperson of State Bank of India, says there will not be any surprises on Tuesday. “I don’t think the Reserve Bank of India would be looking at reducing interest rates as there might be a lift-off from the US Fed. Until there is clarity on the way the Fed is moving, I think they will hold rates,” she told The Hindu, in an exclusive interview.
Fast changing geo-political situation in the Middle East and the increased terror threat with consequent economic costs will surely weigh on the RBI’s policy stance which is not expected to give any more cut in the interest rates in the ensuing review, an ASSOCHAM paper has pointed out.
“Then the whole issue of Rupee stability in the backdrop of chances that US Fed may raise the interest rates, would influence the monetary policy and the industry must be prepared for the unfolding events,” said The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) in a pre-policy note.

MCX Gold likely to trade 24900-25200 levels

From now on, all the eyes would be on the decision of the Federal Reserve whether it will raise short-term interest rates at a critical meeting next month.
The Indian rupee may continue to be on the lower side against the dollar owing to appreciation in the US currency overseas. In days to come, both currency and gold prices may remain influenced by global developments, dollar movement along with major economic data releases such as upcoming monetary policy from RBI.
As of now, the weaker Rupee is supporting bullions prices on local bourses and is expected to support in near term as well.
Gold futures (Dec) on MCX platform may trade in the range of 24900-25200 levels & silver futures (Dec) may hover in the range of 33400-34000 levels with downside being capped with weaker currency, according to SMC Global. Gold December contract has been trading -0.24per cent to 25000 level on Monday(11.47am).
At the same time, Euro, which is a main component of the dollar index and trading near multi month lows against the greenback and which also having a 58percent weighting in the basket of currencies might take support near 1.05 levels. Therefore, any sharp short covering in the pair may cap the rally in dollar index.
However, from now on, all the eyes would be on the decision of the Federal Reserve whether it will raise short-term interest rates at a critical meeting next month. On the other hand, any trigger regarding ongoing geopolitical tensions could once again see investors seeking safety in bullion counter which is a supportive factor for the segment.
As of now, we have seen that in past week Russia sent an advanced missile system to Syria to protect its jets operating there and pledged its air force would keep flying missions near Turkish air space. Back at home, in the physical markets, buying interest on back of ongoing festive and marriage season may picked up as gold prices stayed near multi-month lows.

Gold forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The gold markets fell during the course of the week, dropping to fresh, new lows. This of course is a negative sign and as a result has us selling yet again. On top of that, we broke down below the bottom of the hammer from the previous week, and that of course is negative also. The strengthening US dollar will continue to work against gold in general, so with this being the case we believe that the market will probably continue down to the $1000 level, where we would expect a lot of psychology to enter the market. Given enough time, this is a market that should continue to see quite a bit of bearish pressure, and could even break down below the aforementioned $1000 handle. In the meantime though, it looks as if you could sell rallies going forward, but a lot of the “easy money” has probably already been made.
We believe that there is a massive ceiling in this market, somewhere near the $1200 level. Once we get back above there, you could consider a trend change at that point to the upside, but there is quite a bit of resistance at lower levels as well. In other words, this is a market that we have no interest in buying, especially from a longer-term perspective. There does come a time someday when we will start buying though, as we believe that we are currently doing enough destruction in the value of gold that eventually there will be a longer-term “buy-and-hold” signal presenting itself as gold would simply become too cheap.
It might be a little bit easier to trade off the shorter-term charts, but nonetheless we feel that the only direction you can deal with is the downside. The downside of course means that we get a strengthening US dollar, so pay attention to the US Dollar Index, as it is currently bouncing around the psychologically significant 100 level. If we can get above there, that will put significant pressure on gold going forward. Patience will be needed, but there is profit to be had to the downside.

Silver forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The silver market went back and forth during the course of the week, ultimately settling on a very flat looking candle. However, we have dipped below the $14 level twice now, and as a result it looks like we will eventually break down. Keep in mind that the gold market has broken out already, so at this point in time it’s only a matter of time before silver follows in our opinion. Any rally at this point in time should be a selling opportunity as well. We have no interest whatsoever in buying silver and believe that once we break down we could reach towards the $12 handle.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market had a very volatile week as we went back and forth, testing the $44 level above for resistance. We did in fact find it there, so by the time we close for the week we ended up forming a bit of a shooting star. The shooting star sitting at the very bottom of the downtrend is a very negative sign indeed, and suggests that the matter what happens, the sellers are going to be involved. The $40 level just below is massively supportive, so if we can break down below there, we feel that this market will continue to drift much lower.

The strengthening US dollar of course is doing this market no favors, as the commodity is priced in those very US dollars. It will take less US dollars to buy a barrel of oil, so that translates into lower prices obviously. We have no interest in buying, and believe that it’s only a matter time before we break apart.

Brent

The Brent market went back and forth as well, forming resistance at the $47 level. We ended up forming a shooting star that was preceded by a bit of a hammer, so the Brent market may be struggling a bit, but we think it’s only a matter time before he break to a fresh, new low. At this point in time, the market would then reach down to the $40 handle given that move. We have no interest in buying this market, and believe that the only thing you can do is sell. The $48 level above is massively resistive, so we would be surprised the market rose above there. As far as buying is concerned, quite frankly we would have to get above the $56 handle which is something that we won’t be seeing anytime soon. Keep in mind that the Brent market is very susceptible to what happens in the European Union, so it also has those headwinds that it will have to deal with in order to change the attitude.

 

Natural Gas forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but turned back around to form a shooting star at the bottom of a massively negative trend. Because of this, the market should then reach down towards the $2.00 level, which is the next major round number. We believe that rally should continue to be selling opportunities, as the demand for natural gas doesn’t support the market very well, and then of course you have to believe that the US dollar strengthening isn’t helping the market either.

 

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index had a slightly positive week as we tested the 100 level again. This is an area that will have a lot of psychological significance though, and the fact that we struggled in this area is in a big surprise. However, if we can make a fresh, new high, we believe that this market will then reach towards the 102 level. Pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities and we will treat them as such on signs of support or bounce seen. We have no interest in selling.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but fell and ended up closing just above the 0.65 handle. This is a market that simply did not have much in the way of momentum, but quite frankly we feel that eventually we will try to reach back towards the 0.6750 level. On the other hand though, if we break down below the 0.64 level, we feel the market then goes back down to the 0.60 handle. Regardless, this is going to be a market that you will want to trade from shorter-term charts, because there isn’t whole lot of room to move.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair initially broke below the 130 handle, but turned back around to form a bit of a hammer. With that, it looks as if the market is going to bounce from here and trying to build up enough momentum to finally break down. With that being the case, we do not like longer-term trades at this moment and will continue to trade the EUR/JPY pair from the shorter time frame charts, selling rallies as they occur. Ultimately, we expect this market to reach towards the 127 handle again.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair bounced off of the 0.70 level during the course of the week, showing that we are at least seeing a reaction to the psychological nature of the round number. However, this is a market still has plenty of bearish pressure in it, so we are waiting for rallies that show signs of exhaustion in order to start selling. If we break down below the 0.6950 level, where sellers there as well. We have no interest in buying this market at the moment as it is so negative.

 

USD/CAD forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course the week but turned back around to form a bit of a hammer. Quite frankly, it looks as if we are trying to build up enough pressure to break out to the upside for a longer-term move, and that is what we anticipate happening next. We look at pullbacks as value, and recognize that there is a massive support region between the 1.30 level, and the 1.28 level. We have no interest in selling, and look at pullbacks as potential value in the US dollar.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week but turned back around near the 122 level to form a bit of a hammer. We believe that this market will continue to go higher, as we reach towards the 125 level. Even if we fell from here, we think that the 120 level below is going to be massively supportive as well. We have no interest in selling this market and with the Nonfarm Payroll numbers coming out later this week, we could very well get a move.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but found enough resistance near the 0.73 level to turn things around and form a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a negative sign and should send this market back down to the 0.70 level, but it might take a while to get there. This is a very tight market and therefore we are not fans of trading from a longer-term perspective. We are going to stick towards the short-term charts in order to start selling again.

 

GBP/USD forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, testing the 1.52 level for resistive action. It did in fact find it in that area, and as a result we turned back around and fell all the way back down towards the 1.50 level. The 1.50 level should be supportive based upon the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant number, and of course the fact that was previously support and resistance back during the end of last year.
Having said that though, we believe that the shooting star from the previous week was the harbinger of bad news for this market, and now we are simply waiting to break down. A move below the 1.50 level sends this market looking for the 1.45 handle next in our opinion. The US dollar continues to be the strongest currency in the world, and therefore it’s not a surprise if that happens. After all, you have to keep in mind that the Federal Reserve is probably the one central bank rate now that it has to seriously think about raising interest rates, and with that it will make quite a bit of sense to see the US dollar continue to appreciate. On top of that, you have to keep in mind also that the British are highly beholden to what goes on in the European Union as it is their largest market that the deal with, and that of course has a bit of a drag on the British economy itself.
At this point in time, we do not see scenarios in which we are willing to buy this pair, at least not until we break above the top of the shooting star from the previous week, but quite frankly that would not give us much in the way of room to trying to continue to go higher and reach towards the 1.55 handle. If we can break above the 1.55 handle, that of course would be significant but we do not anticipate seeing that anytime soon. We remain bearish, and recognize that most of the market does as well.

EUR/USD forecast for the week of November 30, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but then turned around to form a bit of a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a negative sign, and it now seems as if we are going to reach towards the 1.05 handle. A break down below there could open the door to the parity level, but quite frankly the one thing that we know we are not going to do is buy this pair. We feel that the resistance above from the previous ascending trend line should continue to put quite a bit of pressure on this market.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – November 29, 2015

EURUSD’s downward movement from 1.1713 extended to as low as 1.0566. Further decline to test 1.0462 (Mar 13 low) support is possible, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the long term downtrend from 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high), then next target would be at 1.0000 area. Near term resistance is at 1.0850, only break above this level could bring price back to 1.2000 area.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – November 29, 2015

GBPUSD stays below the downward trend line on daily chart, and remains in downtrend from 1.5929. As long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.4700 area. Only a clear break above the trend line resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

 

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – November 29, 2015

AUDUSD continued its sideways movement in a trading range between 0.6907 and 0.7439. As long as 0.7439 resistance holds, the sideways movement could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high), another fall towards 0.6500 is still possible after consolidation.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – November 29, 2015

USDJPY remains in short term uptrend from 118.16, the fall from 123.75 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Further rise to test 125.85 resistance is still possible, a break of this level will signal resumption of the long term uptrend from 75.57 (Oct 31, 2011 low), then next target would be at 135.00 area. Near term support is at 122.00, only break below this level could bring price back to 118.00 zone.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – November 29, 2015

USDCAD is facing 1.3456 resistance, a break of this level will signal resumption of the uptrend from 1.1919, then the following upward movement could bring price to 1.4000 area. Near term support is at 1.3200, only break below this level could trigger another fall to 1.2500 zone.

 

How China, India drive world Coal trade?

China, India accounted for 98% of the increase in world coal trade from 2008 to 2013, but declines in China’s import demand have led to declines in total world coal trade.

Global trade of coal grew dramatically from 2008 to 2013, but in 2014, it declined for the first time in 21 years. China and India accounted for 98% of the increase in world coal trade from 2008 to 2013, but declines in China’s import demand have led to declines in total world coal trade in 2014 and, based on preliminary data, in 2015 as well.

Nearly all of the 47% growth in total world coal trade between 2008 and 2013 was driven by rising coal import demands by countries in Asia, specifically China and India. Coal trade in the rest of the world declined over the same period. However, data for 2014 and 2015 indicate a reversal of this trend, with declines in China’s coal imports currently on pace to more than offset slight increases in other countries in both years.

China imported 341 million short tons of coal in 2013, up from 45 million short tons in 2008, while India imported 203 million short tons, up from 69 million short tons. About 75% of China’s coal imports and 90% of India’s coal imports were steam coal, used primarily for electricity generation. Coking coal, used in the manufacture of steel, made up the remaining volumes.

While China’s coal imports have been declining in 2014 and 2015, India’s imports continued to rise in 2014 and through the first half of 2015 as coal demand increased at a faster pace than domestic supplies. In China, rising output from domestic mines, improvements in coal transportation infrastructure, and slower growth in domestic coal demand have resulted in lower domestic coal prices and reduced demand for coal imports.

Additionally, the Chinese government introduced a number of measures in late 2014 and early 2015 aimed at supporting China’s coal industry. These measures include re-establishing taxes on coal imports; placing limits on allowable sulfur, ash, and trace elements for imported coal; and issuing a directive to major utilities to reduce their annual coal imports by approximately 55 million short tons.

In India, efforts are underway to substantially increase domestic coal production over the next few years and to complete three major rail transportation projects for facilitating increased shipments of coal from major producing regions in northeastern India to demand centers in other parts of the country.

Although India’s coal producers have already increased domestic production in 2014 and through the first few months of 2015, the first of India’s three major coal railway projects, the Jharsuguda-Barpali railway link, is not scheduled to be completed until approximately 2017.

 

How Interest Equalisation scheme will boost India’s Cotton textile exports?

The scheme will provide much-needed boost to exports of cotton textiles as all categories of fabrics and made-ups have been covered under the scheme.
India has recently announced the interest equalization scheme in a bid to provide stability and competitiveness to exports. Experts say that the scheme will be a boost India’s cotton textile exports.
R K Dalmia,Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council (Texprocil) Chairman, told media that the scheme will provide much-needed boost to exports of cotton textiles as all categories of fabrics and made-ups have been covered under the scheme. India’s Cotton exports have suffered on account of an import restrictionpolicy from China, the biggest cotton buyer.
Economic Times points out that scheme has excluded cotton yarns. Further, the scheme is also not made available to the merchant exporters.
S C Ralhan, President, Federation of Indian Export Organization (FIEO) said that this was long awaited but he is very happy that Scheme has been announced for 5 years which will provide stability and will help the exporters to factor the same in their pricing to become more competitive.
Ralhan said it is good that Government has announced the Scheme with effect from 1st April, 2015 with 3% benefit for existing sectors of exports and few sunrise sectors of exports.
He said credit cost has become all the more important as the cycle of exports has elongated due to global contraction in demand and liquidity forcing the exporters to borrow for longer period. The benefit under Interest Equalization Scheme will help Indian exporters to compete more effectively against their competitors

Indian agri counters trade moderately volatile

No major development was reported with respect to the demand-supply scenario of respective counters or weather situation, essential for the Rabi crop planting.
Agri markets overall, witnessed moderate volatility amid limited participation ahead of the weekend. All in all, no major development was reported with respect to the demand-supply scenario of respective counters or weather situation, essential for the Rabi crop planting.
The NCDEX released a circular during late hours of Thursday, stating that for soybean futures there will be an additional Margin of 5% on both the Long side and Short side on all running contracts and yet to be launched contract. Similarly additional Margin of 5% on both the Long side and Short side will be imposed in Rapeseed Mustard Seed December 2015 and January 2016 expiry contracts.
The exchange shall also impose Additional Margin of 5% on both the Long side and Short side on all running contracts, and yet to be launched contract in Castor Seed. Margin imposition in each of these commodities shall be effective from Monday November 23, 2015. This move seems to be initiated to control speculative activities in these counters.

MCX Gold likely to see bounce back at lower levels

On the domestic bourses, movement in local currency rupee has affected the prices.Gold can move in the range of 25100-25500levels.
Bullion counter may witness bounce back at lower levels as physical buying and decline in greenback may give some support to the prices. On the domestic bourses, movement in local currency rupee has affected the prices which can move in the range of 66-66.3levels in near term.
Meanwhile dollar index can move in the range of 99.5-100.5levels. Gold can move in the range of 25100-25500levels while Silver can move in the range of 33300-33780levels, according to SMC Global. Gold December contract has been moving 0.42 per cennt to 25136 level on Monday(11.39am).
Recently gold prices rose for a second day in a row after touching their lowest level in more than five years, one day after the Fed indicated an interest rate increase could be in the cards or next month. Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes from its October meeting. The market interpreted the news that a December rise in U.S. interest rates is till likely, but further increases will be staggered slowly.
A rise in interest rates will strengthen the U.S. dollar, which is bad news for dollar-denominated commodities such as gold. Some members are still wary of hiking too soon and stifling the momentum of the economy.
The flip side of that argument is made by members who believe the Fed could further mis-communicate its intentions to the market and take a bigger credibility hit that could jeopardize monetary policy going forward. The World Gold Council has, just reported the second-highest ever quarterly central bank purchases. The minutes show Fed members continue to debate back and forth on the right call to make for the U.S. economy.

 

Gold forecast for the week of November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

Gold markets initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support to turn things back around and form a bit of a hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign, so we could break out to the upside. However, we need to break above the 1100 level to even consider that being possible, and truthfully the daily charts are telling a little bit of a different story. With this, the one thing that we do count on is volatility and therefore we feel it’s probably best to trade gold from the shorter-term perspective at the moment.

 

Silver forecast for the week of November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

Silver markets initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but then turned back around to test the $14 level. We believe that the $14 level below is essentially the “floor” in this market, and that it is only a matter of time before we break down below and continue the longer-term downtrend. We believe that this market will reach towards the $12 level next, and that any rally at this point in time seems to be a bit of an opportunity to sell this already bearish market. We have no interest in buying.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude
The light sweet crude market had a very volatile week, bouncing off of the $40 level at for support, but found the $42 level as resistance. Ultimately, this is a market that appears to be ready to go lower, and a break below $40 should send this market looking for $39, and then eventually the $35 level. However, we break above the $42 level, we feel that the market will more than likely have a massive amount of resistance as well as the $44 level. With this, we have no interest in buying but also recognize that rallies could happen. However, those rallies will continue to be selling opportunities at this point in time. We don’t see any type of buying opportunity until we are well above the $50 level, and as a result believe that the market has a massive amount of weight above it.
Brent
Brent markets initially fell during the course of the week as well, but found enough support below the $44 level to turn things back around and form a hammer. Ultimately, we could break above the top the hammer which is technically a buy signal, but we have no interest whatsoever in doing that. We want to wait to see whether or not we get a resistant candle above in order to start selling yet again. If we break below the bottom of the hammer, that is also a very negative signal, and should send this market looking at much lower levels, perhaps the $40 handle next.
As long as the US dollar continues to strengthen, it’s very difficult for the Brent market or the light sweet crude market to rally. We think commodities in general will continue to be soft, as the US dollar will demand more value in various “things.” Ultimately, we also have to keep in mind that the demand for crude oil most certainly is falling overall, as the global economy seems to be somewhat stagnant still, despite the stimulus coming out of several central banks.

Natural Gas forecast for the week of November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets fell during the course of the week, forming a bearish engulfing candle. With this being the case, the market looks as if it is ready to go much lower, and as a result we are sellers overall. However, we believe that short-term charts will probably be the best way in order to take advantage of this weakness, so we are sellers of short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion. We believe ultimately this market does reach down to the $2 handle given enough time.

 

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index went back and forth during the course of the week, forming a bit of a neutral candle. With this being the case, the market looks as if it is ready to go higher, but we need to break above the 100 level in order to serve buying. On the other hand though, we get a pullback that show some type of support near the 98 level, we could consider buying there as well as the US dollar without a doubt looks to be one of the strongest currencies in the world.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair initially broke down below the 0.65 level during the course of the week, but turned back around and formed a hammer. The hammer of course is a very positive sign, so if we can break above the top of the hammer, the market will more than likely reach towards the 0.6750 level, where we see quite a bit of resistance. At that point in time, we would love to see some type of resistive candle in order to start selling again. On the other hand, if we break down below the bottom of the hammer, that is a very negative sign as well, sending this market much lower.
You have to keep in mind that the New Zealand dollar is highly sensitive to several things. One of the most important things of course is risk appetite around the world, which seems to be a bit shaky at best. Ultimately, if you keep in mind that the US dollar continues to strengthen overall as well, so it is very possible that we break down from here. At this point in time, it’s not until we get above the 0.70 level that we are comfortable hanging onto a longer-term trade though. If we do, the market should then reach towards the 0.80 level given enough time.
Ultimately, if we break down below the bottom of the hammer for the week, we feel that the market then should reach towards the 0.6250 level below, and then perhaps the 0.60 handle. Keep an eye on the commodity markets in general, as they will have a direct effect on the Kiwi dollar.
You also have to keep an eye on the stock markets, as they are a great barometer for risk appetite. Currently, it does look like we are willing to go a little bit higher, but it seems to have a theme based upon the US dollar itself. It’s more or less a situation where interest-rate simply do not allow the stock markets to go down for any significant amount of time. That being the case, until we get some type of impulsive move to the upside in the stock markets, it’s probably difficult to imagine that the New Zealand dollar itself will be strong.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found enough resistance of the 133 level to turn things back around and start falling again. We did up forming a shooting star, at the bottom of the down move. With this, we are now pressing the 130 level for support, and we believe that a break down below there is in fact the reason to start selling. We have no interest in buying, this market looks far too exhausted at the moment to continue any type of uptrend.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair went back and forth during the course of the week, testing the 0.70 level. This is an area that of course will attract a lot of attention due to the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant number. Ultimately, the market should make a decision one way or the other, but right now it certainly looks like the market is trying to break down. If we can get below the 0.69 level, the market should continue to go much lower. A break above the top of the range probably sends this market to reach towards the 0.73 level again.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the session’s the made-up the previous week. However, we ended up turning back around and formed a shooting star by the time we closed. With this, it looks like the USD/JPY pair may end up being somewhat soft in the short-term, but we think there is more than enough support below to keep this market going higher. Somewhere above the 120 handle, we think that a supportive candle would be a nice buying opportunity as the market should then reach towards the 125 level.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair rose during the course of the week, as we continue to see a bit of support near the 0.70 level. With this being the case, we think it’s only a matter time before the sellers will enter the market though, as we see a significant amount of resistance near the 0.74 level. Ultimately, we are looking for some type of resistant candle in order to start selling, but right now obviously do not have it. We may have to look to shorter-term charts in order to do that though.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of November 23, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week in what would’ve been recognized as a rather volatile candle. However, it looks as if the market should then reach down to the 1.05 handle. Any rally at this point in time it should be thought of as a selling opportunity though, at least as long as we are below the uptrend line that sits above. Ultimately, the market looks very soft, and as a result we think that selling is the only thing that you can do at this point.

 

GBPJPY Ascending Channel (Nov 23, 2015)

GBPJPY has been moving on an uptrend on its 4-hour time frame, with an ascending channel connecting the latest highs and lows of price action. Price is currently testing the channel support at the 186.50 minor psychological level and might be due for a bounce back to the resistance at 189.00.
The pair also seems to be drawing support from the 100 SMA, which has held as a dynamic inflection point. This short-term moving average is above the longer-term 200 SMA, indicating that the uptrend is likely to carry on.
Meanwhile, stochastic has already reached to oversold area so the recent rally might soon turn. RSI is also indicating oversold conditions and might be ready to climb, with price likely to follow suit.
There were no reports released out of the UK and Japan on Friday, and Japanese banks are on holiday today so there are no reports lined up as well. Later on in the week, the BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes are up for release and might spur volatility among yen pairs.
There are no major reports out of the UK, with most of the focus on Japan. The Tokyo and national core CPI readings are lined up on Friday, along with the unemployment rate and household spending data. Strong figures could support the idea that the BOJ isn’t likely to increase its easing efforts anytime soon while weak data could keep the likelihood of more easing in play.

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – November 22, 2015

EURUSD is facing 1.0462 (Mar 13 low) support, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the long term downtrend from 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high) has resumed, then next target would be at 1.0000 area. Resistance is at 1.0900, only break above this level could indicate that lengthier consolidation for the long term downtrend is underway, then another rise towards 1.2000 could be seen.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – November 22, 2015

GBPUSD remains in downtrend from 1.5929, the rise from 1.5027 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Resistance is at the downward trend line on daily chart, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.4700 area. Only a clear break above the trend line resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – November 22, 2015

AUDUSD stays in the trading range between 0.6907 and 0.7439. Resistance is at 0.7439, as long as this level holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high), another fall towards 0.6500 could be expected after consolidation.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – November 22, 2015

USDJPY continued its short term uptrend from 118.16, and the rise extended to as high as 123.75. Further rise to test 125.85 resistance is possible, a break of this level will indicate that the long term uptrend from 75.57 (Oct 31, 2011 low) has resumed, then next target would be at 135.00 area. Support is at 122.00, only break below this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation for the long term uptrend is underway, then another fall to 118.00 area could be seen.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – November 22, 2015

USDCAD’s short term uptrend from 1.2831 extended to as high as 1.3370. Further rise to test 1.3456 resistance is possible next week, a break of this level will indicate that the uptrend from 1.1919 has resumed, then next target would be at 1.4000 area. However, as long as 1.3456 resistance holds, one more fall to 1.2500 area is still possible.

 

Gold forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

Gold markets fell significantly during the course of the week, testing the $1088 level. With this being the case, the market looks as if it is ready to go lower, and if we can make a fresh, new low, we are sellers as we will more than likely reach towards the $1000 handle at that point. That is an area that was a source of major bullishness years ago, and at that point in time we would anticipate that perhaps the gold market could begin to think about turning around. However, in the meantime the strengthening US dollar will continue to work against the value of precious metals.

 

Silver forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

Silver markets fell again during the course of the week, as we continue to see bearishness in precious metals overall. This of course was accelerated on Friday as the Nonfarm Payroll numbers of course was better than anticipated, and that of course put pressure on this market. We believe that the $14.00 level below is massively supportive, but if we can get below there the silver markets will collapse at that point. A supportive candle near 14 points or zero dollars of course would be a potential buying opportunity but with the strengthening US dollar it’s hard to get excited about precious metals at the moment.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found enough resistance at the $48 level to turn back around and form a rather negative candle. With this being the case, the market looks as if it is ready to continue to go back and forth, and as a result it is only a matter of time before we have to make some type of impulsive move. We think that the market is probably going to try to reach down towards the $40 level, with the US dollar strengthening the way it has been. If we can break above $52, at that point in time we feel that it is a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of situation. Ultimately though, we think that this market is probably to be easier to trade for short-term traders.

Brent

The Brent market initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found far too much resistance above $50 to continue going higher. With that being the case, we feel that the turnaround show significant weakness and we should continue to go lower. Perhaps even as low as $44 given enough time, but ultimately we recognize that this is a market that is probably easier to trade off of short-term charts. Ultimately, we think that the markets are getting ready to break down and head towards the $44 level but we don’t understand whether or not the markets will be able to pick up enough bearish pressure to break down below there.

We do have a little bit of a push and pull effect, because the reality is that the US dollar is probably the main driving factor in this market. We also recognize that there could be a bit more in the way of demand though, especially if the US economy is starting to hire more workers. Because of this, volatility will be the way going forward, and with that we need to continue to look to short-term charts in the meantime.

 

Natural Gas forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets bounced during the course of the week, but as you can see found plenty of support to turn this market back around. Because of this, the market looks as if it is ready to go a little bit higher from here, but ultimately we think that selling is the only thing you can do. If we see a resistive candle though, that is more than enough of a reason to start shorting this market yet again. Ultimately, we believe that this market reaches down to the $2.00 level.

 

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index shot higher during the course of the week, breaking well above the top of the shooting star from the previous week at the 98 handle. Because of this, we believe that the US dollar continues to go much higher and will reach towards the 100 level first, and then eventually the 102 level at this point in time. Ultimately, we think pullbacks offer plenty of value and that the US dollar will continue to be preferred over most other currencies in the world as the Friday session was so explosive. This of course was because of the Nonfarm Payroll Numbers being much higher than anticipated, almost double what was estimated. This of course is good for the US dollar, especially considering that being stronger employment wise, there is a good chance that the interest-rate outlook in America is stronger than Europe obviously.

Any pullback at this point in time should offer value, as the market looks set to go much higher. We have in fact broken above the top of a descending triangle of sorts, so this suggests that there has been a sea change of attitude when it comes to the US dollar, and that of course should continue the uptrend that we have seen over the longer term. Ultimately, the market should offer plenty of opportunities for long-term buyers and short-term buyers alike.

With the European Central Bank suggesting that more quantitative easing could be coming, it makes sense of the Euro will continue to be relatively soft. Remember, that is more than 40% of this contract, and with that being the case, it makes sense that we continue to go much higher. In fact, the USD/JPY pair broke out to the upside as well, and that of course suggests that this pair should go higher also as it is the third most important part of this contract as well. Ultimately, this should work against commodities as well as other currencies, so we believe that the US dollar is King again.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair broke down during the course of the week, testing the 0.65 handle. The area of course has been resistance in the past as well as support, so we believe that this market is difficult to trade from a longer-term perspective. We think that short-term trades will more than likely offer opportunity from time to time, but at this point in time we have no interest whatsoever in placing longer-term trades although we certainly believe that the downward pressure should continue to push this market overall.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/JPY pair broke down initially during the course of the week but bounced enough towards the end in order to form a bit of a hammer. With this being the case, the market could bounce towards the 135 handle again and as a result a break above the top of the hammer could be the signal in order to start buying again. We have no interest in selling, now that we have formed a hammer for the week. In fact, we believe that this market will simply be volatile, but ultimately steady in its decline.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair had a very volatile week, falling all the way towards the 0.70 level. However, we turned back around to form a hammer, and that hammer of course suggests that we are going to go higher. If we can break above the top of the hammer, this market should then go to the 0.74 level. That level of course is going to be massively resistive though, so we have no interest in hanging on to a move above there. A fall from here is something that we would ignore until we make a fresh, new low.

 

USD/CAD forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the top of the shooting star from the previous week. Ultimately, we believe that this market continues to go higher due to the breaking out to the upside, but we recognize of the 1.35 level of course is resistive. Any pullback at this point in time should be buying opportunities oh, and we will treat them as such. The 1.28 level below should continue to be the bottom of the support, so it’s not until we break down below there that we would consider selling.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair broke higher during the course of the week, using the 120 level as a massive springboard. Ultimately though, the market should continue to go higher, perhaps heading to the 125 handle. Ultimately, pullbacks should continue to be buying opportunities, but eventually once we get above the 125 handle, the market then is free to go much higher. We have no interest in selling this market at all and believe that the stronger than anticipated jobs number on Friday will continue to strengthen this pair over the longer term.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned back around to slam into the 0.70 region. This area is the absolute bottom of the market, but it now looks as if the market could very well break below there. If we make a fresh, new low, the market will then start to reach towards the 0.68 handle. Any bounce from here should be a selling opportunity, and as a result we of course will sell resistive candles above as long as we stay below the 0.75 handle.

 

GBP/USD forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found the 1.55 level to be far too resistive. With that being the case, the market broke down below the 1.52 handle. Because of this, and the fact that we are closing towards the bottom of the candle suggests that perhaps we will continue to go lower. The 1.50 level is just below, so that could cause a little bit of a bounce, but at this point in time we think that would only end up being a selling opportunity as the us dollar is favored.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of November 9, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair down during the course of the week, as we continue to see the Euro fall. Having said that, there are a couple things that we are paying attention to here at Star Fing about this chart. The first one of course is the obvious break down below the ascending trend line that we have been paying so much attention to. We had formed a significant hammer from the previous week based upon the trend line, and the fact that we have fallen below that is bearish for a couple of different reasons. The first one of course is the fact that we broke down below the bottom of a hammer, which shows a reemergence of negativity in this market, and means that the sellers have taken control again.

Another negative aspect of this of course is the trend line break, and the breaking below of the 1.08 level. That being the case, the market is closing towards the bottom of the range for the week, and that of course is negative as well. This was predicated mainly upon the jobs number on Friday being much stronger than anticipated, and with that it makes a lot of sense that people will begin to suspect that the Federal Reserve is closer to raising interest rates than fun just a couple of weeks ago. On top of that, the European Central Bank obviously has rattled the markets a bit as they suggested further quantitative easing could be the way going forward.

The fact that we broke down below the bottom of an ascending triangle is also very troubling, and this suggests that we have recently seen a shift in the thought process of traders. Rallies at this point in time should be selling opportunities, as soon as they show signs of exhaustion and resistance. The market has spoken its desires this past week, and as a result we feel that negativity will continue to be the way going forward. At this point in time, we don’t really have a scenario in which we start buying.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – November 8, 2015

EURUSD continued its downward movement from 1.1713, and the fall extended to as low as 1.0705. Further decline to test 1.0462 (Mar 13 low) support could be expected, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the long term downtrend from 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high) has resumed, then next target would be at 1.0000 area. Resistance is at 1.1100, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – November 8, 2015

GBPUSD’s downward movement from 1.5929 extended to as low as 1.5027. Further decline could be expected over the next several weeks, and next target would be at 1.4700 area. Resistance is located at the downward trend line on daily chart, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend will continue.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – November 8, 2015

AUDUSD stayed in the trading range between 0.6907 and 0.7439. The price action in the range is likely consolidation of the downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high), another fall towards 0.6500 could be expected after consolidation. Support is at 0.6907, a breakdown below this level could signal resumption of the downtrend.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – November 8, 2015

USDJPY broke above 121.62 resistance, and continued its upward movement from 116.13, and the rise extended to as high as 123.26. Further rise to test 125.85 resistance is possible, a break of this level will indicate that the long term uptrend from 75.57 (Oct 31, 2011 low) has resumed, then next target would be at 135.00 area.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – November 8, 2015

USDCAD’s rise from 1.2831 extended to as high as 1.3317. Further rise to test 1.3456 resistance is possible next week, a break of this level will signal resumption of the uptrend from 1.1919, then next target would be at 1.4000 area. On the other side, as long as 1.3456 resistance holds, one more fall to 1.2500 area is still possible.

 

NICKEL MCX NOV 2015
Sell @ 663 SL @ 668 TP @ 649.

 

ZINC MCX NOV 2015
Sell @112, SL @ 114 TP @ 110,

 

Indian economy will grow around 7.5% in FY16: Moody’s

Growth has been supported by low inflation and the gradual implementation of structural reforms. Moody’s points out that an accommodative monetary policy should support the growth environment.

India will record GDP growth of around 7.5% in 2015 and 2016, according to the latest report by Moody’s . Growth has been supported by low inflation and the gradual implementation of structural reforms. Moody’s points out that an accommodative monetary policy should support the growth environment.

Moody’s Investors Service says that it has changed its outlook for India’s banking system to stable from negative because of the gradual improvement in the operating environment for Indian banks.

“The stable outlook on India’s banking system over the next 12-18 months reflects our expectation that the banks’ gradually improving operating environment will result in a slower pace of additions to problem loans, leading to more stable impaired loan ratios,” says Srikanth Vadlamani, a Moody’s Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.

In relation to government support, Moody’s says the Indian government will continue to provide a high level of support to the banks. For the PSU banks in particular, Moody’s expects that the government will not make any changes that could suggest the possibility of reduced support to or differentiation among the banks, because doing so could entail significant systemic risks

 

SILVER MCX DEC 2015
BUY @36665, SL @ 36625, TP @ 36800 – 37000,

 

SILVER MCX DEC 2015

Sell @36250, SL @ 36545, TP @ 36050 – 35850,

 

COPPER MCX NOV 2015

Sell @341, SL @ 344, TP @ 337,

 

 

ZINC MCX NOV 2015

Sell @112, SL @ 114 TP @ 110,

 

NICKEL MCX NOV 2015

Sell @ 658 SL @ 668 TP @ 643 .

 

Indian agri markets continue to trade with high volatility

Chana recovered moderately after the recent massive fall, while Guar failed to recover on low demand.

Agri markets continued to trade with high volatility on Friday ahead of the weekend holidays as prices failed to hold onto the higher levels with Govt continuously initiating steps to control rising prices.

Chana recovered moderately after the recent massive fall, while Guar failed to recover on low demand.

Spices too failed to maintain any upside movement as Oil complex weakened despite the Festive season domestic demand; cooler weather kept trend up for Mentha Oil as the winter season demand is expected to pick up in coming weeks.

 

India need to import 10MT of Pulses to cool down prices: ASSOCHAM

The issue of meeting the domestic demand for pulses goes beyond facing the challenge of footing increased import bill.

India may have to import a large quantity of 10 million tonnes of pulses if the domestic production-consumption mismatch has to be bridged, leaving the government with a daunting task, an ASSOCHAM study has said.

“Considering deficit in rainfall for 2015-16, it is expected that the production of pulses for the year would decrease slightly to 17 million tonnes as against 17.2 million tonnes recorded in 2014-15. Further with the rise in demand it is expected that a total of 10.1 million tonnes of pulses might have to be imported,” the paper noted.

But given the global supply constraints, the demand-supply gap may be difficult to achieve this year. “While we are coping with the difficult situation this year, we cannot afford to continue with it since shooting prices of essential food items create adverse eco system and negative discourse. Besides, it adds to food prices which cannot be allowed again to creep into the main inflation,” ASSOCHAM Secretary General Mr D S Rawat said.

Maharashtra is the largest kharif pulses producer in the country followed by Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. The respective shares of these major states in total kharif pulse production are 24.9, 13.5, 13.2, 10.0 and 8.4 percent respectively. These five States together account for about 70.0 percent of the country’s total kharif pulse production. All these states have witnessed weather related issues affecting the production, the paper said.

The issue of meeting the domestic demand for pulses goes beyond facing the challenge of footing increased import bill. The efficient distribution of available pulses across regions is going to be the biggest challenge to the policy makers.” Therefore, it would remain a challenge for the Central and state governments to ensure significant improvement in the pricing situation The inefficient supply systems coupled with inherent weaknesses in regional markets in India are expected to further contribute to problem”.

Besides, from the long term perspective, excessive imports would affect India’s efforts towards achieving self sufficiency, ensuring rural livelihood and ensuring country’s nutritional security. Therefore, the Government must prepare an implementable action plan to incentivize farmers to cultivate more pulses by providing seeds and technical support, the chamber added.

The major pulse crops grown in India are Gram and Tur. Gram, with a production of 3 more than 7 million tonnes, contributes more than 41 percent in the total pulse production of the country. Tur, with a production of 2.7 million tonnes and a contribution of about 16 percent, is the second major pulse crop. Other leading pulse crops in India are Urad and Moong.

 

Silver forecast for the week of November 2, 2015, Technical Analysis

The silver markets initially rallied during the course of the week, touching just below the $16.50 level. At this point in time, the market look like it had broken out to the upside, but turned back around drastically in order to form a massive shooting star. It now appears the 15.50 level will be supportive, and if we can get below there the market will probably drop down to 14.50 or so. We have no interest in buying at the moment, this market simply looks too soft but nonetheless we would anticipate a lot of volatility regardless of what happens.

 

Gold forecast for the week of November 2, 2015, Technical Analysis

Gold markets tried to rally initially during the course of the week but turned back around and ended up forming a fairly negative candle. As we close below the $1150 level, it appears of the market is going to continue to drift lower overall. We have no interest in buying this market right now from a longer-term perspective yet, but do recognize that the $1100 level could end up being massively supportive. Longer-term trading gold is going to be very difficult although we do think that it goes higher over the longer term in terms of years, at this point in time there’s no rush to get involved.

 

Natural Gas Monthly Technical Analysis for November 2015

Let’s start by saying that the natural gas fundamentals are extremely bearish. Natural gas stocks are nearing 4 trillion cubic feet. Demand could be down in early November if unseasonably warm temperatures linger. Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily, weekly and monthly swing charts.

This being said, December Natural Gas futures could still rally in November because of technically oversold conditions and shifts in weather patterns throughout the month.

We’ll be going into the month with the market sitting at its lowest level since 2012. Currently, total natural gas storage sits at 3.877 trillion cubic feet. This is 409 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 153 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3.724 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

According to a recent report by the U.S. Energy Information Agency, supply is expected to peak at 3.956 this November, but some traders and analysts believe the total could top 4 trillion.

Everyone knows the fundamental story and can see the chart pattern. Therefore, your trading skill is going to make the difference this month. November’s price action is likely to be highlighted by a two-sided trade since the major players are likely to be trend and counter-trend traders.

You’ll have your trend traders who will be looking to press the market lower, or be waiting for rallies to sell. You’ll have your counter-trend traders who will be looking to take advantage of technically oversold conditions and the return to normal temperatures at times.

Counter-trend traders will be looking for seasonal buying opportunities while trend traders will be looking for fresh shorting opportunities due to the El Nino effect which could keep temperatures above average until March.

As a trader, this month you’ll have to be flexible enough to trade both sides. You’ll also have to take small losses if wrong especially if caught on the short-side because it looks like there is more room to run. The short side looks to offer limited downside opportunities if you sell weakness so bearish traders should be looking for rallies to sell.

 

Crude Oil Monthly Technical Analysis for November 2015 

January Crude Oil closed at $47.27, up $1.11, or 2.40%. The market posted an outside move during the month, indicating investor indecision. Crude oil has been in a holding pattern since reaching a low in September. Helping to put a lid on any rallies is the huge supply glut. Helping to underpin the market is the continual drop in the number of oil rigs. The market could remain in a range this month because of the OPEC meeting on December 1. Traders may be reluctant to take a position in either direction until they know what the cartel is going to do about its excess production.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Crude Oil Inventories

Week-Ending

October 2: 3.1 M

October 9: 7.6 M

October 16: 8.0 M

October 23: 3.4 M

Total supply remained around 480.0 million barrels, putting it near an 80-year high.

OPEC also continued to produce about 2 million barrels above demand.

U.S. Rig Count (Data made available by Baker Hughes)

September 25: 640

October 2: 614

October 9: 605

October 16: 595

October 23: 594

October 30: 578

Technically, the main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart. The main range is $65.56 to $39.97. Its retracement zone is $52.77 to $55.78.

The short-term range is $39.97 to $52.05. Its pivot or 50% level is $46.01. The market straddled this level for the second month before closing above it. Trader reaction to this level is likely to control the direction of the market this month.

A sustained move over $46.01 will signal the presence of buyers. If aggressive buyers continue to come in to support the market then crude oil may test the main 50% level at $52.77. This is followed by a steep downtrending angle at $53.56 and a Fibonacci level at $55.78.

A sustained move under $46.01 will indicate the presence of sellers. However, don’t look for the start of a steep decline unless the market crosses to the weak side of a downtrending angle at $41.56.

Look for a sideways trade this month. Sellers should continue to come in on rallies because of the supply glut. Buyers are likely to support the market on dips because the drop in the rig count could lead to further cuts in U.S. production.

 

EUR/GBP Monthly Technical Analysis for November 2015

The EUR/GBP sold off in October, weakened by the strong possibility of fresh stimulus from the European Central Bank as early as December. The Forex pair closed at .7130, down .0257, or 3.48%.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi delivered the decisive blows that crashed the Euro against the British Pound with his comments about extending and expanding QE while surprising investors with talk of a rate cut and a “vigilant” hint of imminent action.

Comments that helped break the single-currency included, “It was not a wait-and-see, but it was a work-and-assess”. He also said, “We are ready to act if needed, we are open to a whole menu of monetary policy instruments.” Finally, he added, “The degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined at our December policy meeting when the new…projections will be available, referring to quarterly growth and inflation forecasts issued by ECB staff economists.

I interpreted Draghi’s comments to mean that if QE isn’t working then do more. This is basically the same steps that other central banks have taken. If the Euro Zone economy doesn’t improve in the next month then look for a major Christmas present from the ECB in the form of an interest rate cut, an expansion of the ECB’s 1.1 trillion bond-buying program and an extension of the purchases beyond September 2016.

The primary focus early this month will be on the BoE’s monetary policy statement on Thursday, November 5 also known as “Super Thursday”. The BoE is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.50%. However, investors should look for increased volatility because the central bank is also expected to release its update quarterly Inflation report. BoE Governor Mark Carney is also scheduled to speak. He is expected to continue to prepare businesses and households for higher borrowing costs.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart.

Based on the close at .7130, the first downside target is a long-term uptrending angle at .7065. This level may act like support on the initial test, but it is also a trigger point for a sharp break into the July 2015 main bottom at .6935.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is the October high at .7492 and the May high at .7482

Unless there is a rapid turnaround in the Euro Zone economy, the EUR/GBP is expected to continue to weaken in November as investors prepare for the next move by the European Central Bank in December.

 

USD/JPY Monthly Technical Analysis for November 2015

The USD/JPY finished higher in October, posting a close at 120.645, up 0.7670, or 0.64%. Although the Forex pair closed higher last month, the price action was actually two-sided.

The USD/JPY initially broke after the release of a dismal U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report in early October. It bottomed on October 15, corresponding with a bottom in the U.S. equities market. The Forex pair sold-off on the last day of the month when the Bank of Japan decided to refrain from implementing additional stimulus.

The U.S. Dollar weakened against the Japanese Yen early in the month when a disappointing jobs report changed investors’ minds about a December 2015 rate hike by the Fed. Value-seeking investors stepped into stocks on October 15, reigniting the carry-trade and sending the USD/JPY higher. Finally, late in the month, investors shrugged off a hawkish Fed statement and instead shifted their focus to the dovish BoJ decision to refrain from additional stimulus.

Technically, the main trend is up according to the monthly swing chart. The short-term range is 125.847 to 116.164. Its 50% level or pivot is at 121.006. Trader reaction to this level will likely determine the direction of the market this month.

Based on the close at 120.645, the first key angle to watch comes in at 120.847. Overtaking this angle and the pivot at 121.006 will set a bullish tone. A sustained move over this area will likely lead to a test of a downtrending angle at 123.347. This is followed by another angle at 124.597. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 125.847 top.

A sustained move under 120.847 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is open to the downside with the first target an uptrending angle at 118.816. This angle has given the market guidance for 17 months. A break through this angle will signal a major shift in investor sentiment. This will open up the USD/JPY for a potential break into 116.164.

Traders could be confused by the fundamentals this month so the emphasis should be on the price levels. Fundamentally, the possibility of higher U.S. rates should be bullish for the U.S. Dollar. However, passing on additional stimulus could give the Japanese a boost.

Therefore, look for a bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over 121.006 and a bearish tone to develop on a sustained move under 120.847. Try to keep it simple this month.

 

AUD/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for November 2015

The AUD/USD finished higher in October. The close at .7134 put the Forex pair up 0.0119, or 1.70% for the month. Although the Aussie did manage to finish higher for the month, the trade was volatile. Early in the month, the market rallied after the weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report for September signaled the Fed may delay its interest rate hike. Near the end of the month, a hawkish Fed monetary policy statement drove the market back down.

The direction of the AUD/USD in November could be determined early in the month with the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest interest rate statement on November 3 and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on November 6.

Investors will be looking for hints from the RBA regarding a possible rate cut in December. With the Fed signaling a possible rate hike in December, it’s going to want to see a strong employment report to keep it on course. After the release of last month’s hawkish monetary policy statement, investors have now placed the odds of a December rate hike at 50/50.

Look for a rally in November if the RBA fails to convince investors that a rate cut is imminent and U.S. economic reports continue to come in below expectations. The AUD/USD is likely to break if the RBA comes out strong for a rate cut and the U.S. economy continues to strengthen.

The AUD/USD finished higher in October. The close at .7134 put the Forex pair up 0.0119, or 1.70% for the month. Although the Aussie did manage to finish higher for the month, the trade was volatile. Early in the month, the market rallied after the weaker-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report for September signaled the Fed may delay its interest rate hike. Near the end of the month, a hawkish Fed monetary policy statement drove the market back down.

The direction of the AUD/USD in November could be determined early in the month with the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest interest rate statement on November 3 and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on November 6.

Investors will be looking for hints from the RBA regarding a possible rate cut in December. With the Fed signaling a possible rate hike in December, it’s going to want to see a strong employment report to keep it on course. After the release of last month’s hawkish monetary policy statement, investors have now placed the odds of a December rate hike at 50/50.

Look for a rally in November if the RBA fails to convince investors that a rate cut is imminent and U.S. economic reports continue to come in below expectations. The AUD/USD is likely to break if the RBA comes out strong for a rate cut and the U.S. economy continues to strengthen.

 

GBP/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for November 2015

The GBP/USD overcame early month weakness to close higher in October. A weaker than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report in early October helped put in the bottom because it convinced investors that the Fed would likely postpone a rate hike until at least March 2016.

Late in the month, the Fed issued a hawkish monetary policy statement that increased the probability of a December rate hike. This initially weakened the British Pound, but a series of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic reports helped drive the Sterling higher into the close. The GBP/USD finished October at 1.5426, up 0.0300, or 1.98%.

Also support the Forex pair late in the month was speculative buying tied to the possibility the Bank of England would raise interest rates before the Fed.

The tone of the market could be determined early this month with the Bank of England monetary policy committee set to meet on November 5 and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on November 6.

The primary focus early this month will be on the BoE’s monetary policy statement on Thursday, November 5 also known as “Super Thursday”. The BoE is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.50%. However, investors should look for increased volatility because the central bank is also expected to release its update quarterly Inflation report. BoE Governor Mark Carney is also scheduled to speak. He is expected to continue to prepare businesses and households for higher borrowing costs.

Late last month, the U.S. Federal Reserve said, “In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the committee will assess progress – both realized and expected – toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.”

The Fed also dropped a warning on global economic slowdown, a step which some believe, brings the central bank closer to a rate hike. The hawkish Fed statement raised the probability of a rate hike in December to 50 percent, up from 30 percent before the statement, according to the Fed Funds futures contract.

Based on the Fed’s statement, this month’s Non-Farm Payrolls report for November will be watched closely. Hawkish investors will be looking for it to bounce back from last month’s dismal numbers. The focus will not be on the headline number, but on the Average Hourly Earnings, which are expected to show a rise of 0.2%.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart. The main range is 1.4565 to 1.5929. Its retracement zone is 1.5247 to 1.5086. This zone has provided support the last two months and will remain support this month along with a short-term uptrending angle at 1.5125.

Based on the close at 1.5426, the first upside target is a steep uptrending angle at 1.5685. A sustained rally over this angle will indicate the presence of buyers with the next objective over the near-term, a major 50% level at 1.5878.

On the downside, a failure to hold the Fibonacci level at 1.5086 could trigger the start of a steep break.

Look for a bullish tone this month if the Bank of England is hawkish with its inflation forecast and the U.S. labor market continues to fall short of expectations. A bearish tone will develop if the Bank of England is dovish and the U.S. labor market continues to meet expectations along with improving consumer inflation.

 

EUR/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for November 2015

The EUR/USD sold off in October, weakened by the strong possibility of fresh stimulus from the European Central Bank as early as December and a possible interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve before the end of the year. The Forex pair closed at 1.002, down 0.0174, or 1.56%.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi delivered the decisive blows that crashed the Euro against the British Pound with his comments about extending and expanding QE while surprising investors with talk of a rate cut and a “vigilant” hint of imminent action.

Comments that helped break the single-currency included, “It was not a wait-and-see, but it was a work-and-assess”. He also said, “We are ready to act if needed, we are open to a whole menu of monetary policy instruments.” Finally, he added, “The degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined at our December policy meeting when the new…projections will be available, referring to quarterly growth and inflation forecasts issued by ECB staff economists.

I interpreted Draghi’s comments to mean that if QE isn’t working then do more. This is basically the same steps that other central banks have taken. If the Euro Zone economy doesn’t improve in the next month then look for a major Christmas present from the ECB in the form of an interest rate cut, an expansion of the ECB’s 1.1 trillion bond-buying program and an extension of the purchases beyond September 2016.

In October, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected, but it also surprised investors by making a direct reference to its next meeting in its statement. The statement was perceived by investors as “hawkish” because it opened the door for a possible rate hike before the end of the year.

“In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the committee will assess progress – both realized and expected – toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation,” it said.

The Fed also dropped a warning on global economic slowdown, a step which some believe, brings the central bank closer to a rate hike. The hawkish Fed statement raised the probability of a rate hike in December to 50 percent, up from 30 percent before the statement, according to the Fed Funds futures contract.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the monthly swing chart.

The short-term range is 1.0462 to 1.1712. Its 50% level or pivot price is 1.1087. This level is controlling the short-term direction of the market.

Based on the close at 1.1002, the key area to watch is the pivot at 1.1087, a short-term uptrending angle at 1.1102 and a long-term downtrending angle at 1.1113.

Look for a bearish tone as long as the EUR/USD remains under 1.1087. A bullish tone will develop on a sustained move over 1.1113.

If the selling pressure persists then look for a test of the first downside target at 1.0542. The last potential support angle before the 1.0462 main bottom comes in at

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – October 25, 2015

EURUSD broke below 1.1087 support, indicating that the downtrend from 1.1713 had resumed. Further decline could be expected over the next several weeks, and next target would be at 1.0600 area. Resistance levels are at 1.1250 and 1.1495, only break above these levels could trigger anther rise towards 1.2500.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – October 25, 2015

GBPUSD stays in the downward price channel on daily chart, and remains in downtrend from 1.5929. Resistance is at the top of the channel. As long as the channel resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.4700 area. Only a clear break above the channel resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – October 25, 2015

AUDUSD failed to break above 0.7439 resistance, indicating that the pair remains in downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high), and the rise from 0.6907 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend. Another fall towards 0.6500 could be expected after consolidation. Key resistance is at 0.7650, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – October 25, 2015

USDJPY is facing 121.62 resistance, a break of this level will indicate that the uptrend from 116.13 has resumed, then next target would be at 125.00 area. Support levels are at 118.16 and 116.13, only break below these levels could bring price to 110.00 area.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – October 25, 2015

USDCAD is in downtrend from 1.3456, the rise from 1.2831 is likely correction of the downtrend. Another fall could be expected after correction, and the target would be at 1.2500 area. Resistance is at 1.3456, only break above this level could trigger another rise to 1.4000 zone.

 

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of October 19, 2015

The US Dollar Index initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support near the 94 level to turn things back around and form a hammer. The hammer of course is very bullish but as you can see on the chart I have marked out a potential descending triangle. If we can break down below the bottom of which I have listed as 93, this market could break down significantly in it could be the trend change in the US dollar that people have been waiting for.

With this, below the 93 handle we are sellers for a longer-term move. We believe that the market will probably reach down to the 90 handle first, and then eventually down too much lower levels, probably even 86 and then 82. At this point in time, a lot of the move higher has been based upon expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates sometime this year. They clearly seem to be quite a bit less certain as once thought, and with that it makes sense that this market would drop significantly. After all, the one thing you can say about the US dollar is that it’s been overbought for some time.

On the other hand, we did form a hammer. You do have to respect the fact that we have seen so much support, and as a result a break above the top the hammer would be a buying opportunity. However, it does appear that the next 6.50 level is offering a significant amount of resistance. If we did break above there though, it would essentially “kill” the descending triangle and send this market looking for the 98 handle which would be simple rectangular consolidation. At this point in time, we are most certainly at interesting levels.

For those of you who are longer-term traders, pay attention to the 93 handle below, and of course the 96.50 level above. Those are the 2 levels that will determine the next move for longer-term traders in this contract.

 

Gold forecast for the week of October 19, 2015

The gold markets broke higher during the course of the week, testing the 1190 handle. However, we did pullback slightly at the end of the week as we are approaching a significant amount of resistance. Nonetheless, it does appear that the market has broken out and is trying to reenter the previous consolidation area. By doing so, it should go as high as $1240, but it is going to be rather choppy so at this point in time it’s probably best traded via short-term charts. Once we get above the 1240 handle though, it becomes much more palatable for long-term buyers.

 

Silver forecast for the week of October 19, 2015

Silver markets initially tried to fall during the course the week but then turned back around and broke above the $16 handle. Because of this, it appears that there is significant bullish pressure below to push this market higher. However, we are reentering a massive consolidation area from previous, so it is very likely that we will struggle going forward. That’s not to say that we won’t go higher, just that it is probably going to be easier to trade off of short-term charts at this point in time.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of October 19, 2015

Light Sweet Crude

Believe sweet crude market fell during the course of the week, as the $50 level was far too resistive to continue going higher. Because of this, we bounced off of the $46 handle after a considerable pullback, and it appears now that the market is simply going to grind in a fairly small consolidation area. With that, we believe that the market has to break above the $50 level for the longer-term trader to take advantage of any clear-cut signal. At that point in time, we feel the market would probably reach towards the $60 handle next, but regardless it will be a volatile right higher as trend changes typically are. We have no interest in selling, at least not until we get below the $44 level, which would signify a major breakdown in support.

Brent

Brent markets did the same thing, but fell from the $54 level. We crashed into the $50 handle, and we recognize that the $48 level below is massively supportive. We essentially think that is a “floor” in this market place, and a break down below that level would be very negative, probably opening the door to reach towards the $44 level given enough time. Having said that though, we still favor the upside given enough momentum. Longer-term traders will probably continue to favor the upside as there is much more value to be had. Even if we broke down from here, it is very likely that the market will be far too choppy and tight to make serious money on the longer-term charts.

If we broke above the $56 level, at that point in time we recognize that the market would essentially be changing trends, and as a result we would be willing to deal with massive amounts of volatility. However, at that point time you have to look at it as more and investment, and less a trade. At one point or another, markets will recognize that oil is undervalued, and when they do, we could have the makings of a nice career making trade for some people.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of October 19, 2015

The NZD/USD pair had a pretty volatile week, but ultimately broke above the 0.6750 level, an area that had been very resistive in the past. Because of this, we believe that this market continues to go higher, but it will be very difficult to buy the New Zealand dollar off of the longer-term charts. We believe it will only be a matter of time before we go higher, but it’s probably going to be easier to trade off of the shorter-term charts as we see significant resistance near the 0.70 handle.

 

EUR/JPY forecast for the week of October 19, 2015

The EUR/JPY pair fell significantly during the course of the week, testing the 135 level. That area offered plenty of support, and we bounced in order to form a bit of a weekly hammer. Because of this, we feel that this market will ultimately go higher but we need to see this market break above the top of the candle in order to start buying. Quite frankly, this is probably better off traded on a short-term chart, and as a result longer-term traders will probably find the area a little bit tight for their liking.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of October 19, 2015

The EUR/GBP pair tried to break out to the upside during the course of the week but turned back around to form a bit of a shooting star. The shooting star forming at the 0.74 level of course is important, and as a result it looks as if the market isn’t ready to continue going higher yet. However, if we break above the top of the shooting star that would be a very bullish sign. At this point time though, we are not ready to start selling yet as there is far too much in the way of support below.

 

Oil Prices Really Have No Support October 19, 2015

Crude oil ended the week near the top of its trading range bouncing around all week. Crude oil ended at 47.26 but overall is not expected to make headway. Brent oil closed the week above the $50 price, which is has violated several times only to find traders selling off to book profits each time. Oil is expected to decline in the European session on Monday. Oil prices bounced back on Friday after four days of losses as the U.S. oil rig count fell for a seventh week in a row. This morning’s Chinese data did little to support oil prices. With GDP beating expectations slightly, the decline in industrial production offset any gains.
The prime factor supporting prices in the short term is the decision of the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold. There is a very strong correlation between oil prices and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar. Buyers need to use more of their own currency to purchase one barrel and demand declines. Oil price moves down to compensate for the exchange rate appreciation, according to the report.

Had the Federal Reserve decided to increase interest rates in its September meeting, the dollar would have probably strengthened further. Investment flows would have flocked into the dollar-denominated assets to benefit from higher rates and the appreciation that would ensue.

Over the last twelve months, almost one trillion dollars left emerging markets to seek refuge in the U.S., according to NN Investment Partners.

That’s almost twice the amount that was moved from emerging to developed markets in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. A hike in the interest rate in the U.S. would have triggered a new period of outflows, bringing up the dollar and hurting oil exports. The decision to maintain the rate on hold has prevented demand from declining again on account of the dollar.

A second factor helping prices is China’s stimulus plan. For a couple of years after the leadership change in 2013, the authorities adopted a tough position, curbing credit to avoid the formation of bubbles, and reducing investment growth, the research firm said. The message was one of discipline: the goal is to restructure the economy, and China was willing to reduce growth to achieve it.

Director of International Affairs in the National Iranian Oil Company Qamsari said Tehran will continue to sustain its competitive crude oil price with Riyadh in the international markets. “Iran’s light crude is traded higher than Saudi Arabia’s,” he replied to Shana’s query on the kingdom’s price war by cutting its light crude value in global markets. He also said that Japan and South Korea are expected to be the first countries to buy Iran’s crude oil after sanctions are lifted.

In a recent interview with Reuters, Head of Venezuela oil Ramirez said he wants OPEC to cut production by introducing a series of price bands starting at $70 per barrel. The proposals he said would be formally presented for discussion at a meeting of “technical experts” which OPEC is convening on October 21. This has potentially put Venezuela and its close allies within OPEC, including Algeria, Nigeria and Iran, on a collision course with Al-Naimi and his Gulf Arab clique who still appear determined to maintain their current strategy.

According to OPEC’s former president, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, a change in policy is unlikely without any cuts in production being matched by countries outside the group such as Russia and Mexico.

Oil prices cratered late last winter, providing an unexpected windfall of hundreds of millions of dollars for energy consumers in New England, where the number of homes using heating oil ranges from 32 percent in Massachusetts to nearly 70 percent in Maine, the state that’s most dependent on heating oil.

The trend is expected to continue this winter, putting even more money in people’s pocketbooks and smoothing over price spikes caused by inadequate natural gas pipeline capacity in New England, officials say. The latest Maine survey put the average heating oil price at close to $2 per gallon, about 50 cents lower than the same time a year ago.

A combination of lower energy prices and a forecast for a warmer winter will mean savings of 18 percent for propane users and 25 percent for heating oil users over last winter, according to the Energy Information Administration.

 

Asian Currency Traders Mixed After Chinese Data October 19, 2015

Monday morning currency markets started off with a boom, as China released its much anticipated GDP data. Too many surprised GDP beat expectations easing some market stress and allowing traders to move past last month’s stock market dive. The growth reading was down from 7 per cent in the second quarter, which was boosted by trading activity on the share market after it rallied then collapsed during the first half.
The GDP figure is the slowest since the 6.1 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2009, when China was battling the Global Financial Crisis. The market has been expecting growth as low as 6.5 per cent for the quarter and so many will once again question the better than expected result.

China’s central government is targeting growth of around 7 per cent for the full year and has indicated it will intervene if the economy begins to slow sharply.

China’s economic growth slowed less than expected in the third quarter, posting growth of 6.9 per cent, which was still the slowest pace in six years. The reading was marginally better than expectations, but included a sharp fall in fixed asset investment (FAI), which grew at 10.3 per cent in the first nine months of the year, down from 16.1 per cent during the same period last year. The FAI reading was the slowest since December 2000 and its weakness is being attributed to sluggish property construction as the country battles to digest an apartment glut.

The Australian dollar rallied after the data release to trade at 0.7272 adding 6 points ahead of tomorrow’s RBA minutes. Traders are hoping to see that the RBA is considering another rate reduction at its next meeting. The kiwi fell 13 points on the lackluster Chinese industrial production numbers. The New Zealand currency is trading at 0.6797 giving back a bit of last week’s rally. Scoop NZ wrote that Analysts are split on the direction of the New Zealand dollar this week as they assess whether the local currency’s gains have gone too far.

The kiwi may trade between 66 US cents and 70.60 cents this week, according to a BusinessDesk survey of 11 currency analysts. Five expect the kiwi to decline, four say it may rise and two see it remaining largely unchanged. It recently traded at 68 US cents.

On Friday the NZD climbed to its highest price in four months as analysts pulled back expectations for interest rate hikes in the US and factor in better prospects for the local economy following a gain in prices of dairy products, the country’s largest commodity export. The kiwi may consolidate this week as the futures market suggests prices will stabilize at the GlobalDairyTrade auction tomorrow night, analysts said.

The Japanese yen also seemed to diverge as the USDJPY fell 1 point to 119.43 while the EURJPY gained 16 points to 135.73. The US dollar continued to weaken this morning giving back some of its gains after better than expected data on Friday. The Japanese stock market is declining also today, as investors booked profits following the recent strong gains. The Nikkei 225 Index was 176.28 points or 0.96 percent to 18,115.52, off a low of 18,078.43 earlier. Japanese stocks fell for the first time in three days, amid low trading volumes, as steelmakers and tire manufacturers declined and data showed China’s economy grew at the slowest quarterly expansion since 2009.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – October 18, 2015

EURUSD remains in short term downtrend from 1.1713, the rise from 1.1087 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Further decline could be expected after consolidation, and next target would be at 1.0600 area. Resistance levels are at 1.1495 and 1.1713, only break above these levels could trigger anther rise towards 1.2500.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – October 18, 2015

GBPUSD remains in downtrend from 1.5929, the rise from 1.5107 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Another fall could be expected after consolidation, and next target would be at 1.4700 area. Resistance is at 1.5660, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 1.6500.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – October 18, 2015

AUDUSD remains in downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high), the rise from 0.6907 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Resistance is at 0.7439, as long as this level holds, the downtrend could be expected to resume, and further decline to 0.6500 area is still possible. Key resistance is at 0.7650, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – October 18, 2015

USDJPY remains in short term uptrend from 116.13, the fall from 121.62 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Further rise could be expected after consolidation, and the target would be at 125.00 area. Support levels area at 118.16 and 116.13, only break below these levels could bring price to 110.00 area.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – October 18, 2015

USDCAD is now in downtrend from 1.3456. Further decline could be expected after correction, and the target would be at 1.2500 area. Resistance levels are at 1.3200 and 1.3456, only break above these levels could trigger another rise to 1.4000 zone.

 

MCX Gold may move volatile on mixed fundamentals

The pace and timing of the U.S. central bank’s expected rate increase can influence the value and appeal of gold.Gold can move in the range of 26500-26900.

Bullion counter may trade on a volatile path on mixed fundamentals. Uncertainty about hike in interest rates in the US and movement of dollar index can give further direction to Gold price movement, according to SMC Global.

On the domestic bourses, movement of rupee has affected the prices which can move in the range of 64.6-65 in the near term.

Meanwhile dollar index can move in the range of 95-96 levels. Gold price today can move in the range of 26500-26900 while Silver price today can move in the range of 36300-37200, SMC says. Gold was moving 0.24 per cent to 26687level on Monday in MCX(10.32am).

Recently Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed policymakers at the U.S. central bank were unsettled by signs of a global economic slowdown, but that their outlook was not “materially altered”.

The Fed thought the economy was close to warranting an interest rate hike in September but policymakers decided it was prudent to wait for evidence a global economic slowdown was not knocking America off course, minutes from the Sept. 16-17 meeting showed. Some investors bet on a further rate-hike delay in the wake of a disappointing U.S. monthly jobs report.

The pace and timing of the U.S. central bank’s expected rate increase can influence the value and appeal of gold. The Fed has the twin goals of a robust labor market and low, stable inflation.

Policy makers concluded at the meeting they were near their goal of “full employment,” but they weren’t convinced inflation is on its way back to their 2% target after undershooting it for more than three years. Elsewhere, SPDR Gold Trust, the top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, stated that its holdings stood at 687.20 tonnes.

 

Indian agri markets may turn volatile on likely rise in demand

Trend in Indian agri markets continue to be bullish. Traders are waiting for dips before initiating fresh demand in the markets.

In view of the expected pick up in domestic and export demand in the coming weeks, Indian agri market trend may turn volatile.

Medium term trend remains strong on falling stocks and rising demand though the up-trend may be capped by arrivals of new kharif crops.

Trend in Indian agri markets continue to be bullish. Traders are waiting for dips before intitiating fresh demand in the markets.

Amidst high volatility, Agri markets witnessed moderate profit booking by end of the days after showing a strong uptrend throughout the week. Pickup in demand have firmed up rates for Chana, Oil complex and Guar as Spices too find some strong support at these lower levels.

 

Glencore’s Zinc output cut a bold move: Deutsche Bank

While most market observers see the zinc market already in deficit, the dwindling price says otherwise and Glencore’s move should bring forward the crunch point with a resulting positive impact on the metal price.

Glencore has announced that it will be shutting 500ktpa of zinc capacity – this is a sizeable amount representing around a third of its total capacity or about 3.5% of global demand.

Commodity Online presents a report by Deutsche Bank that analyses the implications of this move.

This another bold move from the agile operator and is a logical response to the simple issue: $1650 for zinc is fundamentally too low and some of the capacity makes no cash at these levels – Solution: Shut it down until the price normalizes.

While most market observers see the zinc market already in deficit, the dwindling price says otherwise and Glencore’s move should bring forward the crunch point with a resulting positive impact on the metal price. We maintain a Hold rec in a volatile market.

The plan to reduce zinc production will hit 5 mines and 3 countries. In Australia, George Fisher, Lady Loretta (245ktpa out) and McArthur River (135ktpa out). In Peru, 80ktpa from the Iscaycruz operation. In Kazakhstan, Kazzinc will wind down by 40ktpa. These reductions will impact around 1400 employees. It is clear that the company will be keeping the zinc in the ground until the zinc price corrects and consequently we expect the mines to ramp back up in the future.

Since the cut in interest rates in the GFC, commodities have seen increased involvement from financial players, leading to much price distortion. This year and next, market commentators generally calculate the zinc is in deficit (280kt by DB estimations) – despite this, the zinc price has retreated.

Net positions of the money managers has collapsed due to the build in short positions and most recently an entity has dumped zinc onto the very visible and monitored London Metal Exchange. Because we forecast that zinc will rally significantly into 2016, the production cuts have a negative impact on our EPS forecast– ironically, the cuts by Glencore are likely to bring forward the price rise.

Our GBp190ps TP is based on DCF-derived NPV based on a WACC of 8.6% (CoD 4%, Gearing target 20%, Tax rate 20% and RFR 3%). Downside risks include lower commodity prices than expected or stronger operating currencies (particularly the AUD). Its ability to manage its debt position will also be a significant risk to valuation and price. Upside risks are mostly related to coal, nickel and zinc prices.

 

MCX Crude Oil may trade sideways

Crude oil can move in the range of 3150-3360 in MCX.Crude oil may trade sideways with upside bias.

Crude oil may trade sideways with upside bias. Though, decline in rig count and a drop in US output may give further upside. Crude oil can move in the range of 3150-3360 in MCX, according to SMC Global.

Oil futures rose key level of above $50 a barrel for the first time since July, as the dollar weakened and traders focused on the expectations of shrinking U.S. production. Concerns about Russia’s military operations in Syria also supported prices.

Russia launched a series of strikes against Syria overnight, escalating its assault on opponents of Bashar al- Assad’s regime.

Oil prices can be particularly responsive to unrest or violence in the Middle East, one of the world’s biggest oil-producing regions. Oil Prices were up more than 8% last week, as expectations of falling production and growing global demand have boosted the market.

The plunge in oil prices in the past year prompted energy producers to cut spending on new drilling, and investors are closely watching how quickly U.S. production will decline in response. Natural gas prices to remain on lower path on decline in demand. Meanwhile weather conditions and EIA inventory position in US to give further direction to the oil prices.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – October 11, 2015

EURUSD moved sideways in a narrow range between 1.1087 and 1.1460. The price action in the range is likely consolidation of the downtrend from 1.1713. Another fall could be expected after consolidation and next target would be at 1.0600 area. Key resistance is at 1.1713, only break above this level could trigger anther rise towards 1.2500.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – October 11, 2015

GBPUSD is in downtrend from 1.5929, the rise from 1.5107 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Further decline could be expected over the next several weeks, and next target would be at 1.4700 area. Resistance levels are at 1.5400 and 1.5660, only break above these levels could trigger another rise towards 1.6500.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – October 11, 2015

AUDUSD failed to break below 0.6907 support and continued its sideways movement in a range between 0.6907 and 0.7439. As long as 0.7439 resistance holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high), one more fall towards 0.6500 is still possible after consolidation. Key resistance is at 0.7650, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – October 11, 2015

USDJPY is forming a sideways consolidation in a narrow range between 118.58 and 121.62. Further rise could be expected after consolidation, and next target would be at 125.00 area. Key support is at 116.13, only a break below this level could bring price to 110.00 area.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – October 11, 2015

USDCAD broke below 1.3011 support, indicating that consolidation for the long term uptrend from 0.9406 (Jul 26, 2011 low) is underway. Further decline could be expected after correction, and the target would be at 1.2500 area. Resistance levels are at 1.3200 and 1.3456, only break above these levels could trigger another rise to 1.4000 zone.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – September 27, 2015

EURUSD is facing 1.1087 support, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the downtrend from 1.1713, then next target would be at 1.0600 area. Resistance levels are at 1.1460 and 1.1713, only break above these levels could trigger anther rise towards 1.2500.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – September 27, 2015

GBPUSD broke below 1.5165 support, indicating that the downtrend from 1.5929 has resumed. Further decline could be expected over the next several weeks, and next target would be at 1.4700 area. Resistance levels are at 1.5400 and 1.5660, only break above these levels could trigger another rise towards 1.6500.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – September 27, 2015

AUDUSD remains in downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high), the rise from 0.6907 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Range trading between 0.6907 and 0.7439 could be seen over the next several weeks. Key resistance is at 0.7439, as long as this level holds, the downtrend could be expected to resume, and another fall towards 0.6500 is still possible.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – September 27, 2015

USDJPY moved sideways in a narrow range between 118.58 and 121.62. The price action in the range is likely consolidation of the uptrend from 116.13. Further rise to 125.00 area could be expected, and the target would be at 125.00 area. Key support is at 116.13, only a break below this level could bring price to 110.00 area.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – September 27, 2015

USDCAD broke above 1.3353 resistance, indicating that the uptrend from 1.1919 has resumed. Further rise could be expected over the next several weeks, and next target would be at 1.4000 area. Key support is now at 1.3011, only break below this level could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of September 21, 2015, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index went back and forth during the course of the week, testing the 94 level for support. By doing so, the market looks as if it is essentially still doing the same thing that it has for some time, simply grinding sideways overall. The fact that we managed to keep support near the 94 handle even as the Federal Reserve refused to raise interest rates is a very bullish sign for the longer term. With this, we feel that the market will bounce from here, but you will probably be forced to use shorter-term charts.

 

Gold forecast for the week of September 21, 2015, Technical Analysis

Gold markets shot higher during the course of the week, slamming into the $1140 level. With that being the case, the market we look at pullbacks as potential buying opportunities, as the $1160 level above should now be the target, as it was previously supportive, and now should be resistance. If we can break above there, this market could go much higher, perhaps heading to the $1250 level. We don’t have any interest in selling at the moment, because the latest low was higher than the one before it.

 

Silver forecast for the week of September 21, 2015, Technical Analysis

Silver markets pulled back during the course of the week, but found enough support just above the $14.00 level to shoot higher and break above the $15.00 handle, which of course is a significant round number. With that being the case, the market looks as if it is ready to continue going higher, but longer-term traders will have to be very patient because of all of the bearish pressure at the $16.00 handle. With this information, we believe that short-term trading is about the only thing that you can do at the moment.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of September 21, 2015, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but as you can see struggled at the $48 level. With that being the case, the market looks as if it is struggling above with the formation of a shooting star. With that, the market should then head to the $40 level, and with that we feel that the market will continue to have bearish pressure. However, it is difficult to use the longer-term charts to get involved, simply because there is not enough room for longer-term traders to be involved, so with this we are standing on the sidelines as far as longer-term trades are concerned. However, if we managed to break above the $50 level, we could be buyers and hanging on for longer-term moves. In the meantime, we think it’s best to leave this to the realm of short-term trading.

Brent

Looking at the Brent market, you can see that we try to get above the $50 level, but struggled and could not continue to go higher. With this, the market looks as if it is going to continue to grind a little bit lower, but ultimately there is far too little room for the longer-term markets to be easily traded. With that being the case, we think that the $44 level below is supportive, and as a result we are on the sidelines as far as longer-term trades are concerned.

Rallies at this point in time should be selling opportunities, as we have seen so much bearish pressure over the longer term. Ultimately though, we think that the market could be trying to find some type of support. Nonetheless, we feel that this is going to be an intense type of volatility that most traders will shun. We think that the Brent market will probably underperform the light sweet crude market, and with this a bit of caution will be needed to be adhered to in order to trade this market safely. Ultimately, short-term trades are the only thing that you’ll one likely have an opportunity with.

 

Natural Gas forecast for the week of September 21, 2015, Technical Analysis  

Natural gas markets initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found the $2.80 level far too resistive to continue going higher. With this, we turned back around and fell significantly to the $2.61 level. With this, it is only a matter of time before we break down and continue selling off towards the $2.50 level. As far as buying is concerned, we have no interest in doing so because we feel the market will break down to lower levels given enough time. The downtrend has been strong for ages now, and with that there’s no point in fighting it.

 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – September 21, 2015 Forecast

December Comex High Grade Copper futures are trading higher, shortly before the cash market opening. There was an early session sell-off to 2.3625, which confirmed the downtrend, however, buyers stopped the move slightly above a key 50% level, triggering a strong short-covering rally.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down late last week when sellers took out the last swing bottom at 2.3885.

The main range is 2.6605 to 2.2025. Its retracement zone is 2.4315 to 2.4855. This zone stopped the market last week, triggering the start of a steep break on Friday. This zone is still resistance today.

The short-term range is 2.2025 to 2.4930. Its retracement zone at 2.3475 to 2.3135 is the primary downside target.The market is currently testing a downtrending angle at 2.4130 and an uptrending angle at 2.3925. Trader reaction to these two angles will likely determine the direction of the market today.

A sustained move over 2.4130 will signal the presence of buyers. Although the primary upside target is 2.4315 to 2.4855, a number of angles inside this zone could create traffic. These angles are 2.4350, 2.4730 and 2.4830.

Look for sellers to show up inside 2.4315 to 2.4855. They are going to try to form a secondary lower top. If they fail to stop a rally then this will be a sign that buyers may have regained control.

A sustained move under the angle at 2.3925 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is a long-term downtrending angle at 2.3705. A failure to hold this angle could create enough downside momentum to challenge the short-term retracement zone at 2.3475 to 2.3135. This is followed by an uptrending angle at 2.2975.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2.3925 and 2.4130 today. This should tell us whether the bulls or the bears are in control today.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of September 21, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair fell during the course of the week as the 0.74 level above continues to be a resistive. With that being the case, we feel that the market should continue to find quite a bit of volatility. However, the 0.7250 level below is support, and as a result we are simply going to stand on the sidelines as far as longer-term trades are concerned. We have no interest whatsoever in risking money in a market that looks so confused at the moment. With this, we will simply monitor.

 

USD/CAD forecast for the week of September 21, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course the week but found enough support near the 1.30 level to turn things back around and form a nice-looking hammer. Will we find interesting about this market is that the Federal Reserve has stayed on the sidelines as far as interest-rate hikes are concerned, and with that it makes sense that the US dollar would fall. However, we turned around completely and formed a massive hammer at what should have been support. With that, we believe that this market is going to continue the uptrend, and with that we are bullish.

At this point in time, we do not have a scenario in which we sell this pair until we get well below the 1.28 handle, something that does not seem very likely. With that, we are looking for impulsive candles to the upside as well as a break above the top of the hammer in order to take advantage of what seems to be a well-established trend. At that point in time, we would assume that the market would test the 1.3350 level, and then possibly the 1.35 level after that.

On top of everything else, we think that the support runs from the 1.30 level all the way to the 1.28 level as it appears to be more of a zone than a support level. In fact, when we reached towards the highs at the 1.30 level, we had seen resistance all the way from the 1.28 level. We should now see that entire process completely reverse. The fact that we broke above that area was of course a very bullish sign, as the area had offered so much in the way of resistance that breaking out was indeed a major sign of strength. Keep in mind that the 1.30 level offered resistance several times during the financial crisis, so if we could not break above there during that chaos, the fact that we finally did really tells us something about the strength of this move higher, and the potential longevity. We are bullish.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of September 21, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair went back and forth during the course of the week, as we continue to meander around the 120 handle. Because of this, we feel the market is still going to go sideways in the short-term, and the fact that the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates during the week of course doesn’t help the situation either. With this, we are simply sitting on the sidelines of this market but do recognize that eventually we believe the buyers will take over and send this pair to the 125 handle.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of September 21, 2015, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the week, but found enough resistance above the 0.72 level to turn things back around slightly. With this, the market looks as if it will continue to struggle to go to the upside, but eventually we believe that the sellers will take control. However, this is a market that still has a massive amount of resistance and selling pressure, so we have no interest whatsoever in buying. Given enough time, we feel that we will head back towards the lows.

 

GBP/USD  Technical Analysis for the week of September 21, 2015

The GBP/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but found the uptrend line that had previously been keeping this market bullish over the course of the summer to be far too resistive to continue going higher. With this, we believe that the market will now drift down to the 1.52 handle. However, it is a fairly tight range for longer-term traders, so we will trade this market off of the shorter-term charts with an eye towards the longer-term support and resistance barriers that we are stuck between.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the week of September 21, 2015

The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, or a fairly neutral candle. The 1.15 level above should continue to be rather resistive though, so it is not until we break out above there that we would consider buying this market from a longer-term perspective. The lows are getting higher though, so we think it will happen given enough time. The meantime though, we are simply sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the opportunity to break out and start going long as the Federal Reserve has failed to raise interest rates.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – September 20, 2015

EURUSD is in downtrend from 1.1713, the rise from 1.1087 could be treated as correction of the downtrend. Further decline is still possible after correction, and next target would be at 1.0600 area. Key resistance is at 1.1713, only break above this level could trigger anther rise towards 1.2500.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – September 20, 2015

GBPUSD remains in downtrend from 1.5929, the rise from 1.5165 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Further decline is possible and next target would be at 1.4700 area. Key resistance is at 1.5929, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 1.6500.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – September 20, 2015

AUDUSD broke above the downward trend line on daily chart, indicating that consolidation for the downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high) is underway. Range trading between 0.6907 and 0.7439 would likely be seen over the next several weeks. As long as 0.7439 resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to resume, and another fall towards 0.6500 is still possible.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – September 20, 2015

USDJPY is in uptrend from 116.13, the fall from 121.62 is likely correction of the uptrend. Further rise could be expected after correction, and next target would be at 125.00 area. Key support is at 116.13, only a break below this level could bring price to 110.00 area.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – September 20, 2015

USDCAD stays in the upward price channel on daily chart, and remains in uptrend from 1.1919, the fall from 1.3353 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. As long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.4000 area. Key support is at 1.2860, only break below this level could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

US Dollar Index forecast for the week of September 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index fell during the course of the week, testing the bottom of the hammer from the previous week, and as a result we are looking for some type of support below in order to start buying again. The 94 level below is supportive, and as a result we would be buyers on supportive candles. Ultimately, the market should continue to find plenty of interest as the US dollar is considered to be one of the more safe currencies to own at the moment due to the strengthening US economic situation.

 

Gold forecast for the week of September 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

The gold markets fell during the course of the week, testing the $1100 level. This is an area that should be supportive, but at this point in time we are not willing to buy this market. We are simply waiting for rallies to sell, or a break down below the recent lows in order to reach towards the $1000 level. We have no interest whatsoever in buying long-term, as we will continue to see volatility in this marketplace over the next several weeks at the very least. Ultimately, short-term charts will have to be used.

 

Silver forecast for the week of September 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

The silver markets initially tried to rally during the course the week, but turned back around to form a shooting star. There is a massive amount of support at the $14 level though, but at this point in time we believe that you cannot buy under any circumstance at this point in time. We believe that there is a massive amount of resistance at the $15 level, and of course the $16 level. We have no interest in going long, as we recognize that the sellers still very much have the upper hand.

 

Crude Oil forecast for the week of September 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market fell during the course of the week, but continues to find support near the $44 level. Because of this, the market will show quite a bit of volatility, and as a result it might be difficult to trade from a longer-term perspective. Even if we drop from here though, there is a massive amount of support near the $40 handle. We believe that if we can break above the $50 level though, this could be the beginning of a trend change. The one thing that we can count on in the short-term will be a lot of volatility, so at this point in time it’s probably best to leave this market alone from a longer-term perspective, unless of course you are looking for an investment which is an entirely different animal altogether. With this, we are going to focus on shorter-term charts in general.

markets fell during the course of the week as well, but found support at roughly $47. With this, the market should continue to be volatile but we think that there is quite a bit of support below so really at this point in time even though the market has been selling off for some time, the truth of the matter is that the market will be a bit too tight to trade from a longer-term perspective, much like the Light Sweet Crude market will be. With this, we will look to shorter-term charts in order to get involved but recognize that in the meantime you will simply have to be quick to take profits. With that being the case, the market should continue to be difficult for longer-term traders unless of course they wanted to some type of investment. Ultimately, if we can break above the $55 level, we should see the trend change given enough time, and perhaps see the market try to reach as high as $60, and then $70 which of course would be a longer-term buy-and-hold type of situation just waiting to happen.

 

Comex High Grade Copper Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – September 14, 2015 Forecast

December Comex High Grade Copper futures finished higher on Friday and in a position to continue the rally which began at 2.2025 on August 24. The market is struggling to overcome a major retracement zone. Trader reaction to this zone should determine the direction of the market today and perhaps over the near-term.

 

Natural Gas forecast for the week of September 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets rose during the course of the week, bouncing off of the lows that we’ve seen be so supportive for quite some time. With this, the market looks as if it is ready to continue going higher, but keep in mind that the buyers simply have not been would hang onto anything for any real length of time. With this, it’s a most impossible to go against the grain when it comes to a longer-term trade in this market. Because of this, we will simply look to the short-term charts in order to place trades.

 

NZD/USD forecast for the week of September 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair tried to rally during the course of the week, but found far too much in the way of resistance above to continue going higher. The result was a shooting star, in the suggests that we are in fact going to have to continue going lower and test the bottom of the hammer from a couple of weeks back. With this, we have no interest in buying, but quite frankly we feel that the market is probably be volatile and have to be traded off of short-term charts.

 

EUR/GBP forecast for the week of September 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair fell initially during the course of the week, but found enough support to turn things back around and form a nice-looking hammer. This hammer of course suggests that the buyers are involved, and as a result we feel that a break above the 0.74 level is coming. If we can break above there, this market should continue to go to the 0.75 handle, and then perhaps much higher than that. With that being the case, we are bullish and not interested in selling at this moment in time.

 

USD/JPY forecast for the week of September 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair broke higher during the course of the week, clearing the 120 handle. With this being the case, if we can break above the top of the range, we feel that the market is going to head to the 125 handle, which means that the buyers should eventually take control. We believe that ultimately this pair does break above the 125 handle and continue to go higher, but at this point in time we have no interest in selling this market as the US dollar continues to strengthen overall.

 

AUD/USD forecast for the week of September 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair bounced during the course of the week, breaking back above the 0.70 level. With that being the case, the market looks as if it could continue to go little bit higher. However, we think there’s more than enough resistance above to start selling again, and we would not hesitate to do so at the first signs of resistance or exhaustion as this market continues to look very bearish overall, regardless of the bullish candle for the previous week as the downtrend has been so ensconced.

 

GBP/USD forecast for the week of September 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair bounced off of the 1.52 level during the course of the weekend then continue to go much higher. The 1.55 level above has been resistive during the week, and as a result we are now looking to see whether or not we are going to test this area and fall, or continue to go higher. The fact that we broke down below the uptrend line on the chart suggests that we should see selling overall, but at this point in time we believe that shorter-term charts such as the daily timeframe will be needed in order to discern whether we are pulling back, or breaking back out to the upside and aiming for the 1.58 handle.

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of September 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair broke higher during the course of the week, as we continue to see volatility. However, the overall attitude of the market does look like it is trying to break out to the upside, and a move above the 1.15 level has us buying the Euro over the US dollar. What is important is that the Federal Reserve has the interest rate announcement and of course statement coming this week, and I could be the catalyst to finally break out above what looks to be an ascending triangle. Ultimately, we think that a move above the 1.15 level and more importantly a weekly close above that level would be a trend change. This is why we think this is one of the most important weeks in this pair as far as this entire year will be concerned.

Trend changes our messy affairs, and as a result we feel that this type of volatility is to be expected. We don’t really have any interest in selling this pair until we get the interest-rate announcement and of course the statement which could tell us that perhaps the Federal Reserve is looking to raise interest rates several times, but right now that’s difficult to believe. Ultimately, it is probably only a matter of time before we see the breakout and continue to go higher. Every time we pullback it should be a buying opportunity and we think that the market will probably try to reach the 1.25 level next. Yes, the 1.20 level will be resistive and psychologically significant, but as far as actual clusters on the chart are concerned, we don’t have any reason to think that the 1.20 level will be of significance.

If we do break out, quite frankly we feel that a lot of careers will be made going long of this market. With that, we believe that the commodity markets may also wake up at that point as well. All things being equal, we are bullish, but very cautious about putting money to work below the red line on this chart.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – September 13, 2015

EURUSD remains in downtrend from 1.1713, the bounce from 1.1087 is likely correction of the downtrend. Another fall could be expected after correction, and next target would be at 1.0600 area. Key resistance is at 1.1713, only break above this level could trigger anther rise towards 1.2500.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – September 13, 2015

GBPUSD is now in downtrend from 1.5929. Further decline could be expected after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 1.4700 area. Resistance is at 1.5500, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 1.6500.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – September 13, 2015

AUDUSD stays below the downward trend line on daily chart, and remains in downtrend from 0.8162. As long as the trend line resistance holds, the bounce from 0.6907 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend, and further decline towards 0.6500 could be expected. Only a clear break above the trend line resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – September 13, 2015

USDJPY remains in uptrend from 116.13, the fall from 121.62 could be treated s correction of the uptrend. Another rise to test 125.85 resistance is possible after correction. Key support is at 116.13, only a break below this level could bring price back to 110.00 area.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – September 13, 2015

USDCAD remains in uptrend from 1.1919, the fall from 1.3353 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Near term support is located at the bottom of the price channel on daily chart. As long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and further rise to 1.4000 area is possible after consolidation. Key support is at 1.2860, only break below this level could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

MCX Gold negative; Support: 26320

Overall Gold is likely to trade with negative bias today.Prices have good support at 26320 and resistance at 26700.

Gold opened steady this morning and trading around 26560 on MCX October contract. Overall it is likely to trade with negative bias today, while it is not expected to make high volatility as US market is closed for the day.

Prices have good support at 26320 and resistance at 26700,

MCX Gold has been trading marginally up by 0.10 per cent to 26559 level on Monday(10.46am).

Bullion had come under pressure on Friday after data showed nonfarm payrolls increased 173,000 last month after an upwardly revised gain of 245,000 in July, and the jobless rate dropped to a 7-1/2-year low.

The US Federal Reserve is still on course to increase the key central bank borrowing rate before the end of the year, and this will dull the precious metal’s appeal, as it offers no interest, or income, to investors.

A crucial US employment report showed the country’s economy added a net 173,000 jobs in August.

The unemployment rate dipped from 5.3pc in July, to 5.1pc in August, bringing it to a seven-and-a-half-year low. Hedge funds and money managers added slightly to their bullish position in COMEX gold contracts in the week ended Sept. 1, as prices reversed losses on signs of Chinese economic weakness, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.

 

MCX Crude Oil negative; Support: 3010

MCX Crude Oil Prices have good support at 3010 and resistance at 3150.

Crude Oil opened lower today and trading near 3060 on MCX September contract, down by 1.6 percent against previous closing price. It is likely to continue with the selling pressure in the rest of the session. Prices have good support at 3010 and resistance at 3150,

Investors are tracking how Chinese stock markets will fare today after being closed for a long holiday weekend.

Oil prices ended mixed last week, with Nymex crude gaining 1.8% while Brent crude ended 0.9% lower. Last week, the U.S. oil rig count fell by 13 units to 662 last week, the first decline in seven weeks, Baker Hughes data showed.

Funds were a little more bullish on Nymex crude with latest CFTC data showing speculative long positions in crude oil futures outnumbered short positions by 220,342 contracts against 215,563 last week.

Demand and rates for tankers have soared in the wake of last summer’s 50-per-cent plunge in crude prices as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries boosted output and China stocked up on cheap oil.

 

Trend remains firm for Indian agri counters on deficient Monsoon

Reducing spread between CBOT soya oil and Malaysian palm oil is constantly improving buying interest in domestic CPO market.

Chana futures posted new highs last week amid steady off take in cash markets and firm trend in Kharif pulses like Tur and Urad. Slower arrival pace in Delhi Lawrence road also supported the trend.

Edible oil and oilseed complex ended firm in response to strength in global markets and steady demand at major centres. Reducing spread between CBOT soya oil and Malaysian palm oil is constantly improving buying interest in domestic CPO market.

Overall trade sentiments were firm in Agri counters in response to forecast for a monsoon deficient September month.

 

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – September 6, 2015

EURUSD is now in downtrend from 1.1713. Further decline could be expected after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 1.0600 area. Resistance levels are at 1.1400 and 1.1713, only break above these levels could trigger anther rise towards 1.2500.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – September 6, 2015

GBPUSD broke below 1.5170 support, indicating that the uptrend from 1.4565 had completed at 1.5929 already. Further decline could be expected over the next several weeks, and next target would be at 1.4700 area. Resistance is at 1.5500, only break above this level could trigger another rise towards 1.6500.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – September 6, 2015

AUDUSD’s downward movement from 0.8162 extended to as low as 0.6906. Further decline could be seen over the next several weeks, and next target would be at 0.6500 area. Resistance is located at the downward trend line on daily chart, only a clear break above this trend line resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – September 6, 2015

USDJPY is now in uptrend from 116.13, the fall from 121.62 is likely correction of the uptrend. As long as 116.13 support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and further rise to test 125.85 resistance is possible.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – September 6, 2015

USDCAD stays in a upward price channel on daily chart, and remains in uptrend from 1.1919, the fall from 1.3353 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Near term support is at the bottom of the channel. As long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.4000 area. Key support is at 1.2860, only break below this level could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

India can bypass Pakistan for Gas pipeline project with Iran: ASSOCHAM

India is increasingly looking abroad for natural gas, which it does not import from Iran. India needs to resurrect Iranian oil and gas projects that were stalled due to international sanctions on Iran.

India must fully exploit the economic opportunities unfolding from lifting of western sanctions on Iran , bypassing Pakistan for import of natural gas as also enhancing merchandise trade through a Preferential Trade Agreement(PTA) with the key West Asian strategic nation, an ASSOCHAM study has said.

Lifting of western sanctions on Iran throws a great opportunity for India to transport natural gas Iran to Porbandar port in Gujarat, bypassing Pakistan – the main sticking point for the other multilateral projects of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) and Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI), an ASSOCHAM has said.

“Lifting of Western sanctions now holds the promise of starting an undersea pipeline project that would bring Iranian gas to India via the Arabian Sea, bypassing Pakistan. With the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline still stuck and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipelines yet to take off, the South Asia Gas Enterprises Pvt Ltd (SAGE) has proposed under sea pipeline bypassing Pakistan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) to transport up to 1.1 billion standard cubic feet per day of gas from Chabahar in Iran and Ra’s al Jifan in Oman to Porbandar in Gujarat state with a spur line to Mumbai later. The 1,200-1,300 km pipeline, set to cost around $4.5 billion,” the ASSOCHAM Paper on India’s Trade with Iran, pointed out.

India is increasingly looking abroad for natural gas, which it does not import from Iran. India needs to resurrect Iranian oil and gas projects that were stalled due to international sanctions on Iran. A consortium of Indian public sector companies – ONGC Videsh, Oil India and India Oil Corporation – had discovered gas in the Farzad-B block in Iran in 2008 and subsequently prepared a field development plan to recover about 12.8 trillion cubic feet of gas. The plan had to be abandoned following the sanctions on Iran. India has already spent $90 million on exploration.

“Given the kind of serious political problems, the proposed pipeline projects involving Pakistan, it is feared, may remain the pipe dream. All other viable alternatives to enhance India’s energy security must be explored”, ASSOCHAM Secretary General Mr D S Rawat said.

The SAGE pipeline, also called Middle East to India Deepwater Pipeline (MEIDP), project, would start from Chabahar on the southern coast of Iran and Ras Al-Jafan on the Oman coast. The pipeline, after traversing deep in the Arabian Sea, would bring gas to Porbandar in south Gujarat.

The study also suggested signing of Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) with Iran since the similar Iranian arrangement with Pakistan has become almost dead.

Initially, the PTA gave a significant boost to Pakistan’s exports to Iran and increased bilateral trade as well. Pak-Iran trade witnessed considerable progress during the first three years of the post PTA period i.e. from 2006-07 to 2008-09 in which bilateral trade increased from $573.76 million to an unprecedented level of $1321.32 million. Pakistan’s exports to Iran increased from $167.55 million to $399.62 million, while imports from Iran also jumped from $405.76 to $921.7 during the same period.

However, Pak-Iran trade started declining gradually from the level of $1321.3 million in 2008-09 to a mere $218 million in 2013-14. Pakistan’s exports to Iran in 2013-14 declined to $53 million from U.S. $ 97.7 million in 2012-13.

 

Indian agri markets to remain volatile

Trend is likely to remain volatile in the coming week also as traders expect the trading activities that had remained low to gradually start rising.

Markets recovered strongly for Agri markets as demand starts rising in the mandis amidst short covering ahead of the weekend holidays.

Firm Dollar, rising Crude oil prices and firmness in International markets were also responsible for some recovery in Agri prices as traders anticipate export and Festive season domestic demand could support prices in coming weeks.

Trend is likely to remain volatile in the coming week also as traders expect the trading activities that had remained low to gradually start rising.

Bullish trend persisted for Chana as rise in Festive season demand amidst falling stocks and rising costs of imports from a weak Rupee kept trend firm.

Low trading activities in Gujarat due to the on going political tensions in the state affected the market sentiments for Jeera as moderate cor-rections were noted in the mandis.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – August 30, 2015

EURUSD broke above 1.1467 resistance, and reached as high as 1.1713. The subsequent fall from 1.1713 indicate that the uptrend from 1.0808 had completed. Further decline to test 1.0462 support could be expected over the next several weeks, a breakdown below this level will confirm that the long term downtrend from 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high) has resumed, then next target would be at 0.9000 area. Resistance is at 1.1713, only break above this level could trigger anther rise towards 1.2500.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – August 30, 2015

GBPUSD failed to break above 1.5929 resistance, and stayed in the trading range between 1.5170 and 1.5929. Support is at 1.5170, as long as this level holds, the price action from 1.5814 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.4565, and one more rise towards 1.6500 is still possible after consolidation. On the downside, a breakdown below 1.5170 support will indicate that the uptrend had completed at 1.5929 already, then deeper decline to test 1.4565 support could be seen.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – August 30, 2015

AUDUSD’s downward movement from 0.8162 extended to as low as 0.7037. Near term resistance is located at the downward trend line on daily chart. As long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 0.6500 area. Key resistance is at 0.7439, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – August 30, 2015

USDJPY remains in long term uptrend from 75.57 (Oct 31, 2011 low), the fall from 125.85 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Range trading between 116.13 and 125.85 would likely be seen over the next several weeks. Key support is at 116.13, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and further rise towards 140.00 is still possible. Resistance is at 125.85, a break of this level could signal resumption of the uptrend.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – August 30, 2015

USDCAD’s upward movement from 1.1919 extended to as high as 1.3353. Near term support is at the bottom of the price channel on daily chart. As long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.4000 area. Key support is at 1.2860, only break below this level could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

US Dollar Index review for August 23, 2015

The US Dollar Index fell during the course of the week, testing the 95 handle. However, there is significant support all the way down to the 94 level, and on top of that there is a bit of an uptrend line that we are still following. With this, we feel that the markets will ultimately find buyers but have not shown any proclivity to bounce quite yet. We need to see perhaps a hammer or some type of impulsive green candle in order to start taking advantage of what should be value.

 

Gold review for August 23, 2015

Gold markets rallied during the course of the week, slamming into the $1160 level. However, this signifies a significant amount of resistance just above, so we are a bit hesitant to start going long. We believe that more than likely we’re going to get a nice selling opportunity, and the fact that Friday formed a shooting star like candle certainly has us wondering about how long we can go higher. We believe the market will eventually offer a resistive candle that we can start selling. We see resistance all the way to the $1225 level.

 

Silver review for August 23, 2015

Silver markets went back and forth during the course of the week, but eventually ended up with a neutral candle. Because of this, we have no interest in placing longer-term trades, although we do recognize that perhaps silver is trying to form a little bit of a base below. If that’s the case, the one trade you could probably do is buy physical silver, and perhaps put it in your retirement account. Beyond that, there isn’t much for the longer-term trader to do in this particular marketplace as the volatility will continue.

 

Natural Gas review for August 23, 2015

The natural gas markets gapped lower at the open on Monday, and then continued to fall significantly during the course of the week. We believe that the market is going to try to test the lows again, which is somewhere near the $2.60 level, so short-term we should see this market fall. However, we do not know whether or not this market is going to be able to break down quite yet, so a bounce is very likely. This is not really a long-term market to be involved in oh, we believe that short-term traders will continue to push this thing around.

 

Crude Oil weekly review for August 23, 2015

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market fell significantly during the course of the week, testing the $40 level. This is a massive support level based upon the fact that it is a large, round, psychologically significant number, and of course has caused a bit of a reaction from time to time in the market in the past. With this, we think that a bounce could be coming, but quite frankly we think that you need to sell rallies more than anything else. On the other hand, if you break down below the $40 level, you could see the players come back into this market and start selling again. Ultimately though, this is a freefall that has all the hallmarks of a market that is over exuberant in one particular direction. With that, a relief rally makes a lot of sense.

markets look horrible as well, as the shooting star from last week at the $50 level suggests that the market is going to continue to go even lower. We closed at the very lows, just above the $45 handle. With that, we feel that selling is it only thing you can do, but you need to do in underneath the $45 handle. On the other hand, if we find some type of rally that shows a resistive candle, we are willing to sell as well. With no interest in buying this market yet, just simply because we have not seen a long-term buy-and-hold type of signal. We are going to need to see something like that, but do not anticipate seeing anytime soon.

Ultimately, the $42.50 level will probably be targeted going forward, and as a result we would aim for that on the breakout or the aforementioned failure after a rally. We believe that the $50 level will of course offer quite a bit of resistance, and as a result we would look for selling opportunities near that area with even more interest than most other areas. Pay attention to the US dollar, it has a massive effect on this market as well.

 

NZDUSD weekly review for August 23, 2015

The NZD/USD pair rose during the course of the week, using the 0.65 level as support. The 0.6750 level above is resistance, and as a result we are not ready to start buying at this point. In fact, we would prefer to see this market go well above the 0.70 level in order to start buying. In the meantime, we are simply standing on the sidelines as we feel longer-term traders do not have enough room to move in this market at the moment. Now that we are at the end of summer though, liquidity should start to pick up and we should get a little bit more clarity.

 

EUR/JPY weekly review for August 23, 2015

EUR/JPY pair initially tried to fall during the course of the week, but as you can see struggled and turned back around to let the buyers have their way with this market. The 140 level above is resistance, and probably the target. We believe that this market is probably more suited towards short-term traders and anything else though, so having said that we are very interested in buying this pair, but not from a longer-term perspective. If we pullback from here, we would be convinced to buy at lower levels on signs of support.

EUR/GBP weekly review for August 23, 2015

The EUR/GBP pair initially fell during the course of the week, but found enough support at the 0.70 level to turn things back around and form a very positive looking candle. This candle looks as if it is a market that’s ready to go higher, perhaps heading to the 0.74 level which of course is the next major resistance barrier. Because of this, we are bullish in the short-term, but do believe that eventually the sellers will reenter this market. With this, we feel that this pair is probably more suited for short-term trading.

 

USDCAD weekly review for August 23, 2015

The USD/CAD pair went back and forth during the week, and started to test the 1.30 level. This of course is a large, round, psychologically significant level, and will attract a lot of attention. This pair is highly sensitive to the price of oil, and with the selling pressure seen in those markets, it makes sense we go higher. We believe that the 1.32 barrier will be broken, as the longer-term strength should continue to make itself known again and again as the commodity markets remain very soft, with oil being no different.

USDJPY weekly review for August 23, 2015

The USD/JPY pair fell hard during the course of the week, slamming into the 122 handle. This is the area that the uptrend line crosses, and as a result we believe that sooner or later the buyers are going to step back into this marketplace. Even if we broke down below the uptrend line though, we think that the red line on the chart, the 120 handle, should be massively supportive as well. Because of this, we are buyers on supportive candles and are simply looking for the opportunity to go long and reach towards the 125 handle yet again.

AUDUSD weekly review for August 23, 2015

The AUD/USD pair fell slightly during the course of the week, but essentially went nowhere. We recognize that this market is negative overall, but it looks like it’s consolidating in this general vicinity. We believe that it’s only a matter time before the sellers step back into this marketplace though, so we are actually going to look at rallies as potential value in the US dollar. Obviously, if we can break down below the recent low, we would also be sellers as the market should then head to the 0.70 level and possibly even lower than that given enough time.

GBPUSD weekly review for August 23, 2015

The GBP/USD pair initially fell during the course the week but found enough support below to turn things back around and form a hammer. With that being the case, the hammer looks as if it is telling us that the markets going to try to reach towards the 1.58 level, and then ultimately the 1.60 level. We have no interest whatsoever in selling this pair, and believe that any pullback and we get at this point in time will end up being a buying opportunity given enough time.

 

EURUSD weekly review for August 23, 2015

The EUR/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week but found enough support at the 1.10 level to turn things back around and form an extremely positive candle. With this, we are testing the 1.14 handle. This is the beginning of major resistance that could change the entire trend of this currency pair. If we can break above the 1.15 level, we not only are buyers at that point in time, but we are essentially in a “buy-and-hold” type of situation in our opinion.

This is very interesting timing though, because quite frankly we are at the very end of the summertime, which of course is typically low liquidity as a lot of the large players in the marketplace are simply out in the vacation mode instead of placing a lot of money in the markets. Ultimately though, the next couple of weeks will be very interesting and as a result it will be interesting to see whether or not we can break out to the upside. If we do, it’s only a matter of time before a lot of traders will look around and notice that the market is probably going to continue to go much higher.

We see a significant amount of resistance near the 1.25 level after that, and that would be our target over the next several weeks if not months. On the other hand though, if we get some type of resistive candle in this area, we could very easily see this market heading back towards the 1.10 level. The fact that we are at the end of the summer break suggests that perhaps the liquidity in the marketplace is a quite strong enough to make this something to be concerned about quite yet. However, we are getting very close to when large traders get involved in the market, and that of course would be more of a permanent type of move. The only thing that you can count on at this point in time is going to be volatility now.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – August 23, 2015

EURUSD is facing 1.1467 resistance, a break of this level will confirm that the uptrend from 1.0462 has resumed, then next target would be at 1.2500 area. Near term support is at 1.1100, only break below this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation for the uptrend is needed, then another fall to 1.0800 area could be seen.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – August 23, 2015

GBPUSD remains in uptrend from 1.4565, the price action from 1.5814 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Sideways movement in a range between 1.5170 and 1.5929 could be expected to continue over the next several weeks. Resistance is at 1.5929, a break of this level will indicate that the uptrend has resumed, then next target would be at 1.6500 area. Only break below 1.5170 support could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – August 23, 2015

AUDUSD stays in the downward price channel on daily chart, and remains in downtrend from 0.8162. As long as the channel resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and further decline to 0.6800 area is possible. However, a clear break above the channel resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – August 23, 2015

USDJPY failed to break above 125.85 resistance, indicating that lengthier consolidation for the uptrend from 115.56 is needed. Range trading between 120.41 and 125.85 would likely be seen over the next several weeks. Support is at 120.41, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and another rise towards 130.00 is possible after consolidation.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – August 23, 2015

USDCAD moved sideways in a narrow range between 1.2860 and 1.3213. Support is at 1.2860, as long as this level holds, the sideways movement could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.1919, and further rise to 1.4000 area could be expected after consolidation. Only break below 1.2860 support could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

Large footprint of Chinese demand is risk for Commodity markets

Oil markets took little encouragement from announcements of planned Saudi cuts later this year, which will be commensurate with domestic demand, and a renewed draw on US oil inventories.

The large footprint of Chinese demand may be a risk for some commodity markets as growth decelerates further to 6.7% in 2016 from the torrid growth rates of the 2000s,

Energy:

Oil markets took little encouragement from announcements of planned Saudi cuts later this year, which will be commensurate with domestic demand, and a renewed draw on US oil inventories. Although we expect US tight oil production to fall over the rest of the year, drilling activity has showed signs of an incipient but shallow rebuilding trend in the last month. If continued this would result in the resumption of month-on-month US supply growth starting in 2016, and no sizeable decline on an annual average basis.

Precious Metals:

Comments from the Fed reinforced the view that an interest rate hike in September is very likely, further contributing to the negative sentiment on gold. Platinum has started to outperform gold, with the third largest producer Lonmin, announcing supply cuts due to poor profitability. Given the ample liquidity from above-ground stocks in platinum, we think further cuts are required to sustain this outperformance.

Industrial Metals:

The strong USD / weak producer currency environment continues to weigh on the industrial metal complex, but we are starting to see some signs of a producer response. However, in most markets we have not yet reached a critical mass of closures. Although copper supply disruptions have increased over the past week, the run rate is on simply on track to meet our forecasts.

 

Better rainfall pressurizes Indian agri futures

Spices showed slight dips but looks to find upside momentum in the coming weeks while oil complex may show some corrections on weakness in International markets and the bearish domestic scenario.
Markets corrected after the continuous upside movement the entire week. Prospects of improved rains during the weekend further pressurized the prices.

Guar failed to hold on to the higher levels on weakness in Crude Oil prices and improved sowing prospects; Chana traded sideways but seems to find strong support here.

Spices showed slight dips but looks to find upside momentum in the coming weeks while oil complex may show some corrections on weakness in International markets and the bearish domestic scenario.

Jeera firmed up last week even as rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan pressurized the market sentiments at the higher levels to some extent.

After the initial fall in prices, Turmeric staged a moderate recovery by end of the week as some rise in demand supported the prices. Further downtrend may be limited as demand is expected to pick up further in coming weeks.

 

MCX Gold short term bearish; Support: 24700

MCX Gold October contract has short term support at 24700 level and resistance at 25200. Intraday support is at 24880 with resistance at 25100.

Gold is likely to continue its bear run for short term in India’s MCX while intraday trade is likely to be sideways. MCX Gold October contract has short term support at 24700 level and resistance at 25200,

intraday support is at 24880 with resistance at 25100. MCX Gold October contract has been trading down by -0.14 per cent to 24974 level on Monday(10:56am).

Gold edged lower on Monday, trading near a 5-1/2- year low, as expectations for a near-term hike in U.S. interest rates spurred selling even after bullion fell the most since 2013 in July.

Gold’s rout deepened last month as the U.S. dollar strengthened after upbeat U.S. economic data and comments by the Federal Reserve signalled the U.S. central bank is on course to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years.

Bullion lost almost 7 percent in July, its deepest monthly fall since June 2013. It fell for a sixth straight week last week, its longest retreat since 1999.

Hedge funds and money managers kept their first bearish stance in COMEX gold in at least a decade during the week ended July 28, suggesting the recent mass exodus from bullion was more than a knee-jerk reaction.

Amid waning interest in bullion, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust , the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped again, to 21.63 million ounces on Friday, the lowest since September 2008.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – August 2, 2015

EURUSD moved sideways in a trading range between 1.0808 and 1.1467. As long as 1.0808 support holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.0462, another rise towards 1.2500 could be expected after consolidation. On the downside, a breakdown below 1.0808 support will indicate that the long term downtrend from 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high) has resumed, then the following downward movement could bring price to 1.0000 area.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – August 2, 2015

GBPUSD remains in uptrend from 1.4565, the price action from 1.5814 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Support is at 1.5170, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and next target would be at 1.6500 area. Only break below 1.5170 support could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – August 2, 2015

AUDUSD continued its downward movement from 0.8162, and the fall extended to as low as 0.7233. Further decline could be expected and next target would be at 0.6800 area. Resistance is at 0.7400, as long as this level holds, the downtrend will continue.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – August 2, 2015

USDJPY remains in uptrend from 115.56, the fall from 125.85 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Support is located at the bottom of the price channel on daily chart. As long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 130.00 area. Only a clear break below the channel support could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – August 2, 2015

USDCAD remains in uptrend from 1.1919. Further rise could be expected after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 1.4000 area. Support is now at 1.2850, as long as this level holds, the uptrend will continue.

Cotton: Cotlook sees lower world stocks by the end of 2015/16

The world production forecast is reduced by a net figure of 38,000 tonnes, a sharp reduction in China having been largely offset by higher figures for Brazil and some African Franc Zone producing countries.

Cotton Outlook’s latest forecast of world cotton production and consumption in the 2015/16 season suggest a reduction of nearly 600,000 tonnes in world stocks, the first such fall for several seasons.

However, most of the drawdown is forecast to take place in China, whereas supplies in the rest of the world are predicted to have altered only modestly by the end of the next campaign.

The world production forecast is reduced by a net figure of 38,000 tonnes, a sharp reduction in China having been largely offset by higher figures for Brazil and some African Franc Zone producing countries. Consumption is modestly lower, owing to a downward adjustment for the United States.

In its forecast released on June Cotlook had lowered world production number for 2014/15 by 63,000 tonnes. Increases in the figures for Australia and Uzbekistan have been more than offset by reductions for China and smaller markets,

 

Indian agri counters to take cues from likely pick up in demand

With prices having fallen a lot for most Agri counters, the demand is expected to pick up on the domestic and export front once skies clear up.

The trend in the Indian futures market this week will be determined by the Monsoon activities in North-West and Central India as sowing process continues.

With prices having fallen a lot for most Agri counters, the demand is expected to pick up on the domestic and export front once skies clear up.

Agri markets recovered by end of the day on Friday as short covering takes place before the weekend holidays after the continuous slide in prices this week, sources said.

Extreme high volatility was observed for Chana last week as high speculative activity got noted in the Futures market. Prices found support from lower production, low stocks and improved demand.

Bearish trend persisted for Jeera as lack of demand amidst increasing arrivals in the International markets kept exports on the lower side and prevented any recovery in prices.

Rates crashed for Guar last week as low export demand and rising sowing area amidst good rains in Rajasthan kept trend down for the counter.

 

India MCX July 27, 2015

The slump in gold that took prices to a five-year low may have further to run after hedge funds swung into a net-short position for the first time. Gold can move in range of 24600-25000 in MCX.

Bullion counter may open on positive path due to short covering seen in international markets. Gold can move in range of 24600-25000 and Silver can move in range of 33200-34200 in MCX,

MCX Gold August contract has been moving up by 0.56 per cent to 24870 level on Monday(11.35am).

The slump in gold that took prices to a five-year low may have further to run after hedge funds swung into a net-short position for the first time.

The shift in New York futures and options came as speculators increased their bearish wagers to the highest since the U.S. government data begins in 2006. Long holdings declined for a fourth week.

Prices are plunging amid mounting speculation that U.S. interest rates will climb this year, curbing the appeal of bullion because it doesn’t pay interest like competing assets. At the same time, China bought less of the metal than analysts were expecting, and the dollar is strengthening.

Global assets in exchange-traded funds backed by gold dropped 1.1 percent last week, as of Thursday, to 1,554.4 metric tons. That was set for the biggest weekly decline since March, and the holdings are the smallest since 2009.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – July 26, 2015

After touching 1.0819 support, EURUSD rebounded from 1.0808, indicating that the pair remains in uptrend from 1.0462, and the price action in the trading range between 1.0819 and 1.1467 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Another rise to test 1.1467 resistance could be expected next week, a break of this level will signal resumption of the uptrend, then next target would be at 1.2500 area. On the downside, a clear break below 1.0819 support will indicate that the long term downtrend from 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high) has resumed, then the following downward movement could bring price to 1.0000 area.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – July 26, 2015

GBPUSD continued its sideways movement in a range between 1.5170 and 1.5929. Key support is at 1.5170, as long as this level holds, the the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.4565, and further rise to 1.6500 area is still possible. Only break below 1.5170 support could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – July 26, 2015

AUDUSD’s downward movement from 0.8162 extended to as low as 0.7259. Further decline is still possible, and next target would be at 0.7000 area. Near term resistance is at 0.7500, only break above this level could bring price back to 0.7900 zone.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – July 26, 2015

USDJPY stays in the upward price channel on daily chart, and remains in the long term uptrend from 75.57 (Oct 31, 2011), and the fall from 125.85 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Further rise to test 125.85 resistance would likely be seen next week, a break of this level will signal resumption of the uptrend, then next target would be at 130.00 area.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – July 26, 2015

USDCAD’s upward movement from 1.1919 extended to as high as 1.3102. Further rise could be expected, and next target would be at 1.4000 area. Near term support is at 1.2900, as long as this level holds, the uptrend will continue.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – July 19, 2015

EURUSD is facing 1.0819 support, a breakdown below this level will indicate that the long term downtrend from 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high) has resumed, then the following downward movement could bring price to 1.0000 area. On the other side, as long as 1.0819 support holds, the sideways movement between 1.0819 and 1.1467 could be expected to continue.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – July 19, 2015

GBPUSD stays in a trading range between 1.5170 and 1.5929. As long as 1.5170 support holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.4565, and further rise to 1.6500 area is still possible. Only break below 1.5170 support could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – July 19, 2015

AUDUSD remains in downtrend from 0.8162, and the fall extended to as low as 0.7349. Near term resistance is at 0.7500, as long as this level holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 0.7000 area. Key resistance is at 0.7600, only break above this level could bring price back to 0.8000 zone.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – July 19, 2015

USDJPY failed to break below the bottom of the upward price channel on daily chart, indicating that the pair remains in long term uptrend from 75.57 (Oct 31, 2011), and the fall from 125.85 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Another rise towards 130.00 could be expected after consolidation, and a break of 125.85 resistance could signal resumption of the uptrend.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – July 19, 2015

USDCAD broke above 1.2835 resistance, indicating that the long term uptrend from 0.9632 (Sept 14, 2012 low) has resumed. Further rise could be expected, and next target would be at 1.4000 area. Support levels are at 1.2800 and 1.2650, as long as these levels hold, the uptrend will continue.

Indian Rupee regains bite as risk appetite returns

The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday after the recent FOMC meeting minutes showed that the US policy makers remained cautious about the world’s largest economy’s outlook which dampened the expectation of a rate hike sooner than later in 2015 thereby denting the demand for the greenback.

Major slump in the Chinese market that weakened the Indian rupee later became steady owing to persistent dollar demand from stateowned banks and importers which acted as a positive factor for the currency. The currency made an intraday high of 63.28 and closed at 63.31 on Thursday. For the month of July 2015, FII inflows in equities totalled at Rs. 3418.82 crores ($538.25 million) as on 9th July, 2015. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 42499.45 crores ($6887.67 million) as on 9th July, 2015.

From the intra-day perspective, Rupee is likely to depreciate as markets will remain cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairwoman’s speech due today that will exert pressure on the currency.

Major slump in the Chinese market that weakened the Indian rupee later became steady owing to persistent dollar demand from stateowned banks and importers which acted as a positive factor for the currency.

MCX

MCX Gold Aug 2015 Sell @ 26200 TP @ 26070

 

MCX Silver Sep 2015 Sell @ 35900 TP @ 35750

 

MCX Crude Oil Jul 2015 Sell @ 3320 TP @ 3290.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – July 12, 2015

EURUSD is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 1.0819 and 1.1467. As long as 1.0819 support holds, the uptrend from 1.0462 could be expected to resume, and another rise towards 1.3000 is still possible. However, a breakdown below 1.0819 support will indicate that the pair remains in long term downtrend from 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high) , then the following downward movement could bring price to 1.0000 zone.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – July 12, 2015

GBPUSD remains in uptrend from 1.4565, the price action from 1.5814 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Key support is at 1.5170, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and one more rise to 1.6500 area is still possible. Only break below 1.5170 support could signal completion of the uptrend.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – July 12, 2015

AUDUSD’s downward movement from 0.8162 extended to as low as 0.7371. Further decline is still possible after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 0.7000 area. Resistance is now at 0.7600, only break above this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation for the long term downtrend is underway, then the following upward movement could bring price back to 0.8000 zone.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – July 12, 2015

USDJPY remains in the long term uptrend from 75.57 (Oct 31, 2011), the fall from 125.85 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Support is located at the bottom of the price channel on daily chart. As long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and another rise towards 130.00 is still possible after consolidation. On the downside, a clear break below the channel support will indicate that the long term uptrend had completed at 125.85 already, then the following downward movement could bring price to 100.00 zone.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – July 12, 2015

USDCAD is facing 1.2835 resistance, a break of this level will indicate that the long term uptrend from 0.9632 (Sept 14, 2012 low) has resumed, then next target would be at 1.4000 area. Near term support is at 1.2500, only break below this level could bring price back to test 1.1919 key support.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – July 5, 2015

EURUSD continued its sideways movement in a range between 1.0819 and 1.1467. Key support is at 1.0819, as long as this level holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.0462, another rise towards 1.3000 could be expected after consolidation. On the downside, a breakdown below 1.0819 support will signal resumption of the long term downtrend from 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high), then deeper decline to 1.0000 area could be seen.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – July 5, 2015

GBPUSD is facing 1.5550 support, a breakdown below this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation for the uptrend from 1.4565 is underway, then deeper decline to 1.5300 area could be seen. On the upside, as long as 1.5550 support holds, the uptrend from 1.5170 could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.6500 zone.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – July 5, 2015

AUDUSD broke below 0.7532 support, indicating that the long term downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high) has resumed. Further decline could be seen after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 0.7000 area. Resistance is at 0.7740, only break above this level will indicate that lengthier consolidation for the long term downtrend is underway, then the following upward movement could bring price back to 0.8000 zone.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – July 5, 2015

USDJPY is in long term uptrend from 75.57 (Oct 31, 2011), the fall from 125.85 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Range trading between 120.00 and 125.85 would likely be seen over the next several weeks. Support is at 120.00, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and one more rise to 130.00 area is still possible after consolidation.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – July 5, 2015

USDCAD broke above 1.2563 resistance, indicating that the uptrend from 1.1919 has resumed. Further rise to test 1.2835 resistance could be seen, a break of this level will signal resumption of the long term uptrend from 0.9632 (Sept 14, 2012 low), then next target would be at 1.4000 area. Support is at 1.2400, only break below this level could trigger another fall towards 1.1500.

 

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – June 28, 2015

EURUSD moved sideways in a trading range between 1.0819 and 1.1467. As long as 1.0819 support holds, the sideways movement could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.0462, and further rise towards 1.3000 is still possible after consolidation. On the downside, a breakdown below 1.0819 support will indicate that the long term downtrend from 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high) has resumed, then the following downward movement could bring price to 1.0000 zone.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – June 28, 2015

GBPUSD is in uptrend from 1.5170, the fall from 1.5929 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Support is at 1.5550, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue and next target would be at 1.6500 area. On the downside, a breakdown below 1.5550 support will indicate that lengthier consolidation for the longer term uptrend from 1.4565 is needed, then deeper decline to 1.5300 area could be seen.

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – June 28, 2015

AUDUSD remains in long term downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high), the sideways movement in the range between 0.7532 and 0.8162 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. Key resistance is at 0.8162, as long as this level holds, the downtrend could be expected to resume, and one more fall to 0.7000 area is still possible. Only break above 0.8162 resistance could bring price back to 0.8800 zone.

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – June 28, 2015

USDJPY is in consolidation of the long term uptrend from 75.57 (Oct 31, 2011). Range trading between 120.00 and 125.85 would likely be seen over the next several weeks. As long as 120.00 support holds, one more rise to 130.00 area is still possible after consolidation.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – June 28, 2015

USDCAD is in downtrend from 1.2563. Further decline to test 1.1919 support could be expected, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the longer term downtrend from 1.2835, then next target would be at 1.1500 area.

 

US Dollar Index Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The US Dollar Index fell during the course of the week, testing the 94 level. We believe that the market is certainly going to pull back, and quite frankly start to begin to question whether or not the uptrend is an over. After all, we are starting to make a lower highs, which is indicative of a downtrend starting. However, we need to break down below the 93 level before we would become sellers. As far as long-term trades are concerned, we need to see what happens and 93 before we put any money into the market.

 

Gold Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

Gold markets initially fell during the course of the week, but then broke above the $1200 level. We believe that the gold markets will continue to grind between the 1160 level on the bottom, and the 1240 level on the top. With that, we believe that pullbacks will continue to offer buying opportunities, but quite frankly the longer-term traders will more than likely wait until the breakout to get involved. However, if you are a very long-term trader, you could buy physical gold for more of a retirement type of play.

 

Silver Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The silver markets initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but then turned back around to form a shooting star. With this being the case, long-term traders are more than likely going to struggle to be involved in this market because there so many supportive levels just below. Quite frankly, longer-term traders will be better off avoiding silver ounce it is choppy to say the least although it is starting to look like there might be buyers below. At this point in time, we are willing to sit on the sidelines.

 

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market went back and forth during the course of the week, ultimately forming a shooting star. However, we remain in a very tight range, between the $57 level on the bottom, and the $62 level on the top. Quite frankly, this is a market that looks like it has fallen asleep, and it’s not uncommon for the oil markets to simply go sideways during the course of the summer.

With this, we believe that the market will find support below, but eventually the buyers will have to step up in order to pushes market higher. We did break out above the $58 level previously, which of course is a very positive sign. If we drop from here, we are willing to buy short-term positions, but as far as long-term positions, we are very hesitant to get involved or put any real money to work.

Brent

The Brent markets initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but turned back around to fall below the $63 level. With that, the market looks like it’s ready to continue going lower, but the $62 level below is pretty supportive. We believe that the $60 level below is also supportive as well, and with that we are buyers of supportive candles if and when we finally get them. We believe that the market is trying to form some type of upward channel, and as long as we can stay above $60, we think that ultimately all you can do is buy this market.

The $66 level above is significant resistance, so if we can break above there we think that the market will then head to the $70 level. If we can break above the $70 level, we feel that the market will break out to much higher levels, probably reversing the trend to the downside completely. Remember, trend changes are very ugly events, and they are very choppy and difficult to deal with. We feel that’s what’s happening in this particular market.

 

NZD/USD  Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The NZD/USD pair fell during the course of the week, and even tested the 0.70 level for resistance. However, we continue to drop, and now it looks as if we are going to head towards the 0.75 handle given enough time. The New Zealand dollar is one of the weakest currencies that we trade, and we believe it will continue to go much lower given enough time. We have no interest whatsoever in buying this market, as there is a significant amount resistance all the way to the 0.72 handle.

 

EUR/GBP Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The EUR/GBP pair fell during the course of the week, as we continue to bounce around in a relatively small range. The 0.70 level below is significantly supportive though, so at this point in time it does not look like a market that we want to be involved in when it comes to longer-term trades. We have no interest in risking money in a market that simply doesn’t look like it’s ready to go anywhere. With this, we are on the sidelines and trading this short-term only at this point.

 

EUR/CHF Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The EUR/CHF pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found the 1.05 level to be far too resistive. With that, we feel that the market will probably drop from here, heading towards the 1.03 handle. However, that area is rather supportive, so it’s going to be very difficult for longer-term traders to be involved in this market as the market continues to show quite a bit of volatility but a very well defined and small trading range as shorter-term traders will continue to influence this market.

 

EUR/JPY Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The EUR/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but found the 140 level to be far too resistive. Because of this, we ended up falling down and forming a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a negative candle, and the fact that we formed one last week has us thinking that perhaps this market is ready to break down. A break down from here though, would send this to the 137 handle first, and then eventually the 135 handle. We have no interest in buying this market until of course we break above the top of the last few candles, which of course would be very bullish. Perhaps sending this market all the way to the 145 handle.

One thing that would have to be looked at is the fact that the Euro is continuing to strengthen against many other currencies. However, the Japanese yen has been selling off recently, and as a result we feel it’s only a matter time before this market breaks out although a pullback may be necessary. We believe that we should see buying opportunities below, especially near the aforementioned 135 handle.

The 145 level of course looks to be rather resistive, so getting above there might take a bit of work. However, once we get above there the market would continue to grind much higher. Ultimately, we are more bullish than bearish of this market but recognize that the 2 shooting stars in a row more than likely means that we have to take a bit of a break on the upside. However, that’s not to discourage the buyers simply because we have the need to build up momentum.

The 140 level is of course rather important, so having said that it makes sense that we might have to try to break out a couple of different times. With that, we have to be patient but we believe sooner or later we will get a nice buying opportunity that we anticipate seeing. For longer-term trades, we have no interest in selling.

 

USD/CHF Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The USD/CHF pair initially rallied during the course of the week but turned back around to fall to the 0.7175 handle. We believe that there is a significant amount of support all the way down to the 0.90 handle, and with that it’s going to be difficult to sell. We don’t really want to buy though, because quite frankly there’s no opportunity to buy a supportive looking candle Lake we would hope. With that, we are on the sidelines and believe that the USD/CHF pair will continue to be the domain of short-term traders.

 

USD/CAD Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the course of the week but bounced enough to form a hammer. However, there is a significant amount of resistance above, so at this point in time we feel that the market is going to be very difficult for longer-term traders to be involved in. While we do think that possibly this market goes higher, the truth of the matter is that it is far too volatile for a “buy-and-hold” situation. With this, we will leave the USD/CAD pair to the short-term traders.

 

USD/JPY Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The USD/JPY pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but as you can see the 125 level offered resistance yet again. By doing so, it pushed the market back down to form a bit of a shooting star which of course is a very negative sign. However, at the end of the day I still recognize that there is a significant amount of support just below the 122 handle, as we had previously formed an ascending triangle. It is quite common for the market to break out and then come back to the top of the ascending triangle in order to test for support.

Because of this, we will be looking for supportive candles in order to start buying as the longer-term trend in this pair is most certainly bullish. It’s difficult to sell this market, simply because the Bank of Japan continues to work against the value the Japanese yen anyway. Granted, the US dollar is continuing to fall against other currencies, especially the British pound, but at the end of the day this pair tends to move on its own.

Interest-rate differential should continue to favor the United States, as the Bank of Japan continues to liquefy the markets, and the Federal Reserve definitely looks like it’s going to raise interest rates at least once during the year. We believe that the Federal Reserve is of course beginning its rate tightening cycle, and as a result, the US dollar should continue to strengthen against such currencies as the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan should continue to buy Japanese Government Bonds, which of course drive down the value the yen as it is essentially the same thing as quantitative easing that we have seen around the world.

We believe that it is not until you get down below the 118 level that you could even remotely consider selling. At this point in time though, we believe that the market will eventually hit the 130 level given enough time, as the uptrend is still very much intact.

 

AUD/USD Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The AUD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, and as a result the market looks very choppy. We have no interest in placing longer-term trades in this marketplace, and as a result we are on the sidelines. If we can break above the 0.80 level, we feel that the trend will have changed to the upside, but really at this point time we don’t think it’s going to happen. We should also point out that a move below the 0.75 level would be massively bearish, and of course have us selling.

 

GBP/USD Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The GBP/USD pair initially fell during the course of the week, but found the 1.55 level to be far too supportive to continue to fall from here. That being the case, the market looks like by rising the buyers stepped back into the marketplace and asserted their control. In fact, we closed well above the 1.58 level, which of course was a massive resistance barrier. Ultimately, that means to us that the trend has changed, and it’s only a matter of time before we start to see buyers step back into the market every time we pullback.

We believe that the market should eventually go to the 1.60 level, and then to the 1.70 level above there. Ultimately, we think that the markets will show quite a bit of proclivity to the upside as the British pound in general has been strong against most other currencies as the British pound continues to be one of the most favored currencies by Forex traders.

Even if we pullback from here, as long as we can stay above the 1.55 level, we feel that it’s only a matter of time before we go higher and therefore we would look at pullbacks as potential value in the Pound. The US dollar is somewhat mixed, but it should be said that it looks like it’s starting to lose its luster against most European currencies, which of course the British pound will be any different. With that being the case, we can only follow the charts but we recognize that there is a lot of noise above. That noise will be overcome eventually in our opinion, so we will hold onto are long position.

On top of that, you can make an argument for an inverted head and shoulders been broken to the upside this past week, sell at that point in time we’ll see any reason for this market to not go higher as the technical signals certainly show that strength should continue to propel this market as this currency has been sold off far too much over the last year or 2.

 

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Analysis – June 22, 2015

The EUR/USD pair rose during the course of the week, testing the 1.14 level several times. We believe that the 1.15 level above being broken is a sign that the longer-term “buy-and-hold” mentality takes a fact. We believe the pullbacks offer buying opportunities as well, and we have absolutely no interest in selling this market until we get well below the 1.10 level, something that doesn’t look very likely at the moment. We believe that the breakout is coming, it’s only a matter of time, and then as a result we will continue to buy going forward.

EURUSD Weekly Analysis – June 21, 2015

EURUSD stays in the upward price channel on daily chart, and remains in uptrend from 1.0462. Support is at 1.0819, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and further rise to test 1.1533 resistance could be expected, a break of this level will confirm that the long term downtrend from 1.3993 (May 8, 2014 high) is complete, then the following upward movement could bring price to 1.3000 area. On the downside, a breakdown below 1.0819 support will signal completion of the uptrend from 1.0462, then next target would be at 1.0000 zone.

 

GBPUSD Weekly Analysis – June 21, 2015

GBPUSD broke above 1.5814 resistance, indicating that the uptrend from 1.4565 has resumed. Further rise could be expected over the next several weeks, and next target would be at 1.6500 area. Near term support is at 1.5550, as long as this level holds the uptrend will continue.

 

AUDUSD Weekly Analysis – June 21, 2015

AUDUSD moved sideways in a range between 0.7532 and 0.8162, the price action in the range is likely consolidation of the long term downtrend from 0.9504 (Jul 1, 2014 high), another fall towards 0.7000 is still possible after consolidation. Support is at 0.7532, a breakdown below this level could signal resumption of the downtrend. Resistance is at 0.8162, only break above this level could bring price back to 0.8800 zone.

 

USDJPY Weekly Analysis – June 21, 2015

USDJPY remains in uptrend from 75.57 (Oct 31, 2011), the fall from 125.85 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Range trading between 120.00 and 125.85 is possible over the next several weeks. As long as 120.00 support holds, the uptrend could be expected to resume, and one more rise to 130.00 area is still possible after consolidation.

 

USDCAD Weekly Analysis – June 21, 2015

USDCAD remains in downtrend from 1.2563, and the fall extended to as low as 1.2127. Further decline to test 1.1919 support would likely be seen, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the longer term downtrend from 1.2835, then next target would be at 1.1500 area.

 

USD/CAD Technical Analysis – June 16, 2015

The USD/CAD pair initially rose during the course of the session on Monday, but turned back around just below the 1.24 level. By doing so, they ended up forming a shooting star for the day, and it still looks as if the market isn’t quite ready to make a move yet. With that, we are on the sidelines and waiting for some type of reasonable signal to follow. At this moment in time though, it does not look like a market that we want to be involved in. The fact that the oil markets are going sideways is not helping the situation either.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis – June 16, 2015

The USD/JPY pair initially broke higher during the session on Monday, but continues to see a lot of consolidation in this general vicinity. However, this isn’t a market that we are willing to sell. We are simply looking for opportunities to buy the US dollar against the Japanese yen, we just don’t have the signal quite yet. Longer-term, we still believe that the pair goes to the 130 level, but it is going to take a bit of momentum. With this, we are bullish but on the sidelines at the moment and waiting for either a supportive candle or an impulsive candle higher.

 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis – June 16, 2015

The AUD/USD pair broke higher during the course of the day on Monday, but remains below the 0.78 level that looks to be rather resistive. If we can break above there, we should then head to the 0.80 level, which is the upper boundary of the larger consolidation area. However, we believe that the market could very well pullback from here but with the market been so volatile, and the gold markets looking much the same, we are simply going to sit on the sidelines when it comes to the Australian dollar in the short-term. However, we will be watching.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis – June 16, 2015

The GBP/USD pair initially fell during the course of the session on Monday, but found enough support at the 1.55 level to turn things back around and form a nice-looking hammer. With that, it appears that the market is ready to continue going higher and as a result we are most certainly buyers. We believe that pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities, and that buyers will reemerge every time we pullback. However, we believe that the 1.58 level remains pretty significant as far as resistance is concerned, so we think the upside is somewhat limited in the short-term. Ultimately though, we believe that the British pound should continue to go much higher.
We believe that this market cannot be sold, simply because the British pound seems to be one of the best performing currencies in the world right now. Granted, it tends to do better against other currencies than the US dollar, but we also believe that this is simply a measurement of the overall strength of the currency itself, the British pound.
We believe that the market will eventually break out above the 1.58 level, and then head to the 1.60 level. We believe that this market not only goes to the 1.60 level, but goes much higher. We believe that the longer-term buy-and-hold mentality has come back and as a result we are not interested in selling, at least until we get well below the 1.52 handle. If we get below there, we believe that the market will then head down to the 1.50 level given enough time.
If we got below there, we believe that the market will then have completely broken and turned around. However, we have a hard time believing that’s going to happen anytime soon, so at that point in time we find ourselves as “buy only” because it would take so much to break this pair down at this point. The US dollar of course has been very strong, but this might be the one anomaly in the currency markets that offers a way to sell the greenback.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis – June 16, 2015

The EUR/USD pair gapped lower at the open on Monday, but then turned back around to fill that gap. By filling that gap, we now look as if we are going to try to break out to the upside, but right now the market has been very choppy and has been consolidating between the 1.11 level and the 1.14 level above. As long as we continue to bounce around, we will buy dips, because we believe ultimately this market will break out to the upside but recognize that it is not a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type situation into we get above the 1.15 barrier.

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